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Maxim Grigoriev / TASS

Abbas Gallyamov, political scientist

The regional authorities have shown their complete inadequacy. If Tuleyev had gone to the scene of the tragedy from the very beginning, met with relatives, punished the guilty, then there would have been no complaints against him. He did nothing of this and dropped out of the agenda. All this was interpreted as the fact that the authorities are infinitely far from people and indifferent to their problems. Tuleyev's next mistake was the words that “200 buzoters” came to the square. The reception - to blame people for any difficult situation that they work for the State Department - seems to be universal. But in such a situation, it does not work. This is not politics, these are simple human emotions. If the authorities in such a situation oppose themselves to the people, they will lose.

The Putin majority is anti-systemic, and if Putin does not deal with the faulty bureaucrats, he will turn from a lone politician who is the only one who can bring order to the country's chief official. His voter will not like it at all. It is good that Putin came to Kemerovo. It's bad that he did not punish anyone and did not come to the rally. Now the question of principle is whether he will fire Tuleyev. When you try to sit in a chair at any cost, accusing the parents of dead children of political opposition, it looks endlessly cynical and hits the entire system as a whole. If Putin leaves Tuleyev, the responsibility for his behavior will fall on him.

The authorities were late with the announcement of mourning. Perhaps there was a reluctance to spoil the positive mood after the elections and there was a hope that the tragedy would not be so large-scale and it would be possible to get by with its minimal presence in the information space.

Konstantin Kalachev, Head of the "Political Expert Group"

Tuleyev's resignation should have taken place a long time ago, they talked about it back in the fall of 2017. Today, Tuleev's possible successor, Tsivilev (the former general director of the Kolmar coal company, now the vice-governor of the Kemerovo region - Vedomosti), was tested in battle. He rushed to the embrasure - and missed: he showed himself not from the best side, even standing with a candle on his knees is unlikely to correct the impression that was created during the rally.

Tsivilev made several communicative mistakes when he began to look for enemies and blame the father of the dead children [for wanting to promote himself on the tragedy]. If he coped with the situation today, it would be Tuleyev's successor. Now everything is not as clear as it was yesterday. In general, the reaction of the regional authorities to the current situation was ugly. To say that 200 oppositionists have come out is no gate. I believe that Tuleyev has outlived himself: a man who was once a professional tribune of the people now looks like an elderly satrap who curses his favor with the tsar and cannot repeat his own past exploits - to go out and communicate with people, share grief with them.

It is not entirely clear why the federal authorities paused for so long [with the announcement of nationwide mourning]. Perhaps they were waiting for confirmation of the data on the death toll. The decision looks somewhat protracted, but in the end, Vladimir Putin flew to Kemerovo, met with the initiative group, laid flowers and held a meeting at which he looked more than worthy.

Andrey Kolesnikov, Head of the Russian Domestic Policy and Political Institutions Program, Carnegie Moscow Center

The authorities behaved as usual - they kept silent about the information, so people, out of mistrust, tried to conduct their own investigations, which led to rumors of a larger number of victims. The reaction of the federal authorities was catastrophically slow, the announcement of mourning, and indeed Putin's reaction in general, was very late.

The tragedy showed an absolute inability to talk to people. Tuleyev's behavior is fantastic - he apologizes to Putin. That is, the authorities are accountable to the chief boss, not to the people. The vice-governor's reasoning that everyone is promoting tragedy is a commonplace when the authorities are unable to find a meaningful answer to people's problems and despair. It can be seen that the mandate of trust in Putin is very conditional: we confirm it, but just get rid of us, then we are moving along different trajectories. And these trajectories will never converge. Power has only symbolic meaning and has nothing to do with solving the problems of real people.

Putin does not make decisions under pressure, especially public pressure. Therefore, he will send Tuleyev into retirement, but after some significant time.

Mikhail Vinogradov, President of the Petersburg Politics Foundation

The federal government is seeking to remedy the situation with a delayed reaction. And it seems to be doing everything possible - behaving today as it should have behaved yesterday. The key problem of the federal government is to demonstrate empathy, an attitude to the same wavelength with grief and anger that Russian society experiences, regardless of political views. The appointment of alternative mournful events in Moscow and St. Petersburg shows that this empathy cannot be tuned up.

As for the regional authorities, there is a feeling that Tuleyev and his entourage remain politicians of the 20th century. If the Kemerovo society thawed out from the cementing that was there for 20 years, then the regional government proceeds from the fact that nothing has changed, that there is no crisis of trust and a sense of power by one of the guilty. Social problems that exist in every region, and especially in such an advanced one as the Kemerovo region, did not find a splash - and today it spilled over into a request for truth and distrust of the words of the authorities.

It is not very correct in the reaction of the federal authorities to shift all the arrows to the governor and the mayor. Most likely, the fire department does not obey either one or the other.

But keeping Tuleyev as governor becomes politically impossible. But it is unclear how to formalize his departure - whether to make a concession to public opinion or emphasize that it is impossible to rebel. In addition, it is not clear what the stability in the region was based on for 20 years - personally on Tuleyev or this system can function without him. Because the selection of the governor will depend on this: is it necessary to create a collapsed system of social stability from scratch or it will be possible to reproduce it without any difficulties.

Former Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of Bashkortostan on the arrival of Igor Sechin in the region

The day before, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed an order to sell half of Bashneft's shares to Rosneft. In Ufa, attempts to buy the Bashkir oil industry, information about which has appeared for the last six months, are perceived with some irritation, but they cannot do anything. Today, when the Republic Day is celebrated in Bashkiria, the correspondent of Realnoe Vremya spoke with the famous political scientist Abbas Gallyamov, who once worked as the deputy head of the presidential administration of the Republic of Belarus. The expert spoke about the political background of the deal and what remains of Bashkiria. He also expressed his doubts about significant advances under the current leadership of the republic.

Tatneft: next in line?

First, I congratulate you on the Day of the Republic of Bashkortostan! Abbas Radikovich, Bashneft is eventually sold to Rosneft for 329 billion rubles. Will the republic's package (25 percent) leave behind?

Thanks! The federal package is all gone. Sooner or later, the package of the republic will leave. I see no reason why Rosneft will need minority shareholders. Perhaps it will take some time, it will not happen instantly. Maybe it will take a year or two, some time.

- Will Bashkiria get anything from the sale of the republican package?

Let's hope it gets something, but not a fact.

Why do you think others were removed from the purchase of the enterprise? After all, Tatneft, Lukoil, NNK and others have taken a bite at it? Does Sechin have his own approaches to the country's leadership?

Such decisions are made by the head of state, Putin. Yes, this is a political decision.

“The federal package is all gone. Sooner or later, the package of the republic will leave. I see no reason why Rosneft will need minority shareholders. " Photo bashinform.ru

- Can the fate of Bashneft be repeated by Tatneft, which was also hunted?

Taking into account the weight and authority of the political leadership of Tatarstan, this is more difficult to do. Theoretically, this cannot be ruled out, but it will be much more difficult. That is, Bashneft was once alienated, and the republic lost control over it. Then she wandered back and forth and was not an integral part of the region. In this sense, TATNEFT did not leave the republic anywhere, so the population perceives it as an integral part of the region.

- You told me in an interview that Tatneft does not have enough money to buy Bashneft. It turns out that Rosneft has found such funds? Or will you have to make government loans?

It seems that they managed without loans, with their own funds. But I proceed from the information that was in the public space.

Khamit's promises

Earlier, the head of the region Rustem Khamitov said that Bashneft would not be sold until the end of the year, and gave other promises. How will he get out now after such words?

As he wants, let him get out. As they say, the sheriff's problems do not bother the Indians. Igor Sechin wanted to buy Bashneft, and he bought it. Why did Khamitov, knowing that in terms of his weight he was not close to Sechin, got into this stupid situation with public statements? God alone knows this. So let it get out.

“Why does Khamitov, knowing that he is not close to Sechin in terms of weight, got into this stupid situation with public statements? God alone knows this. So let it get out. " Photo bashinform.ru

AFK Sistema was accused of squeezing all the juice out of the subsidiary after purchasing Bashneft and not investing a penny either in the enterprise itself or in the republic. Can the scenario repeat itself?

- Rosneft, of course, will not engage in charity work. She bought Bashneft in order to do business, and not because she suddenly became inflamed with love for Bashkiria and wanted to invest money in the republic. Another thing is that there will be no accusations, because even Khamitov will have to reckon with this first of all. Therefore, everyone will be silent.

Sechin with Rosneft, buying Bashneft, breaks into the republic. How does Sechin's team generally behave in the regions?

I don’t know, I’ve never come across them.

- Before that, Rosneft was not represented in the republic?

- Rosneft has never worked there.

- Anything in Bashkortostan left of its own, unsold?

The state shareholding in the Bashkir Soda Company remained ... And on trifles already. Well, yes, not enough. Bashkortostan parted with property more actively than Tatarstan.

How did other large companies represented in Bashkiria react to this news of the sale of the oil industry? For example, Gazprom has a strong position in the region ...

- Gazprom and Rosneft are not competitors there. Gazprom does not have oil production or refining there. They mainly transport gas there. I don't think it really matters to them. Yes, they have a refinery - Salavatnefteorgsintez (now Gazprom neftekhim Salavat). As far as I understand, they are provided with raw materials normally, and there shouldn't be any problems.

Rosneft, of course, will not engage in charity work. She bought Bashneft in order to do business, and not because she suddenly became inflamed with love for Bashkiria and wanted to invest money in the republic. " Photo rosneft.ru

"There will be no breakthrough under the current leadership of the republic"

With what does the republic celebrate its birthday? Summarize the political and economic results over the past decade.

The economy is stagnating, like throughout Russia. Here Bashkiria is not particularly different - neither up nor down, such an average situation. The republic, in comparison with the times of Murtaza Rakhimov, has turned into such a middle region. If earlier they spoke of the Russian regions as a crowd, then Bashkortostan and Tatarstan were always singled out. Now there is no such thing. Tatarstan somehow stands apart, Bashkortostan is no longer there. Bashkiria has become politically averaged. I am not assessing whether this is good or bad. She just became "one of".

Previously, there was some social competition between the fraternal republics, between Ufa and Kazan. Can Ufa host a race with its neighbor again?

Not under the current leadership. These should be more ambitious people. The current leadership of the republic and its capital is too cautious, proceeding from the fact that "no matter what happens." These are not people who make breakthroughs. In order to make a breakthrough, you need to make decisions, you need to take risks, name your enemies, and conflict. And these people are too careful. There will be no breakthrough with them. There will be such a drift along with the rest of Russia. If Russia grows, then they will grow. If Russia falls, then they will go there too.

Timur Rakhmatullin

reference

Abbas Radikovich Gallyamov - Russian political scientist, political strategist.

• Was born in Chelyabinsk.
• Graduated from the Bashkir State Pedagogical Institute.
• From 2002 to 2008 - Deputy Plenipotentiary Representative of Bashkortostan under the President of Russia.
• From 2008 to 2010 - assistant in the apparatus of the government of the Russian Federation.
• From 2010 to 2014 - Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Republic of Belarus, Head of the Secretariat.
• Candidate of Political Science. Author of the thesis "Leader and the image of a leader in the modern political process: problems of conceptualization and mediatization."

https: //www.site/2018-02-13/izvestnyy_polittehnolog_abbas_gallyamov_o_vyborah_prezidenta_za_poslednie_10_let

"You can not force teachers to distribute propaganda"

Famous political strategist Abbas Gallyamov - on presidential elections over the past 10 years

Nikolay Sandakov and Abbas Gallyamov Nail Fattakhov / website

Abbas Gallyamov, one of the most famous and authoritative political strategists of the country, spoke today as a witness in the criminal case of the former vice-governor of the region Nikolai Sandakov in the Sovetsky District Court of Chelyabinsk. Answering defense questions, he spoke not so much about the conduct of the 2011-2012 election campaigns in the Chelyabinsk region and Sandakov's participation in them, but about the specifics of the conduct of elections in the country as a whole, including presidential elections, over the past 10 years. More details about this, as well as about how much Nikolai Sandakov could earn as a professional in the field of political technologies during the elections - in the report from the website from the courtroom.

"AP released the reins"

Abbas Gallyamov, as he himself admitted, has been running elections for about 20 years - since the late 90s of the last century. Has a specialized higher education and an academic degree. Now he calls himself a freelance political scientist, previously he worked as deputy head of the presidential administration of Bashkiria. Moreover, like Sandakov, he was responsible for the internal political agenda.

Talking about the peculiarities of elections in Russia, Abbas Gallyamov first of all noted that there are two components of the campaign - media (the formation of a certain ideology through the media) and field (organization of the work of a network of agitators). The witness called himself a specialist exclusively in the first area, but Sandakov is one of the few who understands both areas.

First of all, Gallyamov answered the question of lawyer Sergei Kolosovsky about whether the statement of individual witnesses in the criminal case that in 2012 the presidential campaign was practically not conducted by the local authorities, and the All-Russian Popular Front (ONF) was involved in everything.

“This is absolutely not true. The ONF, like other formal structures, for example the Public Chamber, have never acted as independent operators of politics, the witness explained. - The only exception is the United Russia party. It is especially worth noting that the 2012 election campaign was very different from the same campaign in 2008 and has now begun. The role of the regions was much stronger. At that moment, after the protests on Bolotnaya Square, following the 2011 Duma elections, the Russian presidential administration released the reins, and the role of regional administrations turned out to be higher than the average during the elections. So, in Bashkiria, we completely worked out the entire campaign on our own; only two weeks before the elections, the Kremlin took everything under its control. And all the national headquarters, the ONF, traveled to cities and recounted the message that we came up with at meetings with voters. "

“It's not a secret for anyone that one of the main criteria by which the head of the region evaluates the local leader is the latter's ability to ensure a high and correct (that is, for United Russia, - author's note) turnout in the elections,” Abbas Gallyamov noted. - And the failure of the 2011 Duma elections, which ended in “swamp events” with allegations of violations and fraud, showed that the heads of the localities were engaged in a gross use of administrative resources. That is, it was impossible to form a real propaganda network, and not to drive teachers to distribute propaganda materials. The authorities did not have to persuade anyone, it was easier to force them: they set the task of providing 500 agitators at the polling station, then the head gave the task to his deputy, and the latter called the principals of schools, chief doctors of local hospitals or heads of housing and communal services so that each would “give out” 30-50 people. And in December 2011 we were instructed to convince the heads of the localities to switch to the principle of voluntariness, it became necessary to form a team of technologists ”.

Level - god, income - half a million a month

Speaking about his acquaintance with Nikolai Sandakov, Abbas Gallyamov immediately described him as a person who professionally and purely deals with electoral technologies (recall, in court, some of the witnesses assured that Sandakov had nothing to do with the elections).

“I have known Sandakov since August - September 2011,” said Abbas Gallyamov. - Then I was entrusted with preparing the elections to the State Duma, and the situation in the country as a whole was not easy, protest moods intensified. It was then that Sandakov was recommended to me as one of the most qualified specialists. We discussed with him the ideology of media work, work on organizing the field. We talked during the 2012 campaign, and in 2014, when the election campaign of Boris Dubrovsky, which was supervised by Sandakov, was going on, he invited me to cooperate. "

The witness recalled that in 2014 he was constantly in the Chelyabinsk region and attended the meetings chaired by Nikolai Sandakov. Notes that the meetings discussed mainly domestic political issues that were on the agenda of the media, as well as the elections themselves. Management issues were not discussed.

“I don’t really believe and imagine how a political vice-governor could be engaged in economic activities,” Abbas Gallyamov said. - I know about Senichev (former vice-governor Ivan Senichev), he was considered a very close person to Dubrovsky, claimed to be the curator of the political bloc, he had a conflict with Sandakov, if not open, then hidden for sure. He was also at the meetings, but mostly silent like a shadow ... But he was much more receptive to Dubrovsky than Sandakov ... ".

“What do you think he would do if he found out that Sandakov, allegedly, taking advantage of his position, uses the services of security for free (the episode with Kalugin), saving his money?” - asked Sandakov's lawyer Sergei Kolosovsky.

“I would go to Dubrovsky and tell him everything in order to turn in Sandakov. In general, saving 100 thousand per month is not enough (to substitute, - author's note). Sandakov's income at that time was high, ”Gallyamov said.

"Well, we have just 2 million 'savings coming out'", - noted between the case prosecutor Ekaterina Golubenkova.

“Yes, you know what prizes I handed out! But he could have kept all the money for himself, it was millions of rubles unaccounted for (in the elections - author's note)! ”Nikolai Sandakov interjected.

“But it was not your own money ...” - the state prosecutor added again.

"Is Sandakov a greedy person in general or not, and honest or not?" - asked Sergey Kolosovsky

“Honest, no one complained about greed,” the witness noted.

"What is the main disadvantage of Sandakov?" - continued the lawyer.

"And how much could at that time, in 2011-2012, receive Sandakov as a political consultant?" - said Kolosovsky.

“A specialist of his level, hundreds of 500-600 per month (that is, 500-600 thousand rubles a month) could be easily obtained ... Sandakov received well in the civil service, from 100 to 200 thousand, I was his guest, I saw a beautiful house, he paid for dinner. He is not a poor man, ”said the witness.

“Eh, we all chose the wrong profession,” one of the participants in the process sighed, after which Judge Alexander Zimin announced the meeting closed.

With political scientist, political strategist Abbas Gallyamov

Presenter Daria Kucherenko

— Today the media drew attention to the fact that the son of Rustem Khamitov Kamil Khamitov received the position top manager at the UMPO plant. It is clear that such assumptions immediately began, even open statements that it is clear how the son of the head of the republic got such a position. To what extent, in your opinion, are such thoughts justified?

Abbas Gallyamov

— Of course, this is a mistake on the part of Khamitov, it was not necessary to do this. That is, the son should not ...

D. Kucherenko

- And if he is talented? If he's such a good manager?

A. Gallyamov

- Well, let him show his talents in Moscow, I don’t know, he will go to Nizhny Novgorod. Many regions in country, in principle. If you are really talented, it is not necessary to show your talents in Bashkiria, because this clannishness, nepotism is a really urgent problem for Russia in general and for Bashkiria in particular. It is clear that interpretations will be disadvantageous and are best avoided. Even in this particular case, I do not know, maybe Kamil Khamitov is really talented, since his father is also very smart, most likely, he is really an intelligent young man and deserves this position. But, knowing what the general context of perception will be, I would never recommend Khamitov to do this in my life. If he asked me, I would say: “Don't, Rustem Zakievich, interpretations will be disadvantageous to you, you will be tortured to prove later, so to speak, that you are not a camel”.

If you are really talented, it is not necessary to show your talents in Bashkiria, because this clannishness, nepotism is a really urgent problem for Russia in general and for Bashkiria in particular.

D. Kucherenko

- Generally speaking about the inner circle of the head of the region. You once commented on the situation in the Ivanovo region about the fact that the governor's wife is going to hold some kind of festival ...

A. Gallyamov

- Yes.

D. Kucherenko

- And you said that if the governor's wife begins to actively show herself, then, accordingly, her husband is immediately perceived as a "henpecked". How relevant is this for Bashkiria?

A. Gallyamov

- You know, when I wrote about the Ivanovo region, I used, so to speak, my own bitter experience here, in Bashkiria. Because Khamitov's wife is active here, she ...

D. Kucherenko

- Engaged in charitable activities.

A. Gallyamov

- Yes, it is present in the media space. And with rumors that Khamitov was "henpecked", I came across, while still working for Khamitov, and it worried me, I dealt with this. Since then I understood this very seriously, so now I can afford to give advice, including to the Ivanovo governor, and so on. In general, Russia, especially now, is a very conservative country. And any governor, any politician who has an active wife, should be prepared for the fact that any of his weaknesses will be interpreted as a result of the fact that he is henpecked. People are looking for explanations for his mistakes, weaknesses, and an active wife nearby immediately suggests: "Maybe she controls you there?"

In general, Russia, especially now, is a very conservative country. And any governor, any politician who has an active wife, should be prepared for the fact that any of his weaknesses will be interpreted as a result of the fact that he is henpecked.

D. Kucherenko

- But there are regions where women are governors. Are they not perceived there as people at all?

A. Gallyamov

- No, why…

D. Kucherenko

- You say that our country is conservative, and if a woman rules, it’s bad.

A. Gallyamov

- No, no, wait, I'm not saying that when a country is conservative, it means that a woman cannot rule it. Of course, maybe even in an extremely conservative state, like Catherine, for example. All Russian patriots who are conservatives, they recognize the role of Catherine II, and agree that a woman can be a ruler. But it's one thing when a woman rules herself, and another thing when a man rules, but, in fact, he is weak, and she leads him from behind the scenes.

D. Kucherenko

- That is, if a woman is engaged in something that is not even closely related to politics, it will still be perceived ...

A. Gallyamov

- Yes, the very fact that she is present in the media space! It was exactly the same thing that Gorbachev faced. Before him, there were no wives of the first persons of the state in the media space, and then suddenly she appeared. People watched, at first they liked it. A few years later, when big problems began in the country - the economy is falling, the standard of living is declining, national conflicts - people have a feeling that Gorbachev is weak. Why weak? People themselves began to look around in search of an answer to the question, an explanation of why this is happening. And then someone said that he has an active wife, she rules everything. And people perceived, they say, exactly! Indeed, she is active, indeed, there were no wives on the TV screen before, but now there are. And now it's the same story.
Rakhimov's wife did not appear on the TV screen, but Khamitov did. Objectively speaking, while working for Khamitov, I have never seen confirmation that she really affects him. I think these rumors are greatly exaggerated. I think he is not henpecked. But the fact that most of the people who know about its existence perceive it in this way suggests that this is a political mistake, and someday - now I will reveal a secret - we discussed it with him.
I said that I believe her active media presence is a threat. I told him about Gorbachev, about the fact that any ruler who does not play the role of the strongest - and neither Khamitov nor Gorbachev played the role of the strongest, they are rather the most honest - risks that his weakness will be interpreted in such a way that he “ henpecked ". The strongest, like Putin, even if he has an active wife, no one will say that Putin is henpecked, because he plays the role of the strongest. In the cases of Khamitov and Gorbachev, this is impossible. I told Khamitov about it, he agreed, said he would regulate it. She was engaged in charity work, I did not show her on TV, she was not in the newspapers, and as far as I could, I stopped this problem. Since I left, my successors decided that she should be present on all broadcasts. It is clear that there is no need to quarrel with the wife of the ruler, if you can not.

Objectively speaking, while working for Khamitov, I have never seen confirmation that she really affects him. I think these rumors are greatly exaggerated. I think he is not henpecked.