Introduction

1. Methods for obtaining source data

2. Statistical summary and grouping of primary data

2.1 Grouping

2.2 Determination of the average arithmetic and structural medium

2.3 Histogram and Cumulat

2.4 Cost of fixed assets

2.5 Product volume

3. Correlation analysis

3.1 Research of communication between factor and effective features. Building a correlation table

3.2 Determination of the degree of tightness

4. Regression analysis

4.1 Modeling

4.2 Prediction

Conclusion

Used literature and programs

Introduction

A statistical study of phenomena of public life begins with a stage of statistical observation, during which, in accordance with the cognitive objectives and tasks, an array of source data is formed about the object being studied, i.e. An information base of the study is formed, on which accounting and control, planning, statistical analysis and management are carried out. At this stage, mass surveillance methods based on " large numbers", Because the quantitative patterns of mass phenomena are clearly manifested when studying only a sufficiently large number of socio-economic phenomena and processes.

Any statistical observation should be prepared and is carried out on a well-developed plan, which includes issues of methodology, organization and technology collection techniques, controlling its quality and reliability. Thus, statistical observation must have a program and organizational plan. At the same time, it is necessary to solve questions about the method, form, form, means, timing, location of the organization and conduct of observation, etc., than, in turn, it is determined by its planning.

Statistical observation should be carried out not spontaneously, on occasion to occasion, but systematically: either continuously or periodically - at equal intervals. This is determined by the space-time variation of the studied socio-economic phenomena and processes.

Statistical observation can be conducted by state statistical authorities, research institutes, economic and analytical services of various organizational structures.

The second stage of statistical research is the statistical summary and grouping of statistical observation data. As a result of statistical observation, information about each unit of aggregate is obtained, which possesses numerous signs varying in time and space. Under these conditions, there is a need to systematize and summarize the results of statistical observation and obtaining on this basis the summary characteristics of the entire object with the help of generalizing indicators in order to determine the characteristic features, specific features of the statistical aggregate as a whole and its separate components and detect the patterns of the studied socially -Economic phenomena and processes. From the above, the need to report primary statistical material.

The statistical summary is carried out on a specially developed program that provides the completeness and accuracy of the results obtained. This program contains a list of groups to which the set of observation units may be broken down by individual features, as well as a system of indicators characterizing the totality of phenomena as a whole and its separate parts.

The third stage of statistical research is an analysis of statistical information. At this stage, according to the results of statistical research, conclusions are obtained, useful for practical actions, and is also predicting the studied phenomenon or process.

1. Methods for obtaining source data

In order to study the dependence of the volume of products from the value of fixed assets for the period 2006-2007. territorial body state statistics In the Chelyabinsk region, a statistical study of instrument-making enterprises was organized.

Percentage of 20% typical sample.

The object of statistical observation is a set of instrument-making enterprises in Chelyabinsk and the Chelyabinsk region. The reporting unit of statistical observation is instrument-making enterprise.

In order to improve the system of sample surveys of instrument-making enterprises, the Gositomstat of the Russian Federation has developed a target program.

According to the program in order to save resources, 20% of the total number of enterprises of the Chelyabinsk region acting on the date of work will be investigated. The activities of the program included a number of organizational and methodological and technological work, ensuring the preparation and conduct of selective surveys of instrument-making enterprises, the subject of which covers such a question as the dependence of the volume of products from the cost of fixed assets. In order to ensure proper procedures for the preparation of sample surveys of enterprises, the activities of the Program also includes issues of training personnel on survey and conducting outreach work. The implementation of the program is assumed to be implemented during 2008-2009. The results of the sample surveillance of instrument-making enterprises in Chelyabinsk and the Chelyabinsk region in two indicators (the volume of products and the cost of fixed assets) are shown in Table 1.

Table 1 . Main indicators of instrument-making enterprises in Chelyabinsk and Chelyabinsk region for the period 2006-2007.

Plant number	The cost of fixed assets,	Volume of products, million rubles.	Plant number	The cost of fixed assets,	Volume of products, million rubles.

2. Statistical summary and grouping of primary data

2.1 Grouping

According to statistical observation, it can be seen that the variation of features is manifested in comparatively narrow boundaries and the distribution is uniform. In this case, the grouping is built with equal intervals. The number of groups depends primarily on the degree of seducing the characteristic: the greater the sections of the sign (variation variation), the more groups can be formed. Below are formulas for building a statistical group.

T. K. The volume of the selective aggregate is not large, then to determine the number of groups we use the formula:

The magnitude of the interval h. according to the formula:

The value obtained by formula (1.2), which will be a step of the interval, are rounded (rounding should not differ from the source value by more than 10-15%). At the same time, for the first interval, the lower boundary will be, and the top - (+ h. ) etc. Thus, the lower boundary of the interval is equal to the upper boundary (I -1) interval. Abstract \u003e\u003e Philosophy

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Statistical Study (SI) Allows you to get an idea of \u200b\u200bone or another phenomenon, study its size, level, identify patterns. The subject can be the health of the population, organization medical care, Factors of the external environment affecting health and so on.

When conducting C can be used 2 methodical approaches:

1) study of the intensity of the phenomenon in the medium, the prevalence of the phenomenon, the identification of the state of health of the population - are carried out on the general aggregates or quite large in the number of selective sets, allowing to obtain intensive indicators and reasonably transfer the data to the entire General Aggursement

2) carrying out strictly planned studies on the study of individual factors without identifying the intensity of the phenomenon in the medium - are carried out, as a rule, on small in numbers in numbers in order to identify new factors, studying unknown or little-known causal relationships

Stages of statistical research:

Stage 1. Drawing up a plan and research program - It is preparatory, it is determined by the purpose and objectives of the study, the plan and the research program is drawn up, the program of the statistical material report is developed and organizational issues are being developed.

A) the purpose and objectives of the study should be clearly formulated; The goal determines the main direction of the study and wears, as a rule, not only theoretical, but also practical, it is formulated clearly, clearly, unequivocally; For the disclosure of the goal, the objectives of the study are determined.

B) It is necessary to learn the literature on this topic.

C) need to develop Organizational plan - Provides definitions 1) Places (administrative-territorial observation boundaries), 2) time (specific timing of the monitoring, development and analysis of material) and 3) Student research (organizers, performers, methodological and organizational management, sources of research financing).

D) Development Research Plan - Includes definition:

- object of research (statistical aggregate);

- the scope of the study (solid, unpaid);

- species (current, one-time);

- methods for collecting statistical information.

D) need to be Research Program (Observations) - Includes:

- determination of a unit of observation;

- List of questions (accounting signs) subject to registration for each observation unit

- development of an individual accounting (registration) form with a list of issues and signs subject to accounting;

- Development of table layouts in which the results of the study are then entered.

A separate form is filled with each unit of observation, it contains a passport part, clearly formulated, supplied in a specific sequence of the program and the date of filling out the document. As accounting forms, medical institutions are used in the practice of medical and preventive institutions.

Sources of obtaining information can serve as other medical documents (medical history, and individual cards of outpatient patient, child development history, childbirth history), reporting forms of medical and preventive institutions, etc.

To ensure the possibility of a statistical data development of these documents, it makes a drawing of information on specially designed accounting forms, the content of which is determined in each individual case in accordance with the objectives of the study.

Currently, in connection with the machine processing of observation results using computer, the program questions may be formalized , When questions in the accounting document are put in the form of an alternative (yes, no) , Or are offered ready-made answers from which you should choose a specific answer.

E) It is necessary to make a program of a summary of the data obtained, which includes the establishment of the principles of grouping, the allocation of grouping signs , Determining the combinations of these features, drawing up statistical layouts.

Stage 2. Material Collection (statistical observation) - - It is to register individual cases of the studied phenomenon and characterizing their accounting signs into registration forms. Before and during the implementation of this work, instructions (oral or written) observation performers are carried out, providing them with registration forms.

Statistical observation can be:

BUT ) in time:

1) Current - The phenomenon is studied for some separate period of time (week, quarter , Year, etc.) by everyday registration of the phenomenon as each case occurs (taking into account the number of born , Died, sick crude , Discharged from the hospital). Thus are taken into account rapidly changing phenomena.

2) One-time - Statistical data are collected on a certain (critical) point in time (population census, study of the physical development of children, preventive inspections of the population). One-time registration reflects the state of the phenomenon at the time of study, is used to study slowly changing phenomena.

The choice of type of observation in time is determined by the purpose and objectives of the study (the characteristic of hospitalized patients can be obtained as a result of the current registration of retired from the hospital - the current observation or by a one-day census of patients in the hospital - one-time observation).

B) depending on the completeness of the coverage of the phenomenon:

1) Solid - all part of the observation unit included in the aggregate are studied, i.e., the general population. It is carried out in order to establish the absolute sizes of the phenomenon (total population, the total number of born or dead). It also applies in cases where information is necessary for operational work (accounting for infectious morbidity, the load of doctors, etc.)

2) Unbless - Only part of the general aggregate is studied, it is divided into several species:

1. Monographic method - Gives detailed description Separate units of aggregate and deep, comprehensive description of objects.

2. Method of the main massif - involves the study of those objects in which a significant majority of observation units are concentrated. The disadvantage of this method is that the part of the totality remains a non-engaged study, although a small size, but which can differ significantly from the main array.

3. Ankrug method - This is a collection of statistical data using a specially developed questionnaire addressed to a certain circle of persons. This study is based on the principle of voluntaryness, so the questionnaire is often incomplete. Often the answers to the questions are imprinting subjectivity and chance. This method is used to obtain an approximate characteristic of the phenomenon under study.

4. Selective method - The most common method is reduced to the study of some specially selected part of the observation units to characterize the entire general population. The advantage of this method is to obtain a high degree of reliability, as well as a significantly lower cost. The study employs less than performers , In addition, it requires smaller time spending. In medical statistics, the role and place of the sample method is especially great because medical workers It is usually only with part of the studied phenomenon (study a group of patients with one or another disease, analyze the work of individual units).

C) according to the method of obtaining information during the implementation and nature of its implementation

1. Direct observation (Clinical examination of patients , Conducting laboratory , Tool Research , Anthropometric measurements, etc.)

2. Sociological methods: Interview method (full-time survey), questionnaire (permanent survey - anonymous or non-anonymous), etc.;

3. Documentary research (Catching information from accounting and reporting medical documents, information of official statistics of institutions and organizations.)

3 stage. Material Development, Statistical Grouping and Summary- Begins with checking and clarifying the number of observations , Fullness and correct information , Identifying and eliminating errors, duplicate records, etc.

To properly develop material applied Encryption of primary accounting documents, That is, the designation of each character and its group is familiar with alphabet or digital. Encryption is a technical technique. , Facilitating and accelerating material development , Improving quality, development accuracy. CIFRES - CONDITIONAL SUBBOTS - are produced arbitrarily. When encrypted diagnoses, it is recommended to use the International Nomenclature and Classification of Diseases; With the encryption of professions - profession in the dictionary.

The advantage of encryption is that, if necessary, after the end of the main development, you can return to the material for development in order to clarify new links and dependencies. Encrypted accounting material allows you to make it easier and faster , The unencrypted. After checking, a grouping of signs is carried out.

Grouping - Dismemberment of the totality of data under study for homogeneous , Typical groups in the most essential features. The grouping can be carried out according to quality and quantitative features. The choice of a grouping feature depends on the nature of the common aggregate and objectives of the study.

BUT) Typology grouping produced by quality (descriptive, attribute) features (gender , Profession, group diseases)

B) Variational grouping (in quantitative features) is carried out on the basis of the numerical dimensions of the trait (age , Duration of the disease, the duration of treatment, etc.). Quantitative grouping requires a solution to the issue of the magnitude of the grouping interval: the interval may be equal, and in some cases - unequal, even to include the so-called open groups (open groups can be determined when grouping by age: up to 1 year, 50 years and older).

When determining the number of groups, research is based on the purpose and objectives. It is necessary that the groupings can open the patterns of the phenomenon under study. A large number of groups can lead to excessive crushing of material, unnecessary detail. A small number of groups leads to the simplicity of characteristic features.

Having finished grouping material, proceed to Summary - generalization of isolated cases , Received as a result of a statistical study, in certain groups, their calculation and the introduction of tables in layouts.

A summary of statistical material is carried out using statistical tables. Table , Not filled with numbers , Called Mockup.

Statistical tables are lugged , Chronological, territorial.

The table has to be both faithful. Statistical subjects are usually located along the horizontal lines on the left side of the table and reflects the main, the main feature. Statistical faithful placed from left to right along vertical graphs and reflects additional accounting.

Statistical tables are divided into:

BUT) Simple - presented numerical distribution of material on one basis , Components of it. A simple table contains usually a simple list or result over the entire totality of the phenomenon under study.

B) Group - presented a combination of two signs in connection with each other

IN) Combinational - the distribution of material in three and more interconnected features is given.

During tables, certain requirements must be complied with:

- each table must have a title reflecting its content;

- Inside the table, all graphs must also have clear brief names;

- When filling out the table, all table cells must contain the corresponding numeric data. The remaining blanks due to the lack of this combination of the table cells are firing ("-"), and in the absence of information in the cell is affixed with "n. S." or "…";

- After filling the table in the lower horizontal row and in the last right, the vertical column is summed up by the vertical graph and horizontal rows.

- Tables must have a single serial numbering.

In studies with a small volume of observations, the summary is carried out manually. All accounting documents are laid out into groups in accordance with the cipher of the feature. The following is calculated and recorded data into the appropriate table of the table. Currently, the computers and summary of the material are widely used. . Which allow not only to sort the material on the studied signs , But perform calculations of indicators.

4 stage. Statistical analysis of the studied phenomenon, formulation of conclusions - Responsible Stage of the study on which the calculation of statistical indicators is calculated (frequencies , Structures , The average sizes of the studied phenomenon), their graphic image is given. , The speaker is studied , Trends, set links between phenomena . Forecasts are given, etc. Analysis involves the interpretation of the data obtained, an assessment of the reliability of the research results. In conclusion, conclusions are made.

5 stage. Literary processing and registration of results - It is concluding, suggests the final registration of the results of a statistical study. Results can be decorated in the form of an article, report, report , Dissertations and others. For each type of registration exist certain requirements, Which must be respected in the literary processing of the results of a statistical study.

The results of medical and statistical research are being implemented in health care practice. Possible various options Use of research results: familiarization with the results of a wide audience of medical and scientists; preparation of guidance and methodological documents; Registration of rationalization offers and others

Upon completion of statistical research, recommendations and management decisions are developed, the implementation of the research results are being implemented, effectiveness is estimated.

In statistical research, the most important element is observing strict sequence in the implementation of these stages.

2.1 Scheme of statistical research

Systems of statistical data analysis are a modern effective tool of statistical research. The wide opportunities for processing statistical data have special statistical analysis systems, as well as universal means - Excel, Matlab, Mathcad and more ..

But even the most advanced tool cannot replace the researcher, which should formulate the purpose of the study, collect data, select methods, approaches, models and means of processing and data analysis, as well as interpret the results obtained.

Figure 2.1 presents the scheme of a statistical study.

Fig.2.1 - Schematic scheme statistical research

The source point of statistical research is the wording of the problem. When it is determined, the purpose of the study is taken into account, it is determined which information is necessary and how it will be used when deciding.

Statistical research itself begins with the preparatory stage. During the preparatory stage, analysts are studying technical task - The document compiled by the customer of the study. In terms of technical specifications, research objectives should be clearly formulated:

the object of the study is determined;

the assumptions and hypotheses are listed, which during the study must be confirmed or refuted;

described how the results of the study will be used;

dates in which the study should be conducted and the study budget.

Based on the technical task being developed structure of an analytical report - then in any form The results of the study must be presented, as well as program of statistical observation. The program is a list of features subject to registration in the surveillance process (or questions that reliable answers must be obtained for each observation unit). The content of the program is defined as the features of the observed object and the objectives of the study and methods selected by analysts for further processing of the collected information.

The main stage of statistical research includes the collection of the necessary data and their analysis.

The final stage of the study is to prepare an analytical report and the provision of its customer.

In fig. 2.2 presents a diagram of statistical data analysis.

Fig.2.2 - The main stages of statistical analysis

2.2 Collection of statistical information

Collection of materials implies an analysis of the technical task of the study, the definition of sources of the necessary information and (if necessary) the development of a questionnaire. When studying sources of information, all required data is divided into primary(data that is not available and which should be collected directly for this study), and secondary (collected earlier for other purposes).

The collection of secondary data is often referred to as the "Cabinet" or "library" study.

Examples of primary data collection: observations of store visitors, questioning hospital patients, discussion problems at a meeting.

Secondary data is divided into internal and external.

Examples of sources of internal secondary data:

an information system of the organization (including an accounting subsystem, sales management subsystem, CRM (CRM system, reduction from English. Customer Relationship Management) - Application software for organizations intended to automate customer interaction strategies) and others);

previous studies;

written reports of employees.

Examples of sources of external secondary data:

reports of statistical and other government agencies;

reports of marketing agencies, professional associations, etc.;

electronic databases (address reference books, GIS, etc.);

libraries;

media.

The main output data at the data collection phase are:

planned sampling;

sampling structure (presence and size of quotas);

type of statistical observation (collecting data survey, questionnaire, measurement, experiment, examination, etc.);

information on the parameters of the survey (for example, the possibility of falsifying the questionnaire);

scheme of encoding variables in the program database selected for processing;

plan diagram of data conversion;

plan diagram of used statistical procedures.

The same stage includes directly the survey procedure. Of course, the questionnaires are developed only for obtaining primary information.

The data obtained must be appropriately edited and prepared. Each questionnaire or form of observation is checked and, if necessary, is adjusted. Each response is assigned numeric or alphabetic codes - information encoding is made. Data preparation includes editing, decoding and verification of data, encoding them and necessary transformations.

2.3 Definition of Sampling Characteristics

As a rule, the data collected as a result of statistical observation for statistical analysis are a selective set. The sequence of data conversion into the process of statistical research can be schematically represented as follows (Fig. 2.3)

Figure 2.3 Statistical Transformation Scheme

Analyzing the sample, you can draw conclusions about the general population represented by the sample.

Final definition of general sampling parameters Produce when all the questionnaires are collected. It includes:

determining the actual number of respondents

determination of the sampling structure

distribution at the survey location,

establishment of the confidence level of the statistical reliability of the sample,

calculation of the statistical error and determination of the representativeness of the sample.

Real number The respondents can be a large or smaller planned. The first option is better for analysis, but is unprofitable to customer research. The second may adversely affect the quality of the study, and, therefore, it is unprofitable to analysts or customers.

Sampling structure It may be random or non-random (respondents were selected on the basis of a predetermined criterion, for example, the quota method). Random samples of a priori are representative. The non-random samples can intend to be unrequentative relative to the general population, but to give important information for research. In this case, it should also be carefully taken to filter issues of the questionnaires that are intended specifically to screen unsuitable for the requirements of respondents.

For Definition of accuracy estimationFirst of all, it is necessary to set the level of trust probability (95% or 99%). Then the maximum statistical error samples calculated as

or
,

where - sampling volume - the probability of the onset of the investigated event (the respondent's hit to the sample), - the probability of a reverse event (non-payment of the respondent in the sample), - trust probability ratio
- dispersion of a sign.

Table 2.4 shows the most consumed values \u200b\u200bof the trust probability and trust probability coefficients.

Table 2.4.

2.5 Data Processing on Computer

Analysis of data using a computer includes the execution of a number of necessary steps.

1. Determining the structure of the source data.

2. Entering data into the computer in accordance with their structure and requirements of the program. Editing and data conversion.

3. Setting data processing method according to research tasks.

4. Obtaining data processing. Its editing and saving in the desired format.

5. Interpretation of the processing result.

Steps 1 (preparatory) and 5 (final) is not able to perform any computer program - Their researcher does himself. Steps 2-4 are performed by a researcher using the program, but it is the researcher who determines the necessary procedures for editing and converting data, data processing methods, as well as the format for presenting the processing results. Computer help (steps 2-4) lies, ultimately, in the transition from the long sequence of numbers to more compact. At the "Login" of the computer, the researcher submits an array of source data that is not available to understanding, but is suitable for computer processing (step 2). The researcher then gives the program to the data processing command in accordance with the task and the data structure (step 3). At the "output", it receives the result of processing (step 4) - also an array of data, only smaller, accessible to understanding and meaningful interpretation. At the same time, an exhaustive data analysis usually requires multiple processing them using different methods.

2.6 Choosing Data Analysis Strategy

The choice of a strategy for analyzing the collected data is based on the knowledge of theoretical and practical aspects of the subject area under study, the specifics and known characteristics of information, specific properties statistical methods, as well as on the experience and views of the researcher.

It must be remembered that the analysis of the data is not the ultimate goal of the study. His goal is to get information that will help solve a certain problem and accept adequate management decisions. The choice of analysis strategy should begin with the study of the results of the previous steps of the process: determining the problem and developing a research plan. As a "draft" uses a preliminary analysis plan, developed as one of the elements of the research plan. Then, during the receipt at the subsequent stages of the process of studying additional information, it may be necessary to make certain changes.

Statistical methods are divided into single and multidimensional. One-dimensional methods (univariatetechniques) are used when all sample elements are estimated by one indicator, or if there are several of these indicators for each element, but each variable is analyzed at the same time separately from all others.

Multidimensional Methods (Multivariate Techniques) are well suited for data analysis, if two or more indicators are used to evaluate each element of the sample, and these variables are analyzed simultaneously. Such methods are used to determine dependencies between phenomena.

Multidimensional methods differ from one-dimensional primarily by the fact that when they use their use, the focus is shifted from levels (averages) and distributions (dispersions) of phenomena and focuses on the degree of relationship (correlation or covariance) between these phenomena.

One-dimensional methods can be classified based on what data is analyzed: metric or nonmetric (Fig. 3). Metric data (METRIC DATA) is measured by interval or relative scale. Nonmetric Data (Nonmetric Data) is estimated on a nominal or flat scale

In addition, these methods are divided into classes based on how many samples are one, two or more - analyzed during the studies.

The classification of one-dimensional statistical methods is presented in Fig.2.4.

Fig. 2.4 Classification of one-dimensional statistical methods depending on the analyzed data

The number of samples is determined by how work is underway with data for a specific analysis, and not how data was collected. For example, data on male and female people can be obtained within one sample, but if their analysis is aimed at identifying the difference in perception based on the difference in floors, the researcher will have to operate in two different samples. The samples are considered independent if they are experimentally connected with each other. Measurements conducted in one sample do not affect the values \u200b\u200bof the variables in another. For analysis, data relating to different groups of respondents, for example collected from female and male, are usually processed as independent samples.

On the other hand, if the data in two samples relate to the same group of respondents, the samples are considered combined into pairs - dependent.

If there is only one sample of metric data, Z- and T-criteria can be used. If there are two or more independent samples, in the first case, you can use the Z- and T-criterion for two samples, in the second - method of single-factor dispersion analysis. For two connected samples, a pair T-criterion is used. If a we are talking On non-metric data in one sample, the researcher can take advantage of the criteria of the frequency distribution, chi-square, the criterion of Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K ~ S), the criterion of the series and the binomial criterion. For two independent samples with nonethender data, it is possible to resort to the following methods of analysis: chi-square, manna-white, medians, K-C, with single-factor dispersion analysis of Crooked Wallis (yes K-y). Unlike this, if there are two or more interrelated samples, the criteria of signs, Mak-Nemara and Wilcoxon should be used.

Multidimensional statistical methods are aimed at identifying existing patterns: the interdependence of variables, relationships or sequences of events, intersective resemblance.

It is enough to distinguish five standard types of patterns, the study of which is essential: association, sequence, classification, clustering and forecasting

The association takes place if several events are associated with each other. For example, a survey conducted in the supermarket may show that 65% of the Coca-Clause bought corn chips also take, and if there is a discount for such a kit, the Kola is acquired in 85% of cases. Having information about such an association, managers are easy to assess how effective the discount provided.

If there is a chain of events associated in time, then they talk about the sequence. For example, after buying a house in 45% of cases, a new kitchen stove is purchased within a month, and within two weeks, 60% of the newcomers are seized with a refrigerator.

With the help of the classification, features characterizing the group to which one or another object belongs to. This is done by analyzing already classified objects and the formulation of a certain set of rules.

Clustering is different from the classification by the fact that the groups themselves are not specified in advance. Using clustering, various homogeneous data groups are distinguished.

The basis for all sorts of prediction systems is the historical information stored in the form of temporary series. If you manage to build a regularity, adequately reflecting the dynamics of the behavior of targets, there is a chance that you can predict the behavior of the system in the future.

Multidimensional statistical methods can be divided into interconnection analysis methods and classification analysis (Fig. 2.5).

Fig.2.5 - Classification of multidimensional statistical methods

Stages of statistical research.

Stage 1: Statistical observation.

2 stage: Minimizing and grouping of observation results into certain aggregate.

3 stages: Generalization and analysis of the materials obtained. Identify the relationships and scales of phenomena, determining the patterns of their development, the development of forecast estimates. Important is the presence of exhaustive and reliable information about the object being studied.

At the first stage of statistical research, primary statistical data is formed, or source statistical information, which is the foundation of the future statistical "building". In order for the "building" to be durable, good and high-quality should be its basis. If an error or material was assumed to collect primary statistical data, it turned out poorly, it will affect the correctness and accuracy of both theoretical and practical conclusions. Therefore, statistical observation from the initial to the final stage should be carefully thought out and clearly organized.

Statistical observation gives the starting material for generalization, the beginning of which serves summary. If, with statistical observation, each unit receives information characterizing it from many sides, then these reports characterize all the statistical aggregate and individual parts. At this stage, the aggregate is divided by the differences and combines the signs of similarities, the total indicators in groups and in general are calculated. Using the grouping method, the studied phenomena are divided into essential types, characteristic groups and subgroups for essential features. Using groups, limit quality homogeneous aggregate, which is a prerequisite for determining and applying generalizing indicators.

At the final stage of analysis, with the help of generalizing indicators, relative and average values \u200b\u200bare calculated, the evaluation of the characterization of the signs is given, the dynamics of phenomena are characterized, indices, balance constructions are used, indicators characterizing the tightness of the ties in the change in the signs. In order to the most rational and visual presentation of the digital material, it is presented in the form of tables and graphs.

Cognitive value of statistics thing is:

1) statistics gives digital and meaningful lighting of studied phenomena and processes, serves as the most reliable way to assess reality; 2) statistics gives the evidence power of economic conclusions, allows you to check the various "walking" approvals, individual theoretical provisions; 3) Statistics have the ability to disclose the relationship between phenomena, show their shape and strength.

1. Statistical observation

1.1. Basic concepts

Statistical observation - this is the first stage of a statistical study, which is scientifically organized by unified Program Accounting for the facts characterizing the phenomena and processes of public life, and collecting the data obtained on the basis of this accounting.

However, not every collection of information is statistical observation. On statistical observation can only be said when statistical patterns are being studied, i.e. Such, which manifest themselves in a mass process, in a large number of units of some kind of aggregate. Therefore, statistical observation should be systematic, mass and systematic.

Spacery Statistical observation is that it is prepared and carried out on a developed plan, which includes issues of methodology, organization, information collection, quality control collected material, His reliability, issues of final results.

Mass The nature of statistical observation assumes that it covers a large number of cases of manifestation this processsufficient to obtain truthful data characterizing not only individual units, but also the entire totality in general.

Systematism Statistical observation is determined by the fact that it should be carried out or systematically or continuously or regularly.

The following requirements are presented to statistical observation:

1) the completeness of statistical data (the completeness of the coverage of the units of the aggregate, parties of a phenomenon, as well as the completeness of the coverage in time);

2) credibility and accuracy of data;

3) their uniformity and comparability.

Any statistical research must be started with the wording of its goal and tasks. After that, the object and the observation unit are determined, the program is being developed, the view and method of observation are developed.

Object observation - A combination of socio-economic phenomena and processes that are subject to research, or accurate boundaries, within which statistical information will be registered . For example, when the population census, it is necessary to establish which population is subject to registration - cash, i.e., actually in this area at the time of the census, or permanent, i.e. living in this area constantly. When examining the industry, it is necessary to establish which enterprises will be attributed to industrial. In some cases, to limit the observation object, one or another value is used. Cents - Restrictive sign that must satisfy all units of the aggregate. For example, when census manufacturing equipment, it is necessary to determine what is attributed to production equipmentand what to manual toolWhat equipment is subject to census - only acting or also in repair, in stock, backup.

Unit of observation called component The object of observation, which serves as the basis of the account and has signs subject to registration when observed.

For example, when a census of the population is a single observation unit, each individual person is. If there is also a task to determine the number and composition of households, then the unit of observation along with a person will be every household.

Observation program - This is a list of questions for which information is collected or a list of signs and indicators to be registered. . The observation program is drawn up in the form of a form (questionnaires, the form), which includes primary information. The necessary supplement to the forms is the instruction (or instructions on the forms themselves), which clarifies the meaning of the issue. The composition and content of the issues of the observation program depends on the objectives of the study and on the characteristics of the public phenomenon under study.

Statistical research - This is a scientifically organized for the Unified Program, a summary and analysis of data (facts) on socio-economic, demographic and other phenomena and public life processes in the state with the registration of their most significant features in the accounting documentation.

Distinctive features (specific) of statistical research are: focus, organization, mass, systemicity (complexity), comparability, documency, controllability, practicality.

Statistical research consists of three main stages:

1) Collect primary statistical information (Statistical observation) - observation, collecting data on the values \u200b\u200bof the sign of the status of the Stat-Oh owned units, CT is the foundation of the future of stat analysis. If an error or material was made when collecting primary status data, it turned out to be poorly disabilities, it will affect the correctness and reliability of both theoretical and practical conclusions.

2) Statistical summary and processing of primary information - The data is subjected to systematization and grouping. The results of the static grouping and summary are set out in the form of static tables is the most rational, systematic, compact and visual form of representation of mass data.

3) generalization and interpretation of statistical information - An analysis of statistical information is carried out ..

All these stages are interconnected, the absence of one of them leads to the rupture of the integrity of the statistical research.

Stages Static Studies

1. Sowing a goal

2. Determination of the observation object

3. Determination of observation units

4. Drawing up the research program

5. Suitable Instructions for Filling Blanca

6. Summary and grouping data (brief analysis)

Basic concepts and categories of statistical science.

1. Statistical aggregate - these are a lot of phenomena having one or more general signs and different from themselves by other signs. Such, for example, a totality of households, a combination of families, a totality of enterprises, firms, associations, etc.

2. Sign - This property is feature Phenomena subject to statistical study

3. Statistical indicator - This is generalizing the quantitative characteristic of social eco-econ phenomena and processes in their qualitative definiteness in conditions of a particular place and time. Statistical indicators can be divided into two main types: accounting and estimated indicators (dimensions, volumes, levels of studied phenomenon) and analytical indicators (relative and average values, variation indicators, etc.).

4. Unit of owl- This is each separate, subject to static study.

5. Variation - This is the variability of the sign of the sign in individual units of the phenomena.

6. Pattern - Call repeatability and order of change in phenomena.

The main stages of statistical observation.

Stupid - This is a scientifically based collection of data on the social economy phenomenon of public life.

Stages CH:

1. Preparation to statistical observation - involves the use of the method of mass observations, the CT is nothing but the collection of primary static information. (solution of scientific and methodological and organizational and technical issues).

2. Summary and grouping of primary status data - The collected info using the method of static groupings in a certain way is generalized and distributed. Core work, begins with sending census sheets, questionnaires, forms, forms of static reporting and ends with their surveillance after filling in organs conducting observation.

3. Analysis of stat inflation - With the help of the method of generalizing indicators, it is an analysis of the statistics of info.

4. Development of proposals for improving CH - The reasons are analyzed, CT led to incorrect filling of stat blanks and detected proposals for improving observation.

Obtaining information during CT CT requires considerable costs of financial labor as well as time. (public opinion polls)

Grouping statistical data.

Grouping - This is the separation of owl into a group of essential features.

Causes of grouping: The originality of the object of static research.

Using the grouping method, the task is solved: allocations of social economy types and phenomena; study of the structure of the phenomenon and structural shifts occurring in it; Detection of communication and relationships between phenomena.

These tasks are solved With the help of typological, structural and analytical groups.

Typology - Identification of types of social ekone phenomena (GR of industrial enterprises in the form of ownership)

Structural GR - Heating structure and structural shifts. Using such G-ok, it can be studied: the composition of us - I am on the floor, age, place of residence, etc.

Analytical GR - identifying the relationship between signs.

Stages of construction of the SG:

1. Selection of a grouping sign

2. Determination of the required number of groups, on the CT, it is necessary to smash the studied owl

3. Install the boundaries of the grief intervals

4. Installation for each GR-ki indicators or their systems, CT should be characterized by dedicated groups.

Grouping systems.

Grouping system - This is a number of interrelated statistical groups according to the most essential features, comprehensively reflecting the most important parties studied phenomena.

Typology - This is a division of the studied qualitatively heterogeneous owl into classes, social econ types (GR of prom and property forms of ownership)

Structural GR - characterizes the composition of homogeneous owl according to certain features. Using such G-ok, it can be studied: the composition of us - I am on the floor, age, place of residence, etc.

Analytical GR - Used when studying the relationships between the signs, one of the CT factor (has an impact on the change in performance), the other productive (signs that are changed under the influence of factors).

Construction and types of distribution series.

Stat a number of distribution - This is an ordered distribution of owl units on a group by a specific characteristic feature.

Distinguish: Attributes and variational distribution ratings.

Attributive- It is R.R., built according to quality features. R.R. It is customary in the form of tables. They characterize the composition of the Soviet according to the existing features taken over several periods, these data allow you to investigate the change in the structure.

Variational - It is R.R., built by a quantitative basis. Any variational series consists of 2 elements: options and frequencies.

Options Separate values \u200b\u200bof the feature are considered, it takes in the variational series, i.e. The specific value of the variation sign.

Frequency - these are the numbers of individual variants or each group of variational series, i.e. These are numbers showing how often certain options in R.R are found.

Variational series:

1. Discreto - characterizes the distribution of units of owl on a discrete sign (the distribution of families by the number of rooms in separate apartments).

2. Interval - the sign is presented in the form of an interval; It is advisable primarily with the continuous variation of the feature.

More convenient for R.R. analyze with their graphic imageallowing to judge and about the form of distribution. The visual idea of \u200b\u200bthe har-re change of the frequencies of the variational series is given by a polygon and a histogram, there is a row and cumulative.

Statistical tables.

Art - This is a rational and common form of presentation of static data.

The table was the most rational, visual and compact form of the representation of the static material.

AUTO TECHNICATIONS defining the technique of formation of START:

1. T should be compact and contain only those initial data, CT directly reflect the socially studied phenomenon in the ST-KE.

2. The heading of the table and the names of the graph and lines must be clear, brief.

3. Infination is located in columns (graphs) of the table, completed the final string.

5. Graphs and lines are useful to numbered, etc.

According to the logical content of Art, they are "stat proposal", the OSN is the elements of the rally subject to both.

Subject to Catching an object is characterized by numbers. This is MB One or more owls, separately the units of owl.

Predicate Articles are indicators, CT characterize the study object, i.e. subject to table. This is the upper headlines and the condition of the content of the graph from left to right.

9. The effect of absolute value in statistics .

Stat Pot - This is a qualitatively defined variable, quantitatively characterizing the object of the study or its properties.

A.V. - This is a generalizing indicator characterizing dimensions, scale or volumes of a phenomenon in specific conditions of place and time.

Methods of expression: Natural units (T., PC., Number); Labor dimension (slave BP, time consuming); Cost Expression

Methods for getting: Registration of facts, summary and grouping, calculation of the methodology (GDP, ratings, etc.)

Views of AV.: 1.Ivid AV - characterize separate elements General phenomena 2. Total AV - HAR-T indicators for ownership of objects.

Absolute change (/ _ \\) - the difference between 2 AV.