Vitaly Kalugin: “I anticipate the freezing of household deposits. Can foreign currency deposits surprise

One fine morning began with a distinctly conscious sense of an impending event of a major scale. A sharp and one-time change in the rules of the game. In my professional field, of course. Moreover, it is much more serious than the constantly expected collapse of the stock market or further devaluation. This has already become a habitual thing, to which at the very least I have adapted, defended myself to the best of my ability and live with it.

In short, it was as clear as day: we are expecting surprises, extremely unpleasant, and very soon. Those who want to make fun of "Vanga" can stop here and go directly to the comments. I'll warn you right away: this is a premonition for a completely sober head.

For the rest - the result of reasoning.

As an extremely rational person, such intuitive things are extremely uncomfortable for me, so I had to build a tree of options, otherwise you will become paranoid. Raise numbers, try to link them together.

I think that the only financial event that has a global effect within the country can only be something from the banking sector. In politics now, too, a lot of things will happen (it does not matter, in the external or in the internal). Something will affect finances, some will not, but we will leave it out of brackets.

Mass effect here is possible only from events with deposits and (or) money circulation and nothing else. I am ready to listen to other options and discuss them later, but here I am putting out the rationale for exactly the option that I have in the first place in terms of probability for implementation. The rest is a restriction on cash circulation, on cross-border transfers, then in descending order.

So, we list:

The central bank announced that it will roll out a list of 50-60 systemically important credit institutions. It is possible to discuss the idiocy of this step later, but the most obvious consequence is that in a short time the rest of the banks will simply die, carried out by depositors and clients. And the timing is not important here.

There are 854 banks in the country.

According to statistics for the 1st half of 2013, 41% of deposits exceed the insured level of 700 thousand rubles.

The volume of household deposits almost reached 17 trillion rubles last year.

The concentration of deposits in top-30 banks is almost 79%, and in potential top-60 - no less than 85–88%.

Based on the results of cleaning 2013–2014. private depositors lost 51.9 billion rubles not covered by deposit insurance. The business suffered losses in burst banks for 81 billion. The figures have not yet been verified, you can ignore them if you wish, but I personally trust their source.

The size of the DIA fund is approximately 160 billion rubles. You can dig up a specific figure, but even so it is clear that almost all deposits were issued by loans, the rest - at the cash desks of banks or on correspondent accounts with the Central Bank. In other words, physically your deposits in the bank have long been gone. I believe that 45-60% are consumer and corporate loans, 10-15% bonds, 10-15% cash desk and correspondent accounts (instant liquidity), and so on, little things. Bankers can give specific information.

We simulate.

The economy continues to collapse, as does the cleaning of the banking sector. We rolled out a list of the top 60 banks. This means that approximately 17 trillion * (100% - 85%) \u003d 2.5 trillion will end up in “non-system” banks, the number of which is almost 800. Of these “non-system” deposits, about 2.5 trillion * 41% \u003d 1 trillion exceed level of 700,000 rubles. Considering that according to the results of cleaning only a couple of dozen banks in 2013–2014. irreplaceable losses of depositors of more than 50 billion rubles, the massive movement of withdrawal of money will jeopardize hundreds of billions not covered by insurance. The size of the DIA is $ 160 billion.

And I ask you not to forget about the billions of businesses in current accounts with such banks. I suspect that 40-50% of this money is for salaries and 15-20% for taxes. That is, even those who may not have deposits in banks at all will suffer, as well as the budget. Although this is a debatable question, I judge only by a few familiar entrepreneurs who have got on "".

As of today, there is no or I do not know the mechanism of additional capitalization of the DIA with budget money. In principle, it is possible, as we all know, to pass any law within two days. But with the tension in the budget today, no one has a special desire to hang such gigantic additional costs on the treasury.

Therefore, just as it was with the devaluation, there are many interested parties to freeze deposits, ranging from the budget to large banking structures that have long wanted to have irrevocable deposits (which is natural). And almost no one, except the population, of course, who is against. But if, with an almost man-made devaluation, they spat on it, then we can continue. Moreover, according to VTsIOM, the president has an extremely high rating, that is, there is also a political component. A person with such a rating can heartily ask to wait a couple of months, understand, forgive, and everyone will put up with it. And we know that there is nothing more permanent than temporary.

A piece of $ 500 billion worth of citizens' accounts can be turned into a permanent resource. Moreover, according to polls, 55-60% of citizens fully agree with the Soviet economic model and, apparently, this is exactly the bulk of those 75-80% of the population who have no savings at all. So we are mentally ready for any restrictions in politics or economics. The remaining 20-25% of the “beneficiaries” of the monetary reform will swallow and humble themselves. I believe that if the scenario happens, we will not die of hunger, they will be allowed to issue 20-50 thousand times a month. Well, or they will introduce a limit on the payment of cards.

Now, when there is no longer a need to pretend and build a mythical financial center, when there is a lot of pressure from outside, there are practically no restrictions in the domestic financial policy. Up to the physical seizure of precious metals (like Roosevelt in the United States during the Great Depression), cash, especially in foreign currency. Those who remember the monetary reform according to Pavlov and the freezing according to Gaidar will understand. I repeat once again: no restrictions of any repressive nature.

There is only one condition: to maximize the effect of taking measures of this kind and scale, they should be as unexpected as possible. Honestly, I don't see a more convenient moment than now.

Restrictions on the issue of cash is a rather extreme measure in relation to its population. The last 2 times in the history of Russia, this happened from 1941 to 1944 and in 1991. In 1991, according to some estimates, citizens lost $ 600 billion, which, even without taking into account inflation and the 1998 denomination, in current rubles is 46 trillion. or 3 budgets of Russia. The current amount, almost 23 trillion. rubles kept by the population in deposits under the conditions also becomes a tasty morsel. However, the probability of freezing deposits in 2016, although different from zero, is not great. Why?

• At the current rate of spending budgetary funds, money from the Reserve and the National Welfare Fund, for at least another 2 years. At the same time, it is planned to hold some, and the long-term will look for support above the current levels. So the money cushion is still there.
• Don't forget about the autumn elections. It seems that the “freeze”, along with the 2-fold depreciation of the national currency that has already occurred, will not add optimism to the voters, and in this case, the voting may bring surprises. Although, provided that 2/3 of Russians do not have any savings at all, room for maneuver remains here as well.
• In general, it is rather naive to talk about the impossibility of fulfilling ruble obligations within the country. Choosing between an internal default, a “freeze” of deposits and inflation through the inclusion of a “printing press”, the state will most likely choose the latter. That is, the problem of ruble debts is rather arbitrary - there is always a State Sign to solve it. Foreign currency deposits are another matter.

And what about foreign currency deposits?

Dollars and euros, unlike rubles, cannot be printed. The share of foreign currency deposits in the total structure is 30%, in dollar terms - $ 90 billion. That in itself is not a critically large amount - it is comparable. However, even if the influx of foreign currency depositors to banks happens and becomes a problem, you can resort to a scheme for forced conversion of currency into rubles at the current exchange rate of the Central Bank, as is the case with foreign currency deposits in case of revocation of a banking license. And as we have already noted, rubles in emergency situations are not such a big problem for the government.

The reserve also includes the so-called "Cypriot option", when banks' obligations to depositors can be forcibly converted into shares or long-term bonds. The introduction of such a mechanism for large (from 100 million rubles) depositors is being discussed at the Ministry of Finance.

In what case can they still freeze?

Deposits can temporarily freeze or limit the amount to be issued in case of panic among depositors. This usually requires several factors, as in December 2014. Then, after the overnight increase in the key rate by the Central Bank by 6.5%, the rates of the euro and the dollar rose during the day to 23%. Amid panic for some

I am writing this text on Monday evening, March 17, 2014. First sanctions adopted, they are directed against Russian and Ukrainian politicians. But this is just the beginning. Since the Ukrainian crisis will probably last for a long time, maybe other actions by Russia will follow, which the US + EU will not like, and we can expect an escalation of the crisis, as well as the introduction of new sanctions.

Formulation of the problem

In this situation, representatives of the Russian middle class you need to think about how to adjust your finances for the crisis. For citizens of other countries, apparently, these reflections will not be relevant, at least not yet. And there - who knows. It is necessary to tune in not only to sanctions, but also to a crisis, since sanctions by themselves may not be aimed at the middle class, but will provoke a crisis that will hit the middle class. I do not undertake to predict exactly how events will develop, but I believe that at such a moment as now, we must prepare for the worst and hope for the best. So what's the "worst"?

I think that the worst scenario would be the arrest and confiscation of all Russian assets in the US + EU + in countries that are political allies of the US and EU (in Switzerland, for example). This may mean that funds in bank accounts, securities, real estate, other property and assets of ALL Russians, and not just politicians, are confiscated. And not only individuals, but also legal entities (both state-owned and private companies), and even the Russian state. This is my scenario called "apocalypse". I don’t even want to think about how many percent it is possible, and under what scenario, and how we will answer. It's just - the worst scenario in my understanding.

Photo source: Freeimages.com

Sberbank is one of the largest banks not only in Russia, but also in the CIS. It has the largest branch network and offers a complete list of investment and financial services. Since 2012, the main shareholder of the financial institution has been the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which owns 51% of the shares. About 40% of the shares are owned by foreign companies. The financial institution is the dominant link in the country's financial policy and one of the main creditors of the state.

Digital statistics

It is still too early to say whether the deposits of Sberbank's clients can be frozen. The statistics of the financial institution speaks of a very positive direction of affairs. So, by March 1, 2015, the assets of the institution amounted to 21.945.67 million rubles. This indicator brought Sberbank to the first position among other institutions of the banking sector. The capital of the institute, which was calculated in accordance with the standards of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, is equal to 2.224.53 billion. As for the loan portfolio, its size is 14.970.52 billion rubles. The obligations taken to the population of the state are 8,391.53 billion.

What is the management talking about?

Despite the difficult economic situation in the country, those deposits in rubles, which Sberbank froze after 1991, are still planned to be paid in the previously established regime. The three-year plan developed a year ago is not going to be corrected. The draft federal budget included an amount of 50 billion rubles for each year to compensate for deposits in the period from 2014 to 2016. After the approval of the law on the protection of deposits of the population, the state assumed full responsibility for the payments of deposits, which had to be completely frozen during the "Pavlovian" reform in 1991. In accordance with the document, the deposits were to be converted into securities.

Bank debt to depositors

The internal debt of the state, in accordance with the amount of savings, in 2012 amounted to 27.7 trillion rubles. This figure was announced by the Ministry of Finance. In the period from 2005 to 2011, payments were systematically made to citizens of the country of a certain category. In total, Sberbank's frozen deposits decreased by 365.5 million rubles. Since 1996, Russian residents have received 441.6 billion rubles.

Legal basis for payments

How about a bet?

If we look at the question from the side of the rate size as an attempt by the bank to attract as many investors as possible in order to stay afloat, then Sberbank's policy wins against the general background. It was reported that the bank recently cut rates in order to maintain its liquidity. This fact greatly upset the depositors and caused a wave of public outrage. People are also interested in the question of whether Sberbank can freeze deposits. Here it will not be possible to give an unambiguous answer, we can only state the fact that at the moment the financial institution fully fulfills its obligations to customers, albeit with slight hesitations. Against the backdrop of bankrupt brethren, negative reviews about which are widespread, it is a good option.

Bad story

Although Sberbank acts as the most reliable domestic bank, its history does not give many potential depositors peace of mind. The deposits frozen in 1991 excite contemporaries. The question of whether foreign currency deposits will be frozen or not is on everyone's lips. People worry about repeating history. On the other hand, such financial institutions as "Financial Initiative" and "VAB", "Finance and Credit" and "Terrabank" completely abandoned their obligations due to lack of capital. All the manipulations of the government and management personnel do not bring results yet. If we consider the new deposits of Sberbank, we must take into account the fact that the financial institution enjoys strong government support. He never gave up his duties and even today tries to fulfill his duty to the investors of the past.

Some interesting points

If you look at the statistics, then it is Sberbank, the deposits in which are constantly increasing, is the most reliable and unshakable. If there is a default in the country, which is unlikely, the financial institution will be the last to close. As the owner of 51% of the institution's shares, the government is trying with all its might to support it, systematically carrying out additional capitalization, and the frozen deposits of Sberbank of 1991 are paid even today after the preliminary deposit of funds into the country's budget. When planning cooperation with a financial institution, you should pay attention to the following points:

• Interest rate, which is an order of magnitude lower than that of competing structures.
• The deposits of individuals in the amount of 700 thousand rubles or more, invested in Sberbank, make sense, since they are completely covered by the agency's insurance.
• If you plan to deposit a small amount and for a short time, it is better to do this in a small commercial institution. There, the percentage is higher, and the likelihood of bankruptcy in such a short time is almost completely excluded.

What difficulties did the bank face today?

There are no complaints about the payment of deposits to the financial institution. Moreover, the frozen deposits of Sberbank from 1991 are systematically paid. Small problems can arise when withdrawing large amounts of money, and even then not in terms of refusal to pay, but in terms of the need to order money at the cash desk in advance. In December 2015, the bank's clients received information that ruble and foreign currency deposits would be frozen for the holidays. The financial institution did just that - it blocked access to the accounts of its clients from December 31 to January 5. After the agreed time, the functionality was restored. The financial institution was forced to carry out such manipulations due to sharp surges in currencies, and such a combination of circumstances is not a harbinger of problems. Minor glitches were recorded in the online account and in the field of translations. Delays in receiving payments and delays in transfers have been noticed. As for deposits, there are no complaints about the financial structure at the moment, therefore, it is not worth considering seriously the question of whether deposits can be frozen.

Are deposits in domestic banks protected?

All deposits in domestic banks are insured by the Deposit Insurance Agency. In accordance with the law, each owner of a deposit in the event of a bankruptcy of a financial institution can receive compensation in the amount of 700 thousand rubles, if the deposit is equal to the amount or more. There is information that the amount of the insurance payment has been doubled over the last month and now amounts to at least 1,400,000 rubles. There is no point in worrying. Both ruble and foreign currency deposits in Sberbank are well protected by law. Considering the actual economic situation in the country, you should avoid storing your capital in one financial institution, albeit the most reliable one. By dividing the available funds between large market participants, you can perfectly diversify risks. Even if some deposits in banks are frozen, the interest on others will almost completely cover all losses. Sberbank can become a worthy participant in the investment portfolio, but by no means the only place where all free capital is accumulated.

Experts commented on the situation with impending US sanctions. Experts believe that an unpleasant situation awaits the holders of foreign currency deposits.

As you know, new sanctions from the US are divided into two packages. One of them involves a new set of restrictions in relation to the state banks of the Russian Federation. The worst-case scenario in economic terms is a ban on Russian banks to carry out transactions in dollars. This, accordingly, may affect the citizens of the Russian Federation, who keep deposits in the US currency in banks.

In connection with the current situation, the issue of freezing foreign currency deposits in 2018 in Russia has become urgent. Experts differ on this score. Analyst Maxim Osadchiy said that the situation will most of all affect the clients of Promsvyazbank, Sberbank, VEB and VTB.

If the clients of these credit institutions have foreign currency deposits, the specialist sees only two ways for the further development of the situation. The first one is to convert deposits into rubles. However, this is not a very attractive option, given the state policy. The second way is to freeze foreign currency deposits.

The head of VTB said that the bank has developed a program of action even for the most severe scenarios. According to Andrey Kostin, the lending institution has a good supply of dollars at its disposal. The specialist said that VTB will be able to refer clients to other banks if they need American currency. At the same time, Kostin hopes that things will not come to a complete refusal of Russia from the dollar.

What will happen if foreign currency deposits are frozen in Russia in 2018

Osadchy said that five banks against which the United States may impose sanctions hold 50 percent of citizens' foreign currency deposits. In total, this is about $ 40 billion. All credit institutions contain 87.4 billion.

If the holders of dollar deposits want to withdraw the money, they will need 20 thousand suitcases, each of which should contain 2 million dollars. The specialist does not know whether the state has enough money in American currency so that depositors do not lose anything. According to preliminary estimates of experts, there is only $ 20 billion in cash in the country.