Frozen deposits of Sberbank. Can deposits be frozen? How secure are deposits in Russian banks? How to keep your money - deposits or stocking

Restrictions on the issue of cash is a rather extreme measure in relation to its population. The last 2 times in the history of Russia, this happened from 1941 to 1944 and in 1991. In 1991, according to some estimates, citizens lost $ 600 billion, which, even without taking into account inflation and the 1998 denomination in current rubles, is 46 trillion. or 3 budgets of Russia. The current amount, almost 23 trillion. rubles kept by the population in deposits in the conditions also becomes a tasty morsel. However, the probability of freezing deposits in 2016, although different from zero, is not great. Why?

• At the current rate of spending budgetary funds, money from the Reserve and the National Welfare Fund, for at least another 2 years. At the same time, it is planned to hold some, and the long-term will look for support above the current levels. So the money cushion is still there.
• Don't forget about the autumn elections. It seems that the “freeze”, along with the 2-fold depreciation of the national currency that has already occurred, will not add optimism to the voters, and in this case, the voting may bring surprises. Although, provided that 2/3 of Russians do not have any savings at all, room for maneuver remains here as well.
• Generally speaking, it is rather naive to talk about the impossibility of fulfilling ruble obligations within the country. Choosing between an internal default, a “freeze” of deposits and inflation through the inclusion of a “printing press”, the state will most likely choose the latter. That is, the problem of ruble debts is rather arbitrary - there is always a State Sign to solve it. Foreign currency deposits are another matter.

And what about foreign currency deposits?

Dollars and euros, unlike rubles, cannot be printed. The share of foreign currency deposits in the total structure is 30%, in dollar terms - $ 90 billion. That in itself is not a critically large amount - it is comparable. However, even if the influx of foreign currency depositors to banks happens and becomes a problem, you can resort to a scheme for forced conversion of currency into rubles at the current exchange rate of the Central Bank, as is the case with foreign currency deposits in case of revocation of a banking license. And as we have already noted, rubles in emergency situations are not such a big problem for the government.

The reserve also includes the so-called "Cypriot option", when banks' obligations to depositors can be forcibly converted into shares or long-term bonds. The introduction of such a mechanism for large (from 100 million rubles) depositors is being discussed at the Ministry of Finance.

In what case can they still freeze?

Deposits can temporarily freeze or limit the amount to be issued in case of panic among depositors. This usually requires several factors, as in December 2014. Then, after the overnight increase of the key rate by the Central Bank by 6.5%, the rates of the euro and dollar rose during the day to 23%. Amid panic for some

I am writing this text on Monday evening, March 17, 2014. First sanctions adopted, they are directed against Russian and Ukrainian politicians. But this is just the beginning. Since the Ukrainian crisis will probably last for a long time, maybe other actions by Russia will follow, which the US + EU will not like, and we can expect an escalation of the crisis, as well as the introduction of new sanctions.

Formulation of the problem

In this situation, representatives of the Russian middle class you need to think about how to adjust your finances for the crisis. For citizens of other countries, apparently, these reflections will not be relevant, at least not yet. And there - who knows. It is necessary to tune in not only to sanctions, but also to a crisis, since sanctions by themselves may not be aimed at the middle class, but will provoke a crisis that will hit the middle class. I do not undertake to predict exactly how events will develop, but I believe that at such a moment as now, we must prepare for the worst and hope for the best. So what's the "worst"?

I think that the worst scenario would be the arrest and confiscation of all Russian assets in the US + EU + in countries that are political allies of the US and the EU (in Switzerland, for example). This may mean that funds in bank accounts, securities, real estate, other property and assets of ALL Russians, and not just politicians, are confiscated. And not only individuals, but also legal entities (both state-owned and private), and even the Russian state. This is my script called Apocalypse. I don’t even want to think about how many percent it is possible, and under what scenario, and how we will answer. It's just - the worst scenario in my understanding.

Photo source: Freeimages.com

Could foreign currency deposits surprise you? They can, and how. In this column I will explain why foreign currency deposits are more dangerous than ruble deposits.

The ruble downshifter is rapidly diving down following the falling oil. And the price of oil from North Dakota has completely dropped below zero. The prophecy attributed to Saltykov-Shchedrin will soon come true: "It's nothing that in Europe they give one fifty rubles for our ruble, it will be worse if they start giving in the face for our ruble." Plus, the sanctions do not help to strengthen the wooden one.

Budget revenues, which essentially consist of oil and gas revenues, are falling. The growing budget deficit must be financed somehow. You can, of course, raise taxes, cut expenses, sell property, while not everything is stolen. But tax increases and cuts in social spending are fraught with a social explosion. And large-scale privatization, paradoxically, is possible only at the expense of the budget. Therefore, the state will have to scratch the pockets of depositors, in which about 22 trillion rubles are lying around. For comparison: Russia's GDP in 2014 amounted to 71.4 trillion rubles.

More experienced people do not flatter the higher interest rates of ruble deposits and prefer foreign currency deposits to them. But, as we know, there is a threaded screw for every cunning investor. In fact, foreign currency deposits in an unstable developing economy are more dangerous than deposits in national currency. Because in addition to the freeze, which is applicable both to deposits in national currency and to foreign currency deposits, a specific ambush is also possible: forced conversion of foreign currency deposits into deposits in national currency at a rate that is very far from the market one.

We have already passed the freeze of deposits. You can read about the freezing of deposits in the USSR during the Great Patriotic War in my column "Wars and Deposits" on Banki.ru. But we have not yet had a forced conversion of deposits. There are examples only from foreign practice. For example, in January 2002 in Argentina dollar deposits were forcibly converted into peso deposits at the official rate of 1.4 per dollar, while all deposits, both in foreign currency and in pesos, were frozen. On June 25, 2002, the exchange rate fell to 3.86 pesos per dollar. All depositors got caught, but especially foreign ones.

Does the state have incentives to force the conversion of foreign currency deposits? Of course there is. First, this conversion will mean a sharp decline in the liabilities of banks, including state ones. Secondly, in the context of the raid of depositors on banks, foreign currency depositors are especially dangerous for the state: the overhang of foreign currency deposits can collapse on the economy, because in the face of a sharp decline in exports, banks will eventually take currency for settlements with foreign currency depositors from the international reserves of the Central Bank. And they are already pretty empty: on August 8, 2008, the foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation reached a historical maximum of $ 598.1 billion, and as of January 8, 2016, they dropped to $ 368.1 billion. Ruble depositors are not so dangerous for financial stability - rubles for settlements with them can be printed.

What kind of pressure on international reserves can we talk about? The amount of foreign currency deposits in Russian banks as of December 1, 2015 amounted to 6.1 trillion rubles, or 91.8 billion dollars.

Of course, “soft” expropriation may cause outrage among robbed depositors, which is hardly necessary before the elections. But this expropriation will be accepted calmly if it becomes a reaction to some next military conflict. For example, with Turkey.

Do you have savings in dollars or euros? In this case, you will probably be interested in the question of what will happen with foreign currency deposits in Russia, will it be profitable to formalize them, have new laws been adopted that tighten their use? All this will be discussed further in our article.

Foreign currency deposits to date

According to the data transmitted by the leading banking companies of our country, at the beginning of 2017, there was an increased activity among depositors who had savings in foreign currency. This was explained by the fact that many of them made deposits in 2016 on favorable terms, and now it was time to either close the agreement or prolong it.

If everything is clear when closing an account - you receive your originally invested amount + interest on pre-agreed conditions, then with prolongation everything is not so smooth.

Let us recall that this concept means the extension of the deposit on the terms relevant to it, and if there is no such program in the bank anymore, then the extension is carried out on the terms of the product "On demand".

What does renewal on current terms mean? This means that the validity period of your deposit, the deposited amount + income, the frequency of charges and additional options remain unchanged, but the percentage will be changed to the one offered by the bank at the time of prolongation.

And it is for this reason that many citizens prefer to close the account altogether and send money to purchases, for example, to purchase a vacation tour, than to extend it under unfavorable conditions.

What will happen in our country with deposits in foreign currency?

It is quite obvious that if Russians begin to actively invest and then increase them with the help of a deposit, then this negatively adds up to the stability of the ruble and its exchange rate.

It is for this reason that banks seek to reduce interest rates on foreign exchange programs as much as possible in order to reduce their attractiveness to consumers.

Various "horror stories" are often heard in the press, for example, that they want to ban such deposits altogether, or to appoint a higher one, or to forcibly convert them into rubles. We hasten to reassure you - all these are only the proposals of some deputies, which have no legal force.

Converting your savings into rubles is indeed possible, but only if the bank where you serve loses its license.

Is it worth making out such deposits now?

Experts and analysts agree that now is not the best time to invest in foreign exchange. The ruble rate is gradually increasing, it is strengthening in relation to other world currencies, banks offer interest rates lower and lower every month.

However, if it is important for you to keep your savings in a banking organization, then we can offer you some options. When choosing, be guided not only by the conditions of the program, but also by the reliability of the company.

To invest in US dollars, you should contact:

• UniCredit Bank - rate up to 3%,
• Bank Saint Petersburg - up to 2.7%,
• NS Bank - up to 2.6%,
• B&N Bank, SMP Bank, Russian International Bank - up to 2.5%,
• Globex Bank - up to 2.25%.

For savings in euros:

• BBR Bank - up to 1.8%,
• Lightbank - up to 1.75%,
• Russian International Bank - up to 1.5%,
• Orient Express Bank - up to 1.45%,
• UBRD - up to 1.3% per annum.

Thus, according to experts, in 2019 Russia will continue to reduce rates on foreign currency deposits, so it is better to find other areas for investing money

One fine morning began with a distinctly conscious sense of an impending event of a major scale. A sharp and one-time change in the rules of the game. In my professional field, of course. And it is much more serious than the constantly expected collapse of the stock market or further devaluation. This has already become a habitual thing, to which at the very least I have adapted, defended myself to the best of my ability and live with it.

In short, it was as clear as day: we are expecting surprises, extremely unpleasant, and very soon. Those who want to make fun of "Vanga" can stop here and go directly to the comments. I'll warn you right away: this is a premonition for a completely sober head.

For the rest - the result of reasoning.

As an extremely rational person, such intuitive things are extremely uncomfortable for me, so I had to build a tree of options, otherwise you will become paranoid. Raise numbers, try to link them together.

I think that the only financial event that has a global effect within the country can only be something from the banking sector. In politics now, too, a lot of things will happen (it does not matter, in the external or in the internal). Something will affect finances, some will not, but we will leave it out of brackets.

Mass effect here is possible only from events with deposits and (or) money circulation and nothing else. I am ready to listen to other options and discuss them later, but here I am putting out the rationale for exactly the option that I have in the first place in terms of probability for implementation. The rest is a restriction on cash circulation, on cross-border transfers, then in descending order.

So, we list:

The central bank announced that it will roll out a list of 50-60 systemically important credit institutions. It is possible to discuss the idiocy of this step later, but the most obvious consequence is that in a short time the rest of the banks will simply die, carried out by depositors and clients. And the timing is not important here.

There are 854 banks in the country.

According to statistics for the 1st half of 2013, 41% of deposits exceed the insured level of 700 thousand rubles.

The volume of household deposits almost reached 17 trillion rubles last year.

The concentration of deposits in the top 30 banks is almost 79%, and in the potential top 60 - no less than 85–88%.

According to the results of the cleaning 2013–2014. private depositors lost 51.9 billion rubles not covered by deposit insurance. The business suffered losses in burst banks for 81 billion. The figures have not yet been verified, you can ignore them if you wish, but I personally trust their source.

The size of the DIA fund is approximately 160 billion rubles. You can dig up a specific figure, but it is clear that almost all deposits were issued by loans, the rest - in the cash desks of banks or on correspondent accounts with the Central Bank. In other words, physically your deposits in the bank have long been gone. I believe that 45-60% are consumer and corporate loans, 10-15% bonds, 10-15% cash desk and correspondent accounts (instant liquidity), and so on, little things. Bankers can provide specific information.

We simulate.

The economy continues to collapse, as does the cleaning of the banking sector. We rolled out a list of the top 60 banks. This means that approximately 17 trillion * (100% - 85%) \u003d 2.5 trillion will end up in "non-systemic" banks, the number of which is almost 800. Of these "non-system" deposits, about 2.5 trillion * 41% \u003d 1 trillion exceed the level of 700,000 rubles. Considering that according to the results of cleaning only a couple of dozen banks in 2013–2014. irreplaceable losses of depositors of more than 50 billion rubles, the massive movement of withdrawal of money will jeopardize hundreds of billions not covered by insurance. DIA size - 160 billion.

And I ask you not to forget about the billions of businesses in current accounts with such banks. I suspect that 40-50% of this money is for salaries and 15-20% for taxes. That is, even those who may not have deposits in banks at all will suffer, as well as the budget. Although this is a debatable question, I judge only by a few familiar entrepreneurs who have got on "".

As of today, there is no or I do not know the mechanism of additional capitalization of the DIA with budget money. In principle, it is possible, as we all know, to pass any law within two days. But with the tension in the budget today, no one has a special desire to hang such gigantic additional expenses on the treasury.

Therefore, just as it was with the devaluation, there are many interested parties to freeze deposits, ranging from the budget to large banking structures that have long wanted to have irrevocable deposits (which is natural). And almost no one, except the population, of course, who is against. But if, with an almost man-made devaluation, they spat on it, then we can continue. Moreover, according to VTsIOM, the president has an extremely high rating, that is, there is also a political component. A person with such a rating can heartily ask to wait a couple of months, understand, forgive, and everyone will put up with it. And we know that there is nothing more permanent than temporary.

A piece of $ 500 billion worth of citizens' accounts can be turned into a permanent resource. Moreover, according to polls, 55-60% of citizens fully agree with the Soviet economic model and, apparently, this is exactly the bulk of those 75-80% of the population who have no savings at all. So we are mentally ready for any restrictions in politics or economics. The remaining 20-25% of the “beneficiaries” of the monetary reform will swallow and humble themselves. I believe that if the scenario happens, we will not die of hunger, they will be allowed to issue 20-50 thousand times a month. Well, or they will introduce a limit on the payment of cards.

Now, when there is no longer a need to pretend and build a mythical financial center, when there is a lot of pressure from outside, there are practically no restrictions in the domestic financial policy. Up to the physical seizure of precious metals (like Roosevelt in the United States during the Great Depression), cash, especially in foreign currency. Those who remember the monetary reform according to Pavlov and the freezing according to Gaidar will understand. I repeat once again: no restrictions of any repressive nature.

There is only one condition: to maximize the effect of taking measures of this kind and scale, they should be as unexpected as possible. Honestly, I don't see a more convenient moment than now.