The first stage of statistical research. Statistical observation is the first stage of statistical research, which is a scientifically organized collection of data on the studied phenomena and processes of social life.

Statistical Research (SI) allows you to get an idea of a particular phenomenon, study its size, level, and identify patterns. The subject of SI can be public health, organization medical care, environmental factors affecting health, etc.

When carrying out SI, can be used 2 methodological approaches:

1) the study of the intensity of the phenomenon in the environment, the prevalence of the phenomenon, the identification of trends in the state of health of the population - are carried out on general populations or large enough sample populations, which make it possible to obtain intensive indicators and reasonably transfer the obtained data to the entire general population

2) conducting strictly planned studies to study individual factors without identifying the intensity of the phenomenon in the environment - as a rule, they are carried out on small populations in order to identify new factors, study unknown or little-known cause-and-effect relationships

Stages statistical research:

Stage 1. Drawing up a plan and research program- is preparatory, it determines the purpose and objectives of the study, draws up a plan and program of the study, develops a program for the summary of statistical material and resolves organizational issues.

A) the purpose and objectives of the study should be clearly formulated; the goal determines the main direction of research and is, as a rule, not only theoretical, but also practical, it is formulated clearly, clearly, unambiguously; to reveal the set goal, research tasks are determined.

B) it is necessary to study the literature on this topic.

C) it is necessary to develop Organizational plan - provides for the definition of 1) the place (administrative-territorial boundaries of the observation), 2) the time (specific terms for the observation, the development and analysis of the material) and 3) the research subject (organizers, performers, methodological and organizational leadership, sources of research funding).

D) development Study plan - includes a definition:

- the object of research (statistical population);

- the scope of the study (continuous, non-continuous);

- types (current, one-time);

- ways of collecting statistical information.

D) it is necessary to make Research program (observation) - includes:

- determination of the observation unit;

- a list of issues (accounting signs) to be registered in relation to each observation unit

- development of an individual accounting (registration) form with a list of issues and signs to be taken into account;

- development of layouts of tables, which are then entered into the results of the study.

For each observation unit, a separate form is filled out, it contains the passport part, clearly formulated program questions posed in a certain sequence and the date of filling out the document. As registration forms, registration medical forms used in the practice of medical and preventive institutions can be used.

Sources of information can be other medical documents (case histories and individual cards of an outpatient patient, child development histories, birth histories), reporting forms of medical institutions, etc.

To ensure the possibility of statistical development of data from these documents, the information is copied onto specially developed accounting forms, the content of which is determined in each individual case in accordance with the research objectives.

At present, in connection with the computer processing of observation results using a computer, program questions can be formalized , When questions in the accounting document are posed as an alternative (yes, no) , Or, ready-made answers are offered, from which you should choose a specific answer.

E) it is necessary to draw up a program for the summary of the data obtained, which includes the establishment of the principles of grouping, the allocation of grouping signs , Determination of combinations of these features, preparation of layouts of statistical tables.

Stage 2. Collection of material (statistical observation)- - consists in the registration of individual cases of the phenomenon under study and the registration signs characterizing them in registration forms. Before and during the execution of this work, instructions (oral or written) are carried out for the observers, providing them with registration forms.

A statistical observation can be:

A ) by time:

1) Current- the phenomenon is studied for a certain period of time (week, quarter , Year, etc.) by daily registration of the phenomenon as each case arises (registration of the number of births , Dead, sick , Discharged from the hospital). In this way, rapidly changing phenomena are taken into account.

2) A one-time- statistical data are collected at a certain (critical) moment in time (population census, study of the physical development of children, preventive examinations of the population). One-time registration reflects the state of the phenomenon at the time of study, is used to study slowly changing phenomena.

The choice of the type of observation in time is determined by the purpose and objectives of the study (characteristics of hospitalized patients can be obtained as a result of the current registration of those who left the hospital - current observation or by a one-day census of patients in the hospital - a one-time observation).

B) depending on the completeness of the coverage of the phenomenon under study:

1) Solid- all observation units included in the population are studied, that is, the general population. It is carried out in order to establish the absolute size of the phenomenon (total population, total number of births or deaths). It is also used in cases where information is necessary for operational work (registration of infectious diseases, the workload of doctors, etc.)

2) Discontinuous- only part of the general population is studied, it is divided into several types:

1. Monographic method- gives detailed description individual, characteristic in any respect units of the aggregate and a deep, comprehensive description of objects.

2. Main array method- involves the study of those objects in which the vast majority of observation units are concentrated. The disadvantage of this method is that a part of the population remains uncovered by the study, although it is small in size, but which can differ significantly from the main array.

3. Questionnaire method Is the collection of statistical data using specially designed questionnaires addressed to a specific circle of people. This research is based on the principle of voluntariness, therefore the return of the questionnaires is often incomplete. Often the answers to the questions posed bear the imprint of subjectivity and randomness. This method is used to obtain an approximate description of the phenomenon under study.

4. Selective method- the most common method, comes down to the study of a certain specially selected part of the observation units to characterize the entire general population. The advantage of this method is that results are obtained with a high degree of reliability, as well as significantly lower cost. The study employs fewer performers , Moreover, it is less time consuming. In medical statistics, the role and place of the sampling method are especially great, since medical workers they usually deal only with a part of the phenomenon being studied (they study a group of patients with a particular disease, analyze the work of individual departments).

C) by the method of obtaining information in the course of the conduct and the nature of its implementation

1. Direct observation(clinical examination of patients , Conducting laboratory , Instrumental research , Anthropometric measurements, etc.)

2. Sociological methods: interview method (face-to-face survey), questionnaires (correspondence survey - anonymous or non-anonymous), etc.;

3. Documentary research(copying of information from accounting and reporting medical documents, information from official statistics of institutions and organizations.)

Stage 3. Material development, statistical grouping and summary- starts with checking and refining the number of observations , Completeness and correctness of the information received , Identification and elimination of errors, duplicate records, etc.

For the correct development of the material, apply Encryption of primary accounting documents, That is, the designation of each feature and its group with a sign - alphabetic or digital. Encryption is a technique , Facilitates and accelerates material development , Improving quality, design accuracy. Ciphers - conventional designations - are generated arbitrarily. When encrypting diagnoses, it is recommended to use the international nomenclature and classification of diseases; when encrypting professions - a vocabulary of professions.

The advantage of encryption is that, if necessary, after the end of the main development, you can return to the material for development in order to find out new relationships and dependencies. Encrypted credentials make it easier and faster , Than unencrypted. After checking, the characteristics are grouped.

Grouping - dismemberment of the set of studied data into homogeneous , Typical groups according to the most essential characteristics. The grouping can be carried out according to qualitative and quantitative criteria. The choice of a grouping attribute depends on the nature of the studied population and the objectives of the study.

A) Typological grouping produced according to qualitative (descriptive, attributive) characteristics (gender , Occupation, disease groups)

B) Variational grouping(by quantitative characteristics) is carried out on the basis of the numerical dimensions of the characteristic (age , Duration of illness, duration of treatment, etc.). Quantitative grouping requires a solution to the issue of the size of the grouping interval: the interval can be equal, and in some cases - unequal, even include the so-called open groups (when grouping by age, open groups can be defined: up to 1 year, 50 years and older).

When determining the number of groups, one proceeds from the goal and objectives of the study. It is necessary that the groupings be able to reveal the patterns of the phenomenon under study. A large number of groups can lead to excessive crushing of the material, unnecessary detailing. A small number of groups tend to blur characteristics.

Having finished grouping the material, proceed to Summary- generalization of isolated cases , Obtained as a result of statistical research, in certain groups, their counting and entering into the layouts of tables.

A summary of statistical material is carried out using statistical tables. table , Not filled with numbers , Called Layout.

Statistical tables are brown , Chronological, territorial.

A table has a subject and a predicate. The statistical subject is usually placed in horizontal lines on the left side of the table and reflects the main, main characteristic. The statistical predicate is placed from left to right in vertical columns and reflects additional accounting signs.

Statistical tables are divided into:

A) Simple- the numerical distribution of the material according to one characteristic is presented , The constituent parts of it. A simple table usually contains a simple list or summary of the entirety of the phenomenon under study.

B) Group- a combination of two features is presented in connection with each other

V) Combination- the distribution of material is given according to three or more interrelated signs

When compiling tables, certain requirements must be met:

- each table should have a title that reflects its content;

- within the table, all columns should also have clear short names;

- when filling out the table, all cells of the table must contain the corresponding numerical data. The cells of the table that remain empty due to the absence of this combination are crossed out ("-"), and in the absence of information in the cell, "n." or "…";

- after filling in the table in the lower horizontal row and in the last vertical column on the right, the vertical columns and horizontal rows are summed up.

- tables should have a single sequential numbering.

For studies with a small number of observations, the summary is done manually. All accounting documents are divided into groups in accordance with the cipher of the attribute. Further, the calculation and recording of data is carried out in the corresponding cell of the table. At present, computers are widely used in sorting and summarizing the material. . Which make it possible not only to sort the material according to the studied characteristics , But perform calculations of indicators.

Stage 4. Statistical analysis of the phenomenon under study, formulation of conclusions- a critical stage of the study, at which the calculation of statistical indicators (frequency , Structures , Average sizes of the studied phenomenon), their graphic representation is given , Studying dynamics , Trends, connections between phenomena are established . Forecasts are given, etc. The analysis involves the interpretation of the data obtained, the assessment of the reliability of the research results. In conclusion, conclusions are drawn.

Stage 5. Literary processing and presentation of the results obtained- is final, assumes the final formulation of the results of a statistical study. The results can be presented in the form of an article, report, report , Dissertations, etc. For each type of design, there are certain requirements, Which must be observed in the literary processing of the results of a statistical study.

The results of medical and statistical research are being introduced into public health practice. Possible different options use of research results: familiarization with the results of a wide audience of medical and scientific workers; preparation of instructional and methodological documents; execution of a rationalization proposal and others

Upon completion of the statistical study, recommendations and management decisions are developed, the results of the study are introduced into practice, and the effectiveness is assessed.

In carrying out a statistical study, the most important element is adherence to a strict sequence in the implementation of these stages.

To get an idea of a particular phenomenon, to draw conclusions, it is necessary to conduct a statistical study. The subject of statistical research in health care and medicine can be the health of the population, the organization of medical care, various sections of the activities of medical and preventive institutions, environmental factors that affect the state of health.

The methodological sequence of performing a statistical study consists of certain stages.

Stage 1. Drawing up a plan and research program.

Stage 2. Collection of material (statistical observation).

Stage 3. Material development, statistical grouping and summary

Stage 4. Statistical analysis of the phenomenon under study, formulation of conclusions.

Stage 5. Literary processing and presentation of the results obtained.

Upon completion of the statistical study, recommendations and management decisions are developed, the results of the study are introduced into practice, and the effectiveness is assessed.

In carrying out a statistical study, the most important element is adherence to a strict sequence in the implementation of these stages.

First step statistical research - drawing up a plan and a program - is preparatory, which determines the purpose and objectives of the research, draws up a plan and research program, develops a program for the summary of statistical material and resolves organizational issues.

When embarking on a statistical study, one should accurately and clearly formulate the goal and objectives of the study, and study the literature on this topic.

The goal determines the main direction of research and is, as a rule, not only theoretical, but also practical. The goal is formulated clearly, clearly, unambiguously.

To reveal the set goal, research tasks are determined.

An important point preparatory phase is the development of an organizational plan. The organizational plan of the research provides for the determination of the place (administrative-territorial boundaries of observation), time (specific terms for the observation, development and analysis of the material) and the subject of the research (organizers, performers, methodological and organizational leadership, sources of research funding).

Pl a n research d ov a niya includes:

Determination of the research object (statistical population);

Research volume (continuous, non-continuous);

Types (current, one-time);

Methods for collecting statistical information. Research program includes:

Definition of the observation unit;

List of issues (accounting signs) to be registered in relation to each observation unit *

Development of an individual accounting (registration) form with a list of issues and signs to be taken into account;

Development of table layouts, into which the research results are then entered.

For each observation unit, a separate form is filled out, it contains the passport part, clearly formulated program questions posed in a certain sequence and the date of filling out the document.

The registration forms used in the practice of medical and preventive institutions can be used as registration forms.

At present, in connection with the computer processing of observation results using a computer, program questions can be formalized , when questions in the accounting document are posed as an alternative (yes, no) , or ready-made answers are offered, from which you should choose a specific answer.

At the first stage of the statistical study, along with the observation program, programs * are compiled for a summary of the data obtained, which includes the establishment of grouping principles, the allocation of grouping signs , determination of combinations of these features, preparation of layouts of statistical tables.

Second phase- collection of statistical material (statistical observation) - consists in registering individual cases of the phenomenon under study and their characteristic features in registration forms. Before and during the execution of this work, instructions (oral or written) are carried out for the observers, providing them with registration forms.

In time, statistical observation can be current and one-time.

At current obs NS denia the phenomenon is studied for a certain period of time (week, quarter , year, etc.) by recording the phenomenon on a daily basis as each case occurs. An example of ongoing monitoring is counting the number of births , deceased, sick , discharged from the hospital, etc. This is how rapidly changing phenomena are taken into account.

At one-time obs NS denia statistics are collected at a certain (critical) point in time. One-time observation are: population census, study of the physical development of children, registration of hospital beds for horses of the year, certification of medical institutions, etc. This type includes preventive examinations of the population. One-time registration reflects the state of the phenomenon at the time of study. This type of observation is used to study slowly changing phenomena.

The choice of the type of observation in time is determined by the purpose and objectives of the study. For example, the characteristics of hospitalized patients can be obtained as a result of the current registration of those who left the hospital (current observation) or by means of a one-day census of patients in the hospital (one-time observation).

Depending on the completeness of the coverage of the phenomenon under study, a distinction is made between continuous and non-continuous research.

At solid the study examines all the observation units included in the population, i.e. general population. A continuous study is carried out in order to establish the absolute size of the phenomenon, for example, the total population, the total number of births or deaths, the total number of patients with this or that disease, etc. , the load of doctors, etc.)

At discontinuous the study examines only part of the general population. It is subdivided into several types: questionnaire, monographic, main array, selective. The most common method in medical research is the selective method.

Monographic method- gives a detailed description of individual units of the aggregate characteristic in any respect and a deep, comprehensive description of objects.

Main array method- involves the study of those objects in which the vast majority of observation units are concentrated. The disadvantage of this method is that a part of the population remains uncovered by the study, although it is small in size, but which can differ significantly from the main array.

Questionnaire method is the collection of statistical data using specially designed questionnaires addressed to a specific circle of people. This research is based on the principle of voluntariness, therefore the return of the questionnaires is often incomplete. Often the answers to the questions posed bear the imprint of subjectivity and randomness. This method is used to obtain an approximate description of the phenomenon under study.

Selective method- comes down to the study of a certain specially selected part of observation units to characterize the entire general population. The advantage of this method is that results are obtained with a high degree of reliability, as well as significantly lower cost. The study employs fewer performers , in addition, it is less time consuming.

In medical statistics, the role and place of the sampling method are especially great, since medical workers usually deal only with a part of the phenomenon being studied: they study a group of patients with a particular disease, analyze the work of individual departments and medical institutions , assess the quality of certain events, etc.

According to the method of obtaining information in the course of statistical observation and the nature of its implementation, several types are distinguished:

1) direct observation(clinical examination of patients , laboratory , instrumental research , anthropometric measurements, etc.)

2) sociological methods: interview method (face-to-face survey), questionnaires (correspondence survey - anonymous or non-anonymous), etc.;

3) documentary research a nie(copying of information from accounting and reporting medical documents, information from official statistics of institutions and organizations.)

Third stage- grouping and summary of material - begins with checking and specifying the number of observations , completeness and correctness of the information received , identification and elimination of errors, duplicate records, etc.

For the correct development of the material, encryption of primary accounting documents is used , those. designation of each feature and its group by a sign - alphabetic or digital. Encryption is a technique , facilitating and accelerating the development of material , increasing the quality, accuracy of development. Ciphers - conventional designations - are generated arbitrarily. When encrypting diagnoses, it is recommended to use the international nomenclature and classification of diseases; when encrypting professions - a vocabulary of professions.

The advantage of encryption is that, if necessary, after the end of the main development, you can return to the material for development in order to find out new relationships and dependencies. Encrypted credentials make it easier and faster , than unencrypted. After checking, the characteristics are grouped.

Grouping- dismemberment of the set of studied data into homogeneous , typical groups according to the most essential characteristics. The grouping can be carried out according to qualitative and quantitative criteria. The choice of a grouping attribute depends on the nature of the studied population and the objectives of the study.

Typological grouping is made according to qualitative (descriptive, attributive) characteristics, for example, by gender , profession, groups of the disease, the severity of the course of the disease, postoperative complications, etc.

Grouping by quantitative (variation) characteristics is carried out on the basis of the numerical dimensions of the characteristic , for example , by age , duration of illness, duration of treatment, etc. Quantitative grouping requires a solution to the issue of the size of the grouping interval: the interval can be equal, and in some cases - unequal, even include the so-called open groups.

For example , when grouped by age, open groups can be defined: up to 1 year . 50 and older.

Having finished the grouping of the material, they proceed to the summary.

WITH vodka- generalization of isolated cases , obtained as a result of statistical research, into certain groups, their counting and entering into the layouts of tables.

A summary of statistical material is carried out using statistical tables. table , not filled with numbers , called a layout.

Statistical tables are brown , chronological, territorial.

Statistical tables are divided into simple , group and combination.

V simple tables the numerical distribution of the material according to one characteristic is presented , its constituent parts (Table 1). A simple table usually contains a simple list or summary of the entirety of the phenomenon under study.

Table 1

Distribution of deaths in hospital N. by age

V group tables the combination of two features in connection with each other is presented (Table 2).

table 2

Distribution of deaths in N.'s hospital by sex and age

V combin a qi O these tables the distribution of the material according to three or more interrelated characteristics is given (Table 3).

Table 3

Distribution of deaths in N.'s hospital with different diseases by age and gender

Diagnosis of the underlying disease	Age
0-14	15-19	20-39	40-59	60 and>	Total
m	f	m	f	m	f	m	f	m	f	m	f	m + f
Diseases of the circulatory system.	-	-	-	-
Injury and poisoning		-		-					-
Malignancies. neoplasms.	-	-	-	-	-	-
Others are forgotten.	-	-	-	-
All sick.		-		-

When compiling tables, certain requirements must be met:

Each table should have a title that reflects its content;

Within the table, all columns should also have clear, concise titles;

When filling out the table, all cells of the table must contain the corresponding numerical data. The cells of the table that remain empty due to the absence of this combination are crossed out ("-"), and in the absence of information, "n.s." is put in the cell. or "...";

After filling the table in the lower horizontal row and in the last vertical column on the right, the vertical columns and horizontal rows are summed up.

Tables should be numbered consistently.

At present, computers are widely used in sorting and summarizing the material. . which allow not only sorting the material according to the studied characteristics , but perform calculations of indicators.

Fourth stage- statistical analysis - is a crucial stage of the study. At this stage, statistical indicators are calculated (frequencies , structures , average sizes of the studied phenomenon), their graphic representation is given , the dynamics of , trends, connections are established between phenomena . forecasts are given, etc. The analysis involves the interpretation of the data obtained, the assessment of the reliability of the research results. In conclusion, conclusions are drawn.

Fifth stage- literary processing is final. It involves the finalization of the results of a statistical study. The results can be presented in the form of an article, report, report , dissertations, etc. For each type of registration, there are certain requirements , which must be observed in the literary processing of the results of a statistical study.

The results of medical and statistical research are being introduced into public health practice. There are various options for using the research results: familiarization with the results of a wide audience of medical and scientific workers; preparation of instructional and methodological documents; registration of rationalization proposals and others.

QUESTIONS TO THE EXAM

By discipline "Statistics"

Section 1. General statistics

The subject of statistical science and the tasks of statistics on the present stage.

Complete and reliable statistical information is the necessary basis on which the economic management process is based. Making managerial decisions at all levels - from national or regional to the level of an individual corporation or private firm - is impossible without proper statistical support. It is statistical data that make it possible to determine the volumes of gross domestic product and national income, identify the main trends in the development of sectors of the economy, assess the level of inflation, analyze the state of financial and commodity markets, study the standard of living of the population and other socio-economic phenomena and processes.

Statistics is a science that studies the quantitative side of mass phenomena and processes in an inextricable connection with their qualitative side, the quantitative expression of the laws of social development in specific conditions of place and time.

The techniques and methods of collecting, processing and analyzing data used at all stages of the research are the subject of study of the general theory of statistics, which is the basic branch of statistical science. The methodology developed by her is applied in macroeconomic statistics, sectoral statistics (industry, Agriculture, trade and others), population statistics, social statistics and other statistical sectors.

Statistical aggregate, its types. Units of the aggregate and the classification of their characteristics.

The statistical population is Natural resources peoples, populations and natural phenomena, taken together within certain boundaries of place and time, affect the economic life of society. It is a single whole, composed of its separate units. Each of which can be described by a number of properties and features that they possess. Each of the features of the properties of units of a statistical population reflects a specific feature that characterizes a given unit of the population.

Sign - a feature of the unit. the aggregate. Choice of units the aggregate, the list of characteristics that characterize depends on the purpose and objectives of this statistical study.

Unit stat. the aggregates form together a single whole in a number of properties and features that differ from each other. These differences are called trait variation. Variation is possible under the influence of external factors.

Feature classification:

Qualitative (attribute) are determined by the presence or absence of any quality

Quantitative expressed in numbers

Discrete ones take an integer value - continuous ones take any real value.

The method of statistics and the main stages of statistical research.

Statistics has its own system of techniques, methods and research methods aimed at methods of commercial laws, manifestation in the structure, dynamics (development) and interconnection of social phenomena.

The main technique of statistical research. 3 stages:

1) stat. observation

2) summary and grouping of results

3) analysis of the obtained data

Mass observation method (law large numbers) is carried out by the scientific and organizational collection of information, the study of socio-economic processes or phenomena (population census).

The grouping method distributes the entire mass into one-off groups and subgroups. The results are calculated for each group and subgroup with the presentation of the results in the form of tables. The processing of statistical indicators and analysis of the results are carried out to obtain reasonable conclusions about the state of the study of phenomena and patterns economic development... Conclusions are drawn up in text form and accompanied by graphs and tables.

The Ministry of Statistics includes: regional, city statistics department, district statistics department. The composition of the Min. stat. includes: analytical, information-resource and registration standards and classification of the organization stat. observations and balances, stat. finance balance of payments, stat. prices, goods, markets, services.

To obtain statistical information, bodies of state and departmental statistics, as well as commercial structures, conduct various kinds of statistical research. The process of statistical research includes three main stages: collection of data, their summary and grouping, analysis and calculation of generalized indicators.

The results and quality of all subsequent work largely depend on how the primary statistical material is collected, how it is processed and grouped. Insufficient elaboration of the program-methodological and organizational aspects of statistical observation, the lack of logical and arithmetic control of the collected data, non-observance of the principles of group formation can ultimately lead to absolutely erroneous conclusions.

The final, analytical stage of the study is no less difficult, laborious and responsible. At this stage, the average indicators and distribution indicators are calculated, the structure of the population is analyzed, the dynamics and relationships between the studied phenomena and processes are investigated.

INTRODUCTION

The main stages and methods of statistical research

The most important economic indices and their relationships

Problem number 1

CONCLUSION

BIBLIOGRAPHIC LIST

introduction

The growing interest in statistics is caused by the current stage of economic development in the country, the formation of market relations. This requires deep economic knowledge in the collection, processing and analysis of economic information.

Statistical literacy is essential part of vocational training every economist, financier, sociologist, political scientist, as well as any specialist dealing with the analysis of mass phenomena, be it socio-social, economic, technical, scientific and others. The work of these groups of specialists is inevitably associated with the collection, development and analysis of statistical (mass) data. Often they themselves have to conduct statistical analysis. different types and focus or get acquainted with the results of statistical analysis performed by others. At present, an employee employed in any field of science, technology, production, business, etc., related to the study of mass phenomena, is required to be at least a statistically literate person. Ultimately, it is impossible to successfully specialize in many disciplines without taking a course in statistics. Therefore, familiarity with the general categories, principles and methodology of statistical analysis is essential.

As you know, for the statistical practice of the Russian Federation and the CIS countries in last years the most important issue was the adequate informational reflection of new socio-economic phenomena. This, in particular, includes the organization of obtaining and analyzing data characterizing the change in forms of ownership and the process of privatization, non-state employment of the population and unemployment, the activities of market financial and credit structures and radical reform of the tax system, new types of migration of citizens and support for the emerging poor. social groups and much more. In addition, in order to track the implementation of market relations and the emerging realities of serious adjustments, they demanded a system of indicators, collection and development of data in the traditional areas of statistical observation: for taking into account the main results of industrial and agricultural production, domestic and foreign trade, activities of social facilities, etc. etc. At the same time, the urgent need to obtain adequate and unambiguous information is now systematically increasing.

Per recent times approaches to the organization of statistical observation of the socio-economic phenomena of life have not undergone significant changes.

.The main stages and methods of statistical research

Observation as First stage research is associated with the collection of baseline data on the issue under study. It is characteristic of many sciences. However, each science has its own specifics, differing in its observations. Therefore, not every observation is statistical.

Statistical research is scientifically organized by a single program collection, summary and analysis of data (facts) on socio-economic, demographic and other phenomena and processes public life in the state with the registration of their most significant features in the accounting documentation.

Distinctive features (specificity) of statistical research are: purposefulness, organization, mass character, consistency (complexity), comparability, documentation, controllability, practicality.

In general, a statistical study should:

ü Have a socially useful goal and universal (state) significance;

ü Relate to the subject of statistics in the specific conditions of its place and time;

ü Express the statistical type of accounting (not accounting and not operational);

ü Carried out according to a pre-developed program with its scientifically grounded methodological and other support;

ü Collect mass data (facts), which reflects the entire set of causal and other factors that characterize the phenomenon in many ways;

ü Register in the form of accounting documents of the established form;

ü Ensure the absence of observation errors or reduce them to the possible minimum;

ü Provide certain quality criteria and methods for monitoring the collected data, ensuring their reliability, completeness and meaningfulness;

ü Focus on cost-effective data collection and processing technology;

ü To be a reliable information base for all subsequent stages of statistical research and all users of statistical information.

Studies that do not meet these requirements are not statistical. Statistical studies are not, for example, observations and studies: mothers playing a child (personal question); spectators at the theatrical performance (there is no registration documentation for the show); a scientist for physical and chemical experiments with their measurements, calculations and documentary registration (not mass-public data); doctor for patients with medical records (operational records); accountant for the movement of funds in the bank account of the enterprise (accounting); journalists for public and private life of government officials or other celebrities (not a subject of statistics).

Statistical population - a set of units with mass character, typicality, qualitative homogeneity and the presence of variation.

The statistical population consists of materially existing objects (workers, enterprises, countries, regions), is the object of statistical research.

Statistical observation is the first stage of statistical research, which is a scientifically organized collection of data on the studied phenomena and processes of social life.

Stage 1. Statistical research begins with the formation of a primary statistical information base for the selected set of indicators.

ü Conducting statistical observations.

ü Use of official government and corporate (branded) sources.

ü Use of scientific statistical research in journals, newspapers, monographs, etc.

ü Usage electronic means information (Internet, CD, floppy disks, etc.).

Stage 2. Primary generalization and grouping of statistical data.

ü Summaries, groupings, histograms, polygons, cumulates (ogives), frequency (frequency) distribution graphs.

ü Formation of series of dynamics and their primary analysis. Graphical forecast (with the concept of "optimist", "pessimist", "realist").

ü Calculation of the K-th order moments (averages, variances, measures of skewness, measurement of kurtosis) in order to determine the indices of the center of expansion of the indices of variation, indices of skewness (asymmetry), indices of kurtosis (peakedness).

ü Formation and primary calculations of complex statistical indicators (relative, summary multilevel).

ü Formation and primary calculations of index indicators.

Stage 3. The next stage of statistical research includes the economic interpretation of the primary generalization.

ü Economic and financial assessment of the object of analysis.

ü Formation of anxiety (satisfaction) of economic and financial situations.

ü Warning about approaching the threshold statistical values in applied, usually macroeconomic problems.

ü Diversification of the primary statistical generalization of the obtained applied results according to the hierarchy of power, partnership, business.

Stage 4. Computer analysis of primary and generalized extended (volumetric) statistical data.

ü Variation analysis of extended statistics.

ü Analysis of the dynamics of extended statistics.

ü Analysis of relationships of extended statistics.

ü Multidimensional summaries and groupings.

Stage 5. Computer forecasting in the selected most important areas.

ü Method Least Squares(OLS).

ü Moving averages.

ü Technical analysis.

ü Summary analysis and forecast views with recommendations for management and investment adjustments.

Stage 6. Generalized analysis of the results obtained and checking them for reliability using statistical criteria.

Stage 7. The final stage of the statistical study is the adoption of management decisions.

2.The most important economic indices and their relationships

statistical research data public

A feature of the indices is to measure the role of individual factors in the dynamics of complex indicators. Many statistical indicators are interrelated, and this relationship is multiplicative, that is, it manifests itself in the fact that one indicator is the product of a number of others. For example, the turnover can be represented as the product of the quantity of products sold by the price (T = pq), the gross yield of a particular crop - as the product of yield per area (Wsb - UE), the volume of products produced - as the product of the number of workers and labor productivity ( q = wT), etc.

Relationships of the aggregate index. Any aggregate index is built on the principle of separate consideration of the influence of individual factors on the change in a complex indicator.

The aggregate price index reflects the change in value due to price changes (when fixing the volume of production at the level of the reporting period), i.e. the price index is factorial in relation to the value index:

Calculated for complex interrelated indicators, which are the product of two (or more) factors, the indices should be in the same relationship as the indicators themselves.

The relationship of the individual index. The production volume index will be equal to the product of the index of the number of workers by the index of labor productivity, and the index gross collection individual crops - the product of the sown area index by the yield index, etc. This relationship is clearly manifested in individual indices. For the turnover (pq), price (p) and product quantity (q) for one commodity, the following ratio of indices:

For the volume of production (q), the number of workers and labor productivity w = q / T:

Relationships of general indices. V common indices factorial indices should be constructed in such a way as to provide the necessary relationship between factorial and effective indices.

For the same indices of turnover, prices and physical volume, this relationship can be provided as follows: option:

In both cases, the relationship is ensured, the price and volume indices in options I and II are not equivalent and, considered as factor indices, do not equally reflect the influence of these factors on the change in trade.

Relationships of other indices The number of interrelated indices also includes indices of variable composition (reflecting changes in the average levels of qualitative indicators), indices of structural changes and indices of fixed composition, between which there is the following relationship:

Based on the relationship between these indices, it is possible to analyze and determine the influence of the structural factor and changes in the indexed value itself on the dynamics of the average levels of the studied indicator.

There are relationships between the most important indices, which make it possible to obtain others on the basis of some indices. Knowing, for example, the value of chain indices for any period of time, you can calculate the basic indices. Conversely, if the basic indices are known, then by dividing one of them by the other, chain indices can be obtained. The existing relationships between the most important indices make it possible to reveal the influence of various factors on the change in the phenomenon under study, for example, the relationship between the index of the cost of production, the physical volume of production and prices. Other indices are also linked. So, the index of production costs is the product of the index of the cost of production and the index of the physical volume of production:. The index of time spent on production of products can be obtained as a result of multiplying the index of the physical volume of production and the inverse value of the index of labor intensity, i.e. labor productivity index:. There is an important relationship between the indices of the physical volume of production and the index of labor productivity. The labor productivity index is the ratio of the average output (in comparable prices) per unit of time (or per employee) in the current and base periods. The index of the physical volume of production is equal to the product of the labor productivity index by the index of labor time expenditures (or the number of employees). The relationship between individual indices can be used to identify individual factors that affect the phenomenon under study.

Build a structural grouping by revenue from product sales, forming five groups at equal intervals. Construct an analytical grouping of enterprises to study the relationship between revenue from product sales and the cost of sales, forming five groups of enterprises at equal intervals, characterizing each group and the totality as a whole: the number of enterprises; cost of goods sold - in total and on average per enterprise. According to the analytical group, calculate the empirical correlation ratio. The results of the grouping should be presented in the table and drawn conclusions.

conclusion

The task of socio-economic statistics as a branch of human activity has always been to provide information requests from the public, social structures, scientific institutions and management bodies about the ongoing processes and phenomena. it necessary condition studying, forecasting and making, on this basis, effective management decisions at the state and regional levels.

On the basis of statistical information, the state develops its economic and social policy, evaluates the results, makes socio-economic and criminological forecasts.

The ongoing changes in our country have caused the need for a qualitatively new statistics. In the conditions of the formation of a market economy, the primary and fundamental task of the development of theory and practice is to reform the general methodological and organizational foundations state statistics... It becomes the property of the entire society. It is pleasant to note that this also affected the data of legal statistics.

From the above, we can conclude that the organization of statistical work in our country at the present stage is based on the following basic principles:

a) centralized management of statistics;

b) uniform organization and methodology;

c) inextricable link between statistical bodies and government bodies;

d) the reliability and openness of the data of socio-economic statistics.

bibliographic list

1.Godin, A.M. Statistics: textbook / A.M. Godin. - Moscow: Dashkov and K °, 2012 .-- 451 p.

.Eliseeva, II Statistics: [advanced course]: a textbook for bachelors / II Eliseeva and others]. - Moscow: Yurayt: ID Yurayt, 2011 .-- 565 p.

.Nivorozhkina, L. I. Statistics: textbook for bachelors: textbook /. - Moscow: Dashkov and K º: Nauka-Spektr, 2011 .-- 415 p.

.Statistics: textbook / [I. I. Eliseeva and others]. - Moscow: Prospect, 2011 .-- 443 p.

.Statistics: theory and practice in Excel: educational / V. S. Lyalin, I. G. Zvereva, N. G. Nikiforova. - Moscow: Finance and statistics: Infra-M, 2012 .-- 446,

.Tumasyan, A.A. Industry statistics: a tutorial / A. A. Tumasyan, L. I. Vasilevskaya. - Minsk: New knowledge. - Moscow: Infra-M, 2012 .-- 429 p.

.Chetyrkin E.M. Statistical Methods forecasting. - M .: Statistics, 2014.

.Informatics in statistics: Dictionary-reference. - M .: Finance and statistics, 2013.

.Korolev Yu.G., Rabinovich RP.M., Shmoilova R.A. Statistical modeling and forecasting: Tutorial... - M .: MESI, 2011

.Socio-economic statistics course: Textbook for universities / Ed. M.G. Nazarova. - M .: Finstatinform, UNITY-DANA, 2011.

.Statistical Analysis in Economics / Ed. G.L. Gromyko. - M .: Moscow State University, 2012

Tutoring

Need help exploring a topic?

Our experts will advise or provide tutoring services on topics of interest to you.
Send a request with the indication of the topic right now to find out about the possibility of obtaining a consultation.