Analysis of the composition and structure of the unemployed population in the Russian Federation. Indicators of the composition and structure of employed and unemployed Distribution of employed by education

Economically active population - persons of the age established to measure the economic activity of the population, who are considered employed or unemployed during the period under review (survey week). B> Employed in the economy - persons who, during the period under review, performed paid employment, as well as income-generating self-employment, both with and without the involvement of employees. The number of employed includes persons who performed work as helpers in a family enterprise, persons who were temporarily absent from work, as well as persons engaged in household production of goods and services for sale.

Unemployed (in relation to the standards of the International Labor Organization) - persons of the age established to measure the economic activity of the population, who in the period under review simultaneously met the following criteria:

· Did not have a job (profitable occupation);

· Were looking for a job, i.e. applied to the state or commercial employment service, used or placed advertisements in the press, directly addressed the organization's administration or employer, used personal connections, etc., or took steps to organize their own business;

· Were ready to start work during the surveyed week.

· Pupils, students, retirees and people with disabilities are counted as unemployed if they are looking for work and are ready to start working.

Unemployed persons registered with the state employment service are able-bodied citizens who do not have work and earnings (labor income), living in the territory of the Russian Federation, registered at the employment center at their place of residence in order to find a suitable job, looking for a job ready to start it.

The level of economic activity of the population is the ratio of the economically active population of a certain age group to the total population of the corresponding age group, calculated as a percentage.

Employment rate is the ratio of the employed population of a certain age group to the total population of the corresponding age group, calculated as a percentage.

The unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of unemployed in a certain age group to the number of economically active population in the corresponding age group, calculated as a percentage.

The registered unemployment rate is the ratio of the number of unemployed registered with the state employment service to the number of the economically active population, calculated as a percentage.

The number of employed according to the materials of the population survey on employment problems includes persons aged 15-72 who did work during the reporting week (at least 1 hour) or were temporarily absent. Data on the average annual number of people employed in the economy are formed for the main job once a year when compiling a balance of labor resources based on information from organizations, materials from a sample survey of the population on employment problems, data from executive authorities, estimates of the number of employees not identified during a sample survey of the population by employment problems.

Duration of unemployment (duration of job search) - the period of time during which a person, being unemployed, is looking for a job using any means.

A strike means a temporary voluntary refusal of employees to perform their labor duties (in whole or in part) in order to resolve a collective labor dispute. Suspension of work due to shortage of equipment, raw materials, materials, component parts due to a strike in supplier organizations is not considered a strike.

The number of workers participating in strikes does not include workers who were absent from their workplaces for reasons such as illness, annual leave, business trips, etc.

The number of people injured in accidents at work with disability for one working day or more and with a fatal outcome includes persons who are subject to registration on the basis of an act in the form of N - 1.

1.3 System of indicators characterizing unemployment

The main indicators of unemployment are: the general unemployment rate, the registered unemployment rate and the duration of unemployment.

The unemployment rate is defined as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of employed and unemployed (as a percentage) according to the following formula (1):

UB = B / (Z + B) H 100% (1)

where UB is the unemployment rate;

З - the number of employees;

B - the number of unemployed.

The level of registered unemployment, determined by the ratio of the number of unemployed registered with the employment service, to the number of the economically active population:

Urb = Chrb / Zang x 100% (2)

Where Urb is the level of registered unemployment;

Chrb - the number of registered unemployed;

Chean - the number of the economically active population;

This indicator is of an administrative nature. If a person came to the employment service, he was registered, put on record. He comes to the employment service, it is noted, he is paid an allowance. Such people are considered unemployed within the administrative system.

The duration of unemployment is characterized by the time spent without work and is defined as the average length of stay without work of all unemployed or some of their categories or unemployed individual territories, etc. When the duration of the job search period exceeds a calendar year, unemployment is considered dangerous, “stagnant”.

The total duration of employment of citizens (person-days) can be determined using the personal registration cards of those who applied for help in finding a job. The duration of employment is calculated for all citizens employed in the reporting year, based on data on the date of deregistration due to employment and on the day of registration of the person applying for employment. Based on this indicator, it is possible to determine the average duration of employment of citizens for the year using the formula (3):

Similarly, for all unemployed employed in the reporting year, the total duration of employment of the unemployed (person-days) is calculated. At the same time, the duration of the search for work of each is considered from the date of registration of a person as "unemployed" to deregistration due to his employment.

Further, this indicator can be used to calculate the average duration of employment of the unemployed in days (by dividing it by the total number of unemployed employed in the reporting year). For predictive calculations of the number of unemployed, the level of appeal of the population to the employment service is analyzed. The intensity of labor demand can be estimated through the number of requests for employment per 1000 people of the working-age population of working age.

The level of general unemployment, which is defined as the share of the unemployed in the economically active population (EAP) at the beginning (end) of the period or on average for the year:

Often, the unemployment rate is defined as the proportion of the unemployed in the total labor force. The unemployment rate found in this way turns out to be lower in value than that considered earlier (in% to the EAN). There is approximately the following connection between them:

Unemployment rate in labor force = unemployment rate in% to EAN *

* share of EAN in the labor force (6)

The above interconnection of indicators is valid only as a whole. In a number of cases, their violations are possible, if the composition of the unemployed turns out to be a large proportion of persons of incapacitated age (for example, pensioners who are looking for a job and are ready to start it), because the age limits for the categories of labor resources and the economically active population do not coincide. However, in most cases, the above equalities take place.

The sum of the indicators of the levels of employment and unemployment in the labor force gives the share of the economically active population in the labor force. Missing up to 100 percent - economically inactive population, which is not part of the labor force. Since the number of the economically active population, the number of employed and unemployed are additively related, the dynamics of these indicators is characterized as follows:

where Ke is the growth rate of the economically active population;

Кз and Кб are the growth rates of the number of employed and unemployed;

Uz0 and Ub0 are the levels of employment and unemployment in the base period.

The rate of dynamics of the total number of unemployed is determined by the indicators of growth rates. Changes in the unemployment rate, although they can be measured by the growth rates, but more clearly characterize them in the form of absolute increases, expressed in percentage points. The change in points of the unemployment rate can be determined based on the dynamics model of the economically active population:

where OUb is the absolute change in the unemployment rate, expressed in percentage points.

As a rule, the unemployment rate, calculated according to the ILO methodology based on sample surveys, is 3-6 times higher than the level registered with the State Employment Service of the Russian Federation. The differences between these indicators are even more noticeable if we take into account the composition of the unemployed by gender. An assessment of the significance of such a difference can be given using the F-test of Fisher, if we consider the sample materials before distributing them to the general population:

F = Dact / Dost (9)

where Dfact and Dres are factorial and residual variances per degree of freedom.

To determine these variances, you can use the following formulas (10, 11), taking into account the rule for adding variances of an alternative feature:

where k is the number of population groups by sex,

рj - the share of the unemployed who applied to the employment service in the total number of unemployed (separately among men and among women);

p is the average share of the unemployed who applied to the employment service as a whole according to the survey;

nj - the number of unemployed - separately for men and women;

n is the total number of unemployed.

Factorial dispersion characterizes the gender differences in the level of the unemployed applying to the employment service. Residual variance estimates the variation in the share of unemployed who applied to the employment service, regardless of the gender of citizens. So, if F - the actual criterion exceeds the tabular value, then the composition of the unemployed by sex determines significant differences in the level of unemployment officially registered with the employment services.

The current statistics of employment services on employment of the population are used to estimate the total number of unemployed in the periods between population surveys on employment problems. To calculate the number of unemployed in the months between the two surveys, interpolation of the ratio of the number of unemployed, obtained according to the survey data, and the number of unemployed population recorded in the employment service at the corresponding date is used. The methodology for such calculations can be different depending on the adopted interpolation concept.

First, it is determined how the ratio of the total number of unemployed, obtained according to the survey data, and the number of the unemployed population registered with the employment service, has changed over the period between the last two surveys.

Cn = xn / yn; C0 = x0 / y0; ? = Сn-C0; ? =? / t,

where xn and x0 are the total number of unemployed according to the data of the last two surveys;

yn and y0 are the number of unemployed population registered with the employment service;

Cn and C0 - the ratio of the total number of unemployed;

Changes in these relationships between the last two surveys;

Changes in the ratios between the two surveys on average per month;

t is the number of months between two adjacent surveys.

If we assume that this ratio increases by the same amount every month, then the total number of unemployed at the end of the month under consideration will be determined as:

where t is the ordinal number of the month after the date of the previous survey;

Yt is the number of unemployed population not registered with the employment service at the end of the considered month t.

Another method of interpolating the number of unemployed between two survey dates is also possible, assuming that the monthly ratio of the two sources of information on the number of unemployed changes not arithmetically, but exponentially (by the same number of times). For this purpose, we determine the overall growth rate of this ratio:

those. the growth rate of the ratio of data for the period between two adjacent surveys.

The average monthly growth rate of this ratio is found as:

Then, assuming that this ratio changes monthly by the same number of times - k, the number of unemployed in the month t can be estimated by the formula (15):

In theory, both interpolation options are equal, although in practice the first method is preferred as the simpler one.

Statistics study the composition of the population looking for a job and applying to the employment service by gender, age and education. As a result of the activity of the employment service, the number of citizens employed by its bodies in the total number of applicants is determined. The largest share among the employed is made up of citizens who are not employed as the most in need of support.

For all unemployed employed in the reporting year, the total duration of employment of the unemployed (person-days) is calculated. At the same time, the duration of each job search is considered from the date of registration of a person as unemployed until deregistration due to his employment. Further, this indicator can be used to calculate the average duration of employment of the unemployed in days (by dividing it by the total number of unemployed employed in the reporting year).

For predictive calculations of the number of unemployed, the level of appeal of the population to the employment service is analyzed. The intensity of labor demand can be estimated through the number of requests for employment per 1000 people of the working-age population of working age, i.e.

The effectiveness of the work of the employment services for the employment of the population largely depends on the reliability and timeliness of information from enterprises about the need for labor, about job vacancies. At present, the load of the unemployed population per one vacancy is determined by regions of Russia. This indicator captures the scale of tension in the labor market.

By means of statistics, when analyzing the data of a sample survey on employment problems and from the employment services according to the appendix to form No. 1-T "Report on employment and employment of the population", the social composition of the unemployed is obtained. The report contains information on the qualitative composition of the unemployed (their distribution by gender, age, education level, reasons for dismissal, presence of children, profession, specialty). The study of the qualitative composition of the unemployed contributes to the development of a more effective employment policy (subsidies for the expansion of jobs, the system of training and retraining of the labor force, the encouragement of entrepreneurial activity, etc.)

The educational composition of the unemployed can be compared with a similar composition of the employed. From the standpoint of the vocational guidance of the unemployed, it is necessary to study their age composition.

To predict employment and unemployment, information about the duration of unemployment is needed. Based on the distribution of the unemployed, it is possible to approximately determine the average duration of unemployment as an arithmetic weighted average:

where Ti is the time of absence of work in the i-th group;

Ni is the number of unemployed in the i-th group.

The median of the duration of unemployment is determined by the formula (17):

Me = x0 + i * (NMe-SMe-1) / fMe (17)

where x0 is the lower bound of the median interval, i.e. the first interval with an accumulated frequency of 50% or more;

i is the value of the median interval;

NMe is the ordinal number of the median;

SMe-1 is the cumulative frequency of the premedian interval;

fMe is the local frequency of the median interval.

This indicator characterizes the fact that about half of the unemployed are looking for work more than the median found.

Job search time is closely related to the age of the unemployed and varies significantly by gender. Coefficients of correlation and determination are calculated. The significance of these differences is confirmed by the value of F-Fisher's criterion, which should be higher than the table value. The calculation of the F-criterion is carried out according to the formula (18):

F = r2 / (1-r2) * (n-2) (18)

where n is the number of age groups.

In order to correctly assess the situation on the labor market, it is necessary to analyze the reasons that led citizens to the status of unemployed (in connection with the release due to staff reductions, liquidation of an organization, their own business, with dismissal of their own free will). Various reasons for the reduction of jobs determine the appropriate system of measures for social protection of the unemployed. At the same time, unequal real opportunities for assistance in finding a job, with significant differences in situations on the labor market, lead to a strong differentiation of regions in terms of the level of officially registered unemployment.

The effectiveness of the work of employment services for the employment of the population largely depends on the reliability and timeliness of information from enterprises about the need for labor, about job vacancies. At present, the load of the unemployed population per one vacancy is determined by regions of Russia. This indicator captures the scale of tension in the labor market.

where T i is the time of absence of work in the i-th group;

N i - the number of unemployed in the i-th group.

The median of the duration of unemployment is determined by the formula:

Me = x 0 + i * (N Me -S Me-1) / f Me

where x 0 is the lower bound of the median interval, i.e. the first interval with an accumulated frequency of 50% or more;

i is the value of the median interval;

N Me is the ordinal number of the median;

S Me -1 - accumulated frequency of the premedian interval;

f Me - local frequency of the median interval.

This indicator characterizes the fact that about half of the unemployed are looking for work more than the median found.

Job search time is closely related to the age of the unemployed and varies significantly by gender. Coefficients of correlation and determination are calculated. The significance of these differences is confirmed by the value of F-Fisher's criterion, which should be higher than the table value. Calculation of the F-criterion is carried out according to the formula:

F = r 2 / (1-r 2) * (n-2),

where n is the number of age groups.

In order to correctly assess the situation on the labor market, it is necessary to analyze the reasons that led citizens to the status of unemployed (in connection with the release due to staff reductions, liquidation of an organization, own business, with voluntary dismissal). Various reasons for the reduction of jobs determine the appropriate system of measures for social protection of the unemployed. At the same time, unequal real opportunities for employment assistance with significant differences in situations in the labor market lead to a strong differentiation of regions in terms of the level of officially registered unemployment.

2. ANALYSIS OF THE COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE OF THE UNEMPLOYED POPULATION IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Unemployment has become a common phenomenon for some categories of the population. In 2009, in the economically active population, 67.7 million people were classified as employed in economic activities and 7.1 million people - unemployed - these are persons who do not have a job or profitable occupation, who are looking for a job and are ready to start it, and in accordance with with the criteria of the International Labor Organization (ILO) are classified as unemployed. In February 2009. the number of economically active population was lower than in November 2008 by 1.1 million people, or 1.5%. This decline is entirely determined by the decline in the employed population. The number of unemployed, in accordance with the ILO methodology, in February 2009 was 1.8 million people, or a third higher than in November 2008. and February 2008. The unemployment rate, calculated as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of economically active population, in February 2009 amounted to 9.5% and was 2.5-2.4 percentage points higher than in November 2008. and February 2008 (Table 2.1.)

Table 2.1.- The number of economically active population

	average	By quarterly surveys (not seasonally adjusted)			February 2009 increase, decrease (-) compared to
	average	February 2008	November 2008	February 2009	February 2008	November 2008

Thousand people
Economically active population aged 15-72 (labor force)

unemployed
In percents
The level of economic activity

Continuation of table 2.1.

Number of unemployed and unemployment rate in February 2009 were, on average, one third lower than in February 1999, when their maximum value was noted.

Since 1995, the annual share of the unemployed in the active population's economy has been in the range of 5-13%. Let's start with an analysis of their age composition, according to the data in Table 2.2. and Figure 2.1., which clearly demonstrates to us the structure of the distribution of the unemployed by age group.

Table 2.2.- Distribution of unemployed by age group

Total thousand people	Including by age groups, in% of the total number
	youth	Including	Pre-retirement	Pension
	youth		Pre-retirement	Pension

Figure 2.1.- The structure of the unemployed by age group

Attention is drawn to the fact that, over the past years, the leading age group among the unemployed, according to annual surveys, has been youth. She occupied 37-49% of the total number of unemployed, while the 30-39-year-olds accounted for 19-28%, and 40-49 (54) - 15-28% in the summer. Although compared to 1998. Among these three groups, the number of unemployed youth decreased the most by (1.8 million people) in 2008, it amounted to 1.7 million people and was, respectively, 1.9 and 1.5 times more than in groups of 30 39 and 40-40 (54) - year olds.

- this is the part of the population that offers its labor for the production of goods and services.

The economically active population (also called labor force) includes two categories - employed and unemployed.

Employed persons include persons of both sexes aged 16 and over, as well as persons of younger ages, who in the period under review:

performed work for hire for remuneration, money or paid with them in kind, as well as other work that generates income;
were temporarily absent from work due to: illness or injury; days off; annual leave; various kinds of vacations with or without pay, time off; vacations initiated by the administration; strikes and other reasons;
performed work without pay in a family business.

When assigning or not assigning a person to the number of employed, the criterion of one hour is used. In Russia, in the survey of employment, the number of employed includes persons who worked one hour or more in the surveyed week. The use of this criterion is due to the fact that it is necessary to cover all types of employment that may exist in the country - from permanent to short-term, casual and other types of irregular employment.

The unemployed are persons aged 16 and over who, during the period under review:

did not have a job (or an occupation that generates income);
looking for a job;
were ready to get to work.

This definition is consistent with the methodology of the International Labor Organization (ILO). When assigning a person to the category of unemployed, all three criteria specified above must be taken into account.

Is a population that is not part of the labor force. This includes: pupils and students; pensioners; persons receiving disability pensions; persons engaged in housekeeping; persons who have stopped looking for work, having exhausted all the possibilities of obtaining it, but who can and are ready to work; other persons who do not need to work regardless of the source of income.

The categories of economic activity of the population considered above do not imply that once having got into any group, a person remains there forever. has a highly dynamic nature, therefore, one should consider not only the size of each group for a certain period of time, but also the movement (flows) of people between different groups. The diagram below illustrates a dynamic labor market model.

Labor market flows

In the diagram, the arrows represent the directions of movement of people from one category to another. The arrows going from the category of "employed" show a decrease in this group due to the fact that for some reason people leave their previous job, but cannot instantly find another (arrow to the category "unemployed") or stop working altogether, leaving to retire, or for other reasons (arrow to the category "economically inactive population"). Employment increases if a part of the voluntarily unemployed population gets a job (arrow from the category "economically inactive population"), or if a part of the unemployed find a job (arrow from the category "unemployed"). Part of the unemployed population may despair of finding a job and drop out of the labor force (arrow from "unemployed" to "economically inactive population"), or vice versa, part of the voluntarily unemployed decide to work and start searching (arrow from "economically inactive population" to "unemployed" ).

In the short run, when the supply of capital is fixed, the volume of national production directly depends on the amount of labor used. Obviously, the more people are employed in production, the more volume can be produced. The diagram shows that not the entire population of the country participates in the creation of the national product, but only a certain part of it. The question arises as to what is the largest number of workers that can be employed in the country's economy to maximize the volume of national production. This indicator is called full-time.

Full-time Is a long-term situation in which the labor market is in equilibrium. This means that all people who want to work are engaged in the production process and it is impossible to increase the number of workers using non-violent methods. Thus, we can talk about the maximum volume of production, since all the economic resources available at the moment are used at full capacity.

In full employment was understood as such a state of the economy when all labor resources were involved in social production. In world economic theory and practice, full employment is considered to be achieved when everyone who wants to work has a job at the current level of wages. Full employment corresponds to a certain level of "natural unemployment" - no more than 3.5-6.5% of the total labor force.

Employed

Those employed in the economy include persons who, in the reporting period, performed work for hire for remuneration, as well as self-employment income-generating work, work in a family enterprise without pay, employed in the household in the production of goods and services for sale, for whom this work is basic. This also includes persons who were temporarily absent from work for various reasons (annual leave, study leave, illness, weekends and holidays, vacations without pay or with partial pay at the initiative of the administration, etc.).

Employment rate

The employment ratio shows the ratio of the number of people employed in the economy to the number of the economically active population.

Employed persons include:

employees of working age
self-employed persons
family workers (including work without pay)
employers
members of cooperatives
collective farmers and people employed in the household
employees of retirement age
employed persons under working age

Unemployed

The unemployed include persons of the age of the economically active population who, during the period under review, simultaneously met three criteria:

did not have a job (other profitable occupation);
were looking for work in any form;
were ready to get to work.

Pensioners, students, students and the disabled are considered unemployed if they were looking for work and were ready to start work. The concept of an unemployed person corresponds to the standards of the International Labor Organization (ILO).

Statistics determine the number of unemployed by sex, age, marital status, in urban and rural areas, by education level, by the presence of work experience (have work experience or not), due to job loss (liquidation of an enterprise, expiration of a temporary or seasonal work, of their own free will, for other reasons).

In the total number of unemployed, the number of unemployed registered with the state employment service according to the data of the Ministry of Labor and Social Development of the Russian Federation is separately taken into account. At the end of November 2000, out of the total number of unemployed, only 1037 thousand people. (accounting for 14.8%) was registered with the employment service. Bodies of the state employment service keep statistics of applicants on the issue of employment and the number of employed. Statistics on the number and composition of the unemployed are necessary for the development of social programs to increase the employment of the economically active population, improve and stabilize the situation in the Russian labor market.

The information base for calculating the indicators of employment and unemployment is the current (monthly, quarterly, annual) statistical reporting on the labor of organizations, data from reports of small enterprises, materials of sample surveys of the population on employment problems, reports of employment services on the number and composition of unemployed and other information.

Unemployment rate

The ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of economically active population.

The sum of the employment rate and the unemployment rate is equal to one.

Indicators of the composition of employed persons in the economy

Russian statistics have extensive experience in studying the composition of the employed. Statistical annual compilations provide information on the distribution of employed persons according to various criteria.

Accounting for employed persons by sex

As of the end of November 2000, of the number of employed in the Russian economy 64686 thousand people. men accounted for 33375 thousand people, or 51.6%. These indicators differ significantly across regions and sectors of the economy.

Distribution of employed persons by age

The average age of employed persons at the end of November 2000 was 40.6 years, among them the average age of men was 39.2; women - 41.8 years. Almost half of all employed people (48.9%) are between 20 and 39 years old inclusive; 30.4% are between 40 and 49 years old inclusive; over the age of 50 - 19.1% (out of 64,686 thousand employed persons).

Distribution of employed by education

higher professional - 21.7%; incomplete higher professional - 4.5; secondary vocational - 28.7; initial vocational - 11.0; average (complete) general - 23.5; secondary general and primary - 10.7%.

Statistical bodies systematically study distribution of the employed by sectors of the economy: for each sector of the economy, the number of employees and the share in the total number of employees are determined. Of the total average annual number of employed persons in 2000 (64,600 thousand people), the following were employed: in - 22.7%; in agriculture - 13.0; in construction - 7.9; in wholesale and retail trade and public catering - 14.6%. Over the years of the market economy, there have been significant changes in the distribution of employees by industry in the Russian labor market. The share of those employed in industry decreased (29.6% in 1992), as well as those employed in construction (11.0% in 1992). The share of employed persons in trade and public catering increased (7.9% in 1992), in management (from 1.9 to 4.5%).

Statistics study distribution of employed persons by type of ownership... During the period from 1992 to 2000, a significant redistribution of employed persons by forms of ownership took place in Russia. The share of people employed in state and municipal property organizations decreased from 68.9% to 38.1%, while the share of those employed in private enterprises increased from 19.5% to 45.0%, mixed Russian ownership increased from 10.5 to 14 , 1%, property of public and religious organizations did not change and remained at the level of 0.8%, foreign, joint Russian and foreign increased from 0.3 to 2.0%, but it is a very insignificant share.

Lesson groups

Depending on the type of work or occupation of the employee, his qualifications and in accordance with the All-Russian Classifier of Occupations (OKZ) employed persons are divided into the following main groups of occupations:

heads (representatives) of authorities and administration, including heads of organizations, institutions and enterprises;
top-level specialists in the field of various sciences (natural, engineering, biological, agricultural, etc.);
mid-level specialists in various types of activities (in the field of education, health care, in the field of financial, economic, administrative and social activities, etc.);
employees engaged in the preparation of information, paperwork and accounting;
service employees;
workers of housing and communal services;
skilled workers in agricultural production, forestry, hunting, fish farming and fishing, producing products for personal consumption;
workers in the metal-cutting and machine-building industries;
professions of transport and communication workers;
unskilled workers employed in industry, construction, transport, communications, geology and exploration.

The given incomplete list of groups and subgroups of classes gives an idea of the importance of such a study of employed persons. The All-Russian Classifier of Occupations was developed on the basis of the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO), which makes it possible to use information on the distribution by occupation for international comparisons on the employment of the economically active population.

By employment status

According to the status of employment, the entire employed population is divided into two groups: employed and self-employed.

Employed(employees) are persons whose activities are carried out under the direct control of the employer (or persons authorized by the employer). On working conditions and remuneration, they conclude an employment agreement (contract) with the head of an organization of any form of ownership or an individual.

Self-employed Are persons employed in their own enterprises. They are responsible for the state of affairs in the enterprise. Their remuneration depends on the financial performance.

Among the self-employed are the following groups:

employers (they hire employees independently or with business partners, it can be a legal entity or an entrepreneur without forming a legal entity, but using the labor of hired workers);
self-employed (work independently without hiring employees on a permanent basis);
members of production cooperatives (each member of the cooperative participates on an equal footing in solving production and management issues);
unpaid family workers (the activities of these persons are headed by a relative living in this household, the degree of their participation in entrepreneurial activities varies in time, participation in solving various issues).

Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation

FGOU VPO "Orenburg State Agrarian University"

Department of Statistics and Economic Analysis

COURSE WORK

on the topic: " STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION "

Completed: student 34 gr. specialties

"Economics and Management

at the enterprise (by industry) "

A.P. Atamanova

Checked by: candidate of economic sciences, associate professor Khabarova S.V.

INTRODUCTION

Currently, unemployment is becoming an integral element of life in Russia, which has a significant impact not only on the socio-economic, but also on the political situation in the country, which is the relevance of the research topic.

Unemployment is becoming an integral attribute of the market economy system, seriously affecting the performance of economic activities of market economy entities, and the economic and social life of the whole society. Unemployment is a macroeconomic problem with the most direct and powerful impact on everyone. Therefore, unemployment cannot be viewed only as an economic phenomenon. It is necessary to take into account its social aspects. Losing a job for most people means a lower standard of living and causes serious psychological trauma. Therefore, it is not surprising that the problem of unemployment is often the subject of political debate.

The most threatening factor in the growth of unemployment and the massive release of people from production was the destruction of ties between industries and the curtailment of production for this reason at large and super-large enterprises. The rupture of horizontal economic ties, violation of contractual obligations for the supply of products led to a decrease in production volumes, a reduction in the number of jobs and workers.

The economically active population could not meet the requirements of the new economy, which needed active workers capable of independently learning, actively acting without fear of taking responsibility. The negative attitude towards small business that existed at that time hindered the creation of new jobs, thereby contributing to unemployment.

In the last decade, the labor market has been changing dynamically. High technologies are being introduced into an increasing number of spheres of life. Therefore, the importance of highly skilled labor is growing. The end of the 20th century was marked by a boom in higher education, which resulted in a significant increase in the number of school graduates continuing their studies at the university. At the same time, the socio-economic transformation of Russia remained in the recent past, the signs of which were the crisis situation on the labor market and the brain drain.

The purpose of this course work is to study unemployment as an economic category, its theoretical aspects and manifestations in the practice of economic activity. In accordance with this goal, the following tasks are defined in the work:

Define the concept and essence of unemployment, the reasons for its occurrence, as well as the economic and social consequences;

Consider the classification of types of unemployment, identify their specifics;

Conduct a statistical analysis of the structure and dynamics of unemployment in the Russian Federation;

Determine the ways and methods of preventing unemployment, consider measures of anti-crisis policy in the field of employment.

The subject of the research is the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the unemployed, as well as changes in the economic activity of society that accompany unemployment.

The object of the research is the unemployed of the Russian Federation.

Problems in the labor market were considered in the works of many authors: A.D. Popova, S.V. Kurysheva, F.T. Prokopova, A.E. Lapin, V.V. Skobeeva, I.I. Egorova V.D. Areshchenko and others. Scientists have studied in detail unemployment, its structure and dynamics. This work is devoted to the analysis of unemployment based on existing research.

1. THEORETICAL BASIS OF STUDYING UNEMPLOYMENT

Unemployment is a social evil for all countries of the world. However, if in countries with developed market economies, in the presence of a more or less significant level of unemployment, the economy and population exist for decades, then the Russian labor market and the corresponding unemployment have no analogues in the world due to the relatively low material security of our population and the unemployed in especially, higher social tension in society, which can cause significant social upheaval in Russia.

Unemployment- This is a socio-economic phenomenon in which part of the labor force (economically active population) is not employed in the production of goods and services. The unemployed, along with the employed, form the country's labor force. In real economic life, unemployment appears as an excess of labor supply over demand for it.

The entire population of the country of working age, capable of working (i.e., excluding the disabled, the mentally ill and prisoners), is divided into 2 categories:

· Economically active;

· Economically inactive.

The economically active population, or labor force, consists of employed and unemployed:

where LF is the economically active population or labor force;

E - employed;

U - unemployed.

The unemployed are persons of working age who, during the period under review:

Did not have a job (profitable occupation);

They were looking for work - they applied to the state or commercial employment services, used or placed advertisements in the press, directly addressed the administration of the enterprise or the employer, used personal connections, etc. or have taken steps to start their own business;

We were ready to get to work.

The unemployed also include persons who, during the period under review:

Did not have a job, but agreed on a start date (within two weeks after the period under review) and did not continue to search for it;

They did not have a job, were ready to start, but did not look for a job, as they expected a response from the administration or the employer to the request made earlier. In this case, the waiting period for a response should not exceed one month.

Pupils, students, retirees and people with disabilities are counted as unemployed if they were looking for work and were ready to start working.

It is necessary to distinguish unemployment as an economic category from its accounting and statistical measurement. The essence of unemployment as an economic category lies in the fact that a part of the economically active population of the country cannot use their labor force (ability to work), becomes an "excess population", deprived of the opportunity to work for different lengths of time, receive labor income and are in danger of losing their qualifications , profession, social status, decline in living standards. The accounting and statistical measurement of unemployment carries an element of convention, depending on the criteria for classifying certain persons as unemployed and the base with which their number is compared (able-bodied population, employed population, economically active population, etc.). Currently, the indicator characterizing the unemployment rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of economically active population, i.e., to the total number of employed and unemployed, including unemployed persons.

Russia has come into close contact with unemployment since 1992, when after the adoption in 1991 of the RF Law on Employment of the Population, employment services began to officially assign the status of unemployed to people looking for work.

“Unemployment violates one of the fundamental human rights - the right to work,” says the Declaration of Human Rights. The Law of the Russian Federation "On Employment of the Population" (Article 5, Chapter 1) says: "The state ensures the implementation of a policy of promoting the realization of citizens' rights to full, productive and freely chosen employment."

In Russia, obtaining the status of an unemployed person is more stringent than in international documents. In Art. 3 chapter 1 states that the status of unemployed is assigned to able-bodied citizens who do not have work and earnings, are registered with the employment service in order to find a suitable job and are ready to start it.

According to the ILO Convention No. 168 of 1988 "On the promotion of employment and protection against unemployment", total unemployment is understood "as the loss of earnings due to the inability to get a suitable job for a person who is able to work, is ready to work and is actually looking for a job."

Thus, if the state of unemployment in Russia is based on five criteria, then in the ILO Convention - only on three, related mainly to human activities for a specific period of time and not dependent on the legal norms stipulated by the registration of an unemployed person with the employment service and the payment of unemployment benefits , as is practiced in Russia.

The social composition of the unemployed by means of statistics is obtained by analyzing data from a sample survey on employment problems and from the employment service Appendix to Form No. 1-T (Employment) "Report on Employment and Employment of the Population" for the year. The Report contains information on the qualitative composition of the unemployed (their distribution by sex, age, education level, reasons for dismissal, presence of children, profession, specialty). The study of the qualitative composition of the unemployed contributes to the development of a more effective employment policy (subsidies for the expansion of jobs, the system of training and retraining of the labor force, the encouragement of entrepreneurial activity, etc.).

To correctly assess the situation on the labor market, it is necessary to analyze the reasons that led citizens to the status of unemployed. In Russia, the severity of the problem of unemployment largely depends on changes in the structure of the economy and the conversion of the military-industrial complex.

Among the unemployed registered with the employment service, women predominate, while in the total number of childless people, calculated according to the ILO methodology, men.

The severity of the employment problem largely depends on structural changes in the economy.

The release of workers is often associated with technical progress, and with a decrease in production volumes, and with its reorganization, and with the conversion of the military-industrial complex.

Various reasons for the reduction of jobs determine the appropriate system of measures for social protection of the unemployed. At the same time, unequal real opportunities for assistance in finding a job, with significant differences in situations on the labor market, lead to a strong differentiation of regions in terms of the level of officially registered unemployment.

The range of the unemployment rate by region is quite wide: the coefficient of variation was 40.6%. The most acute problem of unemployment is in Ingushetia (51.1% of the unemployed), Kalmykia (30.8% of the unemployed), Dagestan (30% of the unemployed).

The educational level of the unemployed in Russia is one of the highest in the world. Unemployed women tend to have a higher level of education than men.

From the standpoint of the vocational guidance of the unemployed, it is necessary to study their age composition. Most of the unemployed in Russia are people of mature age.

The average age of the unemployed was 33.9 years. Youth unemployment is of particular social importance.

Age can also be taken into account when developing specific measures to help the unemployed. For example, in France, after the expiry of the period for the payment of unemployment benefits (65 months), unemployment assistance is allocated, the amount of which depends on the age of the unemployed: from 65 to 130 francs. for one person per day.

In statistics, a great deal of experience has been accumulated in studying the composition of the employed. First of all, the sectoral composition of the employed is considered, both in the country as a whole and in its individual regions. In recent years, there has been a decrease in the number of employed both in general and in individual branches of material production. In the non-production sphere, there is an increase in employment in lending, insurance and in the management apparatus.

The largest part of the employed (first place) is employed in the manufacturing industry. The second place in terms of economic activity is occupied by trade, repair of cars, household appliances and personal items; the third is agriculture, hunting, forestry; the fourth is education; fifth - transport, storage and communications.

When studying the composition of the employed, statistics are guided by the International Classification of Status in Employment (ICSA).

Employment status is determined for the economically active population, that is, for both the employed and the unemployed. For the unemployed who previously had a job, the status is determined by their previous employment.

In accordance with the ICSZ Goskomstat of Russia, the classification by status in employment includes the following categories:

a) employees;

b) persons working on an individual basis;

c) employers;

d) unpaid family workers;

e) members of collective enterprises;

f) persons who cannot be classified by status.

Currently in Russia 93% is wage-earners, that is, employees who have entered into an employment contract, a contract with the head of the enterprise or an oral agreement with an individual on the conditions of work and the amount of remuneration. This also includes persons appointed to a paid position, including the heads of enterprises and organizations.

To persons working on an individual basis, includes citizens who independently carry out activities that generate income, without using hired labor (with the exception of casual or seasonal work). This group of people is not large yet - 4.2%.

TO employers include persons who manage their own private (family) enterprise, farm or work independently, but constantly use the labor of hired workers. In the total number of entrepreneurs running their business (0.9%), men predominate, although gradually women are increasingly engaged in it. As the English say, "there are no men and women in business, there are business partners."

Unpaid family workersare persons who work without pay in a private family business owned by a relative.

Members of collective enterprises- persons working in this enterprise and who are the owners, co-owners of it. They are directly involved in resolving all issues related to the activities of the enterprise, the distribution of its income among the team members.

Persons not amenable to classification by status in employment, there are persons whose information is not enough and (or) who cannot be attributed to any of the listed categories.

For hired workers, statistics study the social composition of the employed, dividing workers into workers and employees

According to the results of the 2010 census, 1.7 million people employed (2.5%) indicated that they have more than one job. Of the total number of people employed in the economy at the age of 15-72, the absolute majority - 61.6 million people (94%) - are employed. Compared to 2002, the number of employees increased by 5.8%.

The number of employers attracting hired workers for their activities amounted to 1.4 million people (in 2002 - 923 thousand people).

The change in the economic activity of the population aged 15-64 living in private households in the intercensal period is characterized by the following data:

Table 7 - Composition of unemployed and employed

	Mln. human	2010 in% to 2002	In% to the total
2002 year	2010 r.	2002 year	2010 r.
Population of private households aged 15-64, including:	99,8	101,2	101,5
economically active population, including:	67,1	71,2	106,1	67,2	70,3
employed in the economy	59,7	64,9	108,8	59,8	64,1
of them pensioners	3,7	6,4	174,6	3,7	6,3
unemployed	7,4	6,3	84,5	7,4	6,2
of them pensioners	0,7	0,6	84,4	0,7	0,6
economically inactive population, including:	30,9	25,4	82,2	31,0	25,1
fellows	2,8	2,1	74,3	2,8	2,0
pensioners	12,1	11,6	96,1	12,1	11,5
who did not indicate economic activity and persons for whom information was obtained from administrative sources	1,8	4,6	260,0	1,8	4,6

Examples of solving problems:

Objective 1.

The following data are available on the size of the economically active population (thousand).

Population 2515

Employees of working age 920

Individuals 120

Unpaid family workers 125

Employers 15

Members of cooperatives 150

Collective farmers 90

Persons without a job and looking for it (previously employed) 145

First time job seekers 5

Younger people 50

Students of working age with a break from work 150

Household and childcare workers 150

Pensioners and disabled 520

Employed persons of retirement age 30

Employed persons under working age 10

Non-working persons of working age who do not need to work 30

Persons who have been unemployed for a long time, who have stopped looking but are ready to work 5

Determine the following indicators: the number of employed, the number of unemployed, the number of economically active population, the coefficient of economic activity, the rate of employment.

Solution:

1. The number of employed (

2. The number of unemployed (

3. The number of economically active population (

4. Coefficient of economic activity (

5. Employment ratio (

Objective 2.

The payroll number of employees of the enterprise was (people):

Determine the average payroll number of employees of the enterprise.

Solution:

The average number of employees of the enterprise is determined by the formula of the arithmetic weighted average:

Questions for self-test:

1. What groups of the population make up the labor force?

2. What does the term “economically active population” mean?

3. What groups of the population belong to the economically inactive population?

4. How are unemployed people defined by the ILO?

5. What indicators characterize the state of labor resources?

6. Name the groups of the economically active population in the classification by status in employment.

7. How are the indicators of the demographic load of the population calculated?

8. What sources of information about the labor market do you know?

9. Explain on conditional examples the method of calculating the average payroll: 1) for a month; 2) for a quarter, half a year, a year.

Sanitary statistics

1. Sanitary statistics: tasks and data sources. Clinical statistics concept

2. Indicators of health of the population: demographic, morbidity and self-assessment of health by the population

3. Indicators characterizing the health care system and the level of medical services

4. Indicators of industrial injuries

5. Indicators characterizing the state of the environment in terms of their safety for humans