Seven signs that a bank is in trouble, as exemplified by Otkritie and B&N Bank. Bank stability and reliability. financial analysis of unicredit bank unicredit bank liquidity problems

How many rumors will not appear in the near future: and that Uralsib Bank will close in 2018, and Home Credit Bank will soon be closed, and Russian Standard Bank has already closed, and Vostochny Express Bank will close in 2018. Such conversations are more likely a consequence of the client's unpleasant experience at the bank than believable statements.

Judging by the reviews and comments of users, the banks are to blame, even if the client himself was late in payment or signed an unfavorable agreement with an inflated interest on the loan. Yes, banks take advantage of the financial ignorance and arrogance of their customers, but let's be honest: we ourselves are to blame for our troubles.

How to understand that the bank will close

Often, leaks from the Central Bank of Russia help determine which of the credit financial institutions will close, namely:

• news of the upcoming revocation of the license of financial institutions,
• rumors about the introduction of an interim administration,
• downgrading of rating agencies that are directly subordinate to the Central Bank of Russia,
• problems with receiving cash at ATMs and cash desks of financial institutions, etc.

The central bank as a mega-regulator has much more leverage and forecasting tools than we are used to thinking. On the example of the organizations that make up the ratings, one can already guess about the problems of the bank or about the attitude of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to it. They do not simply deprive them of licenses, this is preceded by clear events: poor reporting of credit institutions, "holes" in the balance sheet, flight of directors with capital abroad, difficulties in obtaining cash, etc. Therefore, when assessing the possible bankruptcy of a bank, evaluate the likelihood of revoking the license according to the points above.

List of reliable banks for 2018

Below we give a forecast which banks will not close in 2018 in Russia. The list was compiled on the basis of the deposits of each bank, the network of branches, the volume of assets and loans issued. The rating will be useful, first of all, to depositors in bank deposits.

Banks rating by assets:

1. Sberbank of Russia
2. GazPromBank
3. VTB 24
4. FC Otkritie
5. RosSelHozBank
6. Alfa Bank
7. Bank of Moscow
8. National Clearing Center
9. UniCredit Bank

It is unlikely that these banks will close anytime soon. Mergers are possible, but the licenses of these banks will certainly not be revoked. It is noteworthy that according to the profit rating, the list of banks remains the same, with the exception of the National Clearing Center, which was taken out by RosBank.

From this list, Alfa-Bank stands out as a strong commercial bank, the bank's management has no plans to close in 2018, besides, this bank is among the top three in terms of cash flow in ATMs - right after Sberbank and VTB.

Banks rating by consumer loans:

1. Sberbank of Russia
2. VTB 24
3. GazPromBank
4. RosSelHozBank
5. Bank of Moscow
6. Alfa Bank
7. RifeFeisenBank
8. Rosbank
9. HCF Bank
10. Orient Express Bank

In this list, we see loans issued to ordinary users for consumption. Looks apart from the giants of the Orient Express market. The bank closes or not in 2018 - wait and see, we must carefully read the loan and deposit agreements, observe the financial statistics of banks, including the ratio of loans and attracted deposits.

Full list of banks

It is not easy to predict the closure of banks in Russia in 2018, the list of unreliable banks changes every 2-4 weeks. We will share statistics, on the basis of which you can decide for yourself whether the bank will go bankrupt in the near future or not.

Bank reliability rating by assets as of January 2018

A place	Bank	Capital, RUB million
1	SBERBANK OF RUSSIA	1945905833
2	VTB	948588518
3	VNESHECONOMBANK	368584340
4	GAZPROMBANK	333854635
5	ROSSELHOZBANK	217650802
6	VTB 24	178226766
7	ALFA BANK	175492362
8	BANK OF MOSCOW	161241774
9	UNICREDIT BANK	129894505
10	FC OPENING	120347672
11	ROSBANK	115723340
12	RAIFFEISENBANK	103022027
13	PROMSVYAZBANK	59255680
14	CITIBANK	56344583
15	MDM BANK	55073976
16	KHANTY-MANSIYSK BANK OPENING	46766584
17	BANK "SAINT-PETERSBURG	46358807
18	CREDIT BANK OF MOSCOW	43847588
19	URALSIB	43442887
20	HCF BANK	42799327
21	RUSSIA	40552281
22	AK BARS	38961154
23	RUSSIAN STANDARD	38919484
24	NATIONAL CLEARING CENTER	37861245
25	NORDEA BANK	32884937
26	ING BANK (EURASIA)	31803253
27	SVIAZ-BANK	30072189
28	OTP BANK	27875411
29	ZENITH	26041511
30	ABSOLUT BANK	25940565
31	REVIVAL	24366352
32	SMP BANK	24203509
33	EASTERN EXPRESS	23975208
34	B&N Bank	23604038
35	MOSCOW INDUSTRIAL BANK	23347403
36	MTS-BANK	23034031
37	CENTROCREDIT	22365230
38	RUSFINANCE BANK	21468541
39	ROSEVROBANK	21174183
40	SOVKOMBANK	19974792
41	GLOBEX-BANK	19491904
42	PETROKOMMERTS	19486998
43	TCS BANK	18544242
44	TRANSCAPITALBANK	17511470
45	OBVERSE	17056782
46	NORTHERN SEA ROUTE	16918862
47	CREDIT EUROPE BANK	16729973
48	Deutsche Bank	16633272
49	VNESHPROMBANK	16225135
50	AVANTGARDE	15332684
51	TATFONDBANK	15015233
52	RUSSIAN CREDIT	14832971
53	DELTACREDIT	14815839
54	YUGRA	14721565
55	RUSSIAN CAPITAL	14195154
56	BANK OF TOKYO-MITSUBISHI UFJEY (EURASIA)	13705000
57	BANK CREDIT SWISS (MOSCOW)	13547018
58	UBRIR	13014328
59	MIDZUHO CORPORATE BANK (MOSCOW)	12687309
60	INVESTMENT TRADING BANK	12515944
61	BANK ROSGOSSTRAH	12468960
62	ASIAN-PACIFIC BANK	12375681
63	RENAISSANCE CREDIT	11973535
64	INTESA	11951626
65	J.P. MORGAN BANK INTERNATIONAL	11854580
66	HC-ES-BBC BANK (RR)	11698156
67	KOMMERTSBANK (EURASIA)	11679538
68	ZAPSIBKOMBANK	11309207
69	SKB-BANK	11219725
70	NATIONAL SETTLEMENT DEPOSITORY (NPO)	11187390
71	PERESVET	11173648
72	SUMITOMO MITSUI RUS BANK	10824762
73	NOVIKOMBANK	10406528
74	NOTA-BANK	10305648
75	SETELEM BANK	10193181
76	EUROFINANCE MOSNARBANK	10161096
77	LOKO-BANK	10157816
78	BFA BANK	9263375
79	PROBUSINESS BANK	9117174
80	CENTER-INVEST	8974752
81	TOYOTA BANK	8862692
82	VOLKSWAGEN BANK RUS	8774530
83	RN BANK	8698937
84	FONDSERVISBANK	8651110
85	NATIONAL RESERVE BANK	8557474
86	UNION	8320551
87	SURGUTNEFTEGAZBANK	7934867
88	Svyaznoy BANK	7541645
89	SUMMER BANK	7517221
90	MOSCOW MORTGAGE AGENCY	7446504
91	METKOMBANK	7280143
92	KUBAN CREDIT	7216444
93	EXPOBANK	7072251
94	METALLINVESTBANK	6945672
95	BNP PARIBAS	6927725
96	CHELINDBANK	6852935
97	CHELYABINVESTBANK	6846837
98	UNIASTRUM BANK	6825478
99	SOVIET	6588398
100	MERCEDES-BENZ BANK RUS	6432118

Over the past month, two private Russian banks from the top 20 have come under the reorganization of the Central Bank. The fact that something was wrong with Otkritie Bank was said long before it was on the verge of closing. After the Central Bank agreed to save FC Otkritie, he turned to the regulator for help. It is noteworthy that both of these credit institutions, as well as Promsvyazbank and Moscow Credit Bank, were mentioned in the letter to Alfa-Capital Management Company. The analyst of the organization stated in August about their possible instability.

Meanwhile, the Central Bank assures: there is no need to fear the domino effect in the Russian banking sector. According to the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Vasily Pozdyshev, after the letter from the analyst of Alfa-Capital, many banks have reduced the number of ties between themselves.

Someone realized that it is better to isolate a little more so that the domino effect does not arise, and according to the results of this work, the domino effect is excluded, there is no risk. If there was a revocation of the license, then we could talk about the domino effect, and the Banking Sector Consolidation Fund provides support in terms of liquidity, banks continue to work as usual.

The Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank emphasized that until recently cross schemes were actively used by all banks, and not only by FC Otkritie, B&N Bank, MKB and Promsvyazbank.

How banks went the bailout path

In the situation with B&N Bank, the regulator uses the same scheme as in the first reorganization of FC Otkritie: the Central Bank will become the main investor. A moratorium on the satisfaction of creditors 'claims is not introduced, the mechanism of forced conversion of creditors' funds into shares (bail-in) is not applied. This is the second case of the reorganization of a banking group by the Banking Sector Consolidation Fund controlled by the Central Bank.

The meaning of the reorganization is to enable the bank to continue its activities, but under the control of the Central Bank. At the same time, the Central Bank will receive 75% of Binbank shares.

B&N Bank and Otkritie are banks from the top twenty credit institutions of the country in terms of assets: as of August 1, B&N Bank was ranked 12th among Russian credit institutions in terms of assets with 1.2 trillion rubles, and FC Otkritie was in 8th place with assets of 2.16 trillion rubles. The scenarios for bank reorganization differ, but some unpleasant calls coincide.

Outflow of funds

As in the situation with Otkritie, in summer Binbank began to outflow depositors' funds. In August, the amount of household deposits decreased by 22.1 billion rubles. According to RIA "Rating", Binbank's deposit portfolio as of July 1 amounted to 552.9 billion rubles.

The outflow of funds of individuals and legal entities from B&N Bank in September amounted to 56 billion rubles. One third of the outflow is from individuals, primarily those whose deposits exceeded the insured limit of 1.4 million rubles. According to preliminary estimates of the Central Bank, the need for additional capitalization of B&N Bank currently reaches 250-350 billion rubles.

For example: in June, Otkritie left 105.8 billion rubles. from corporate time deposits. 72.5% of the funds were taken by government agencies. Against the background of negative information about the problems of the bank in July, depositors took from it 617 billion rubles. The bank itself called the outflow “planned” and stressed that it had prepared a liquidity cushion in advance.

Problem warning

On August 16, Alfa-Capital Management Company sent out letters to its clients informing them about the problems with four Russian banks, including Otkrytie and B&N Bank. The risks, according to the company's representatives, are primarily exposed to the issues of subordinated bonds, "which, in the event of a reorganization, are likely to be written off in full."

This, according to experts, could have caused the outflow of funds of Binbank's depositors (customers began to take money from Otkrytie much earlier - in May).

However, the management of the Alfa-Capital Management Company stated that this was only the personal point of view of an individual employee. And they immediately disowned the opinion of the manager of Alfa-Capital and denied the information that Otkrytie, B&N Bank, Promsvyazbank and MKB had problems.

Representatives of the two remaining banks of the Moscow Ring said that the reorganization would not affect the interests of Promsvyazbank and MKB. “The position of the bank is stable, the bank fulfills all the requirements of the Central Bank with a margin. The resource base remains well diversified in terms of sources of capital attraction, "- said in Promsvyazbank.

Distressed assets

As did FC Otkrytie, which lost 2.6 billion rubles. due to problems in Peresvet (the group was one of the bank's creditors), B&N Bank faced great difficulties because of its own assets. The head of the Board of Directors Mikail Shishkhanov explained the financial condition of Binbank by a miscalculation in the business strategy, as well as by the problems of the rehabilitated Rost-Bank and the merged MDM-Bank.

Earlier, I did not calculate the business strength: the problems of Rost-Bank, which was taken over for reorganization, and MDM-Bank turned out to be much more serious than it was expected in the conditions of the falling market and the prevailing economic conjuncture. And I fully share the position of the Central Bank, one of the most important tasks of which is to maintain stability in the Russian financial market.

Earlier in an interview with RBC, Shishkhanov also stated that he did not expect that MDM Bank would have such bad assets.

It is precisely the aggressive growth through the acquisition of new assets that many experts associate with the emergence of problems at both Otkritie and B&N Bank.

Kirill Lukashuk, Senior Director of the Analytical Credit Rating Agency:

Vasily Oleinik, expert of the investment holding "Finam":

Four more signs that the bank is in trouble

Despite the fact that the clients of Otkritie and B&N Bank will not suffer during the reorganization, such fluctuations in the banking market do not add peace of mind to depositors. However, even before the revocation of the license, credit organizations look quite well: they invite new clients, advertise their services, and deny all the negative. It is impossible to guess who will be next. But it is still worth paying attention to a few points (however, this is not at all a guarantee that something will happen to the bank).

Bank interruptions, reduced number of offices and frequent breakdowns

Everything looks rather innocent: due to some external reasons or "intrigue of enemies" a failure occurs in the bank's system. Money transfer freezes, ATMs stop working, as does Internet banking. The last two examples are Yugra and Otkritie. In the first case, everything was explained by a technical failure, in the second - by cable damage.

Disconnecting a bank from BESP

The Banking Electronic Urgent Payments (BESP) system is used to make large urgent payments in rubles in real time across the country. In case of violation of the established requirements, the regulator may partially or completely restrict the participant's access to the BESP system. In most cases, this means that the regulator has complaints about its work. In rare cases, disconnection from this system is temporary, caused by a technical failure.

High stakes

Reliable banks will never offer you very high rates. Often, a troubled bank raises rates sharply to attract new depositors. The average maximum rate of the top 10 Russian banks on household deposits in rubles over the third decade of August was 7.33%. The Central Bank recommends that banks not exceed the average maximum rate of the top 10 credit institutions by more than 3.5 percentage points.

Downgrade

The reliability of banks is assessed not only by the Central Bank, but also by independent Russian and foreign rating agencies. However, there is already a matter of taste - to trust such publications or not. But, for example, shortly before Otkrytie's reorganization, the analytical credit rating agency (ACRA) assigned Otkritie FC a BBB- rating on the national scale with a stable outlook. The rating agency has assigned such a low rating to a private systemically important bank for the first time.

Why the Central Bank is saving banks

After the announcement of the reorganization, it turned out that the owners of B&N Bank had been negotiating with the Central Bank for a year to find a way out of the problem situation. The decision to ask the regulator for reorganization was made after the owners did not find the funds to capitalize their bank.

From B&N Bank press release:

Speaking about the reasons for the reorganization of B&N Bank, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Vasily Pozdyshev noted that despite the fact that the bank was not formally one of the systemically important Russian banks (such as Otkritie), the aggregate balance sheets of the banks of the group represent a systemically important group of credit institutions ... B&N Bank is also included in the list of significant organizations in the payment services market.

Vasily Pozdyshev, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank:

Earlier, the deputy chairman of the Central Bank Dmitry Tulin said that there were no significant banks with a “hopeless and dangerous for society” business model, like the bank “Yugra”. And you shouldn't wait for licenses to be revoked from large, significant banks.

The list of systemically important banks includes ten large credit institutions, which together account for about 60% of the total assets of the Russian banking sector. This is UniCredit Bank; Bank GPB; VTB, Alfa-Bank; Sberbank; FC "Otkrytie"; Rosbank; Promsvyazbank; JSC Raiffeisenbank; JSC "Rosselkhozbank".

The text used quotes from TASS, RBK, RIA Novosti, Kommersant-FM, Reuters

Why repo is growing

The increase in the volume of banks' REPO debt to the Central Bank in January immediately amounted to about 30 billion rubles. - an atypical situation in recent months. After the announcement of the reorganization of FC Otkritie Bank with the participation of the Central Bank, the volume of expensive liquidity attracted from the Central Bank gradually decreased. In October, the average volume of debt on repo with a fixed rate was 12.06 billion rubles, in November - 4.23 billion rubles, and in December - 2.31 billion rubles. At the same time, the maximum volume in December was 4.6 billion rubles, according to data from the Central Bank.

Most players in the current environment do not make sense to raise funds for expensive REPO transactions with the Central Bank, market participants say. “Now banks are experiencing a surplus of ruble liquidity, especially in the short term, supply on the interbank market exceeds demand,” says Alexander Karpov, head of the department of conversion and interbank operations at Zenit Bank. "During the day, the interbank market rates were 7%, which is close to the minimum level offered by the Central Bank for one-day standing deposit operations." The rates for attracting deposits to the Central Bank from January 15 have been set at 6.75%.

History of the issue

The last time a sharp increase in debt on REPO transactions with the Central Bank was noted in July-August. Since July 11, the volume of repo debt has increased almost daily and by August 1 reached RUB 404 billion, and by August 31 it has reached its maximum value in 2017 - RUB 767.2 billion.

As it turned out later, almost the entire summer increase in debt was provided by the borrowings of the FC Otkritie bank. Having received a BBB- rating from ACRA in June, the bank was unable to attract funds from the federal budget and pension savings, experienced an outflow of funds from the accounts of corporate and private clients, etc. In July and August, clients took over RUB 660 billion from the bank. As a result, on August 29, the Central Bank announced the reorganization of FC Otkritie under a new scheme with direct participation of the Central Bank as an investor and attracting funds from the Banking Sector Consolidation Fund (FCBS).

Who could borrow on REPO now

A one-time increase in the volume of repo debt to the Central Bank could have been provided by one player who is in dire need of liquidity, experts say. “In general, the liquidity in the banking sector is significant in the system, but some players may experience a deficit,” says Alexander Danilov. “Most likely, we are talking about one player who has a need for liquidity, but there are no cheaper options for attracting, for example, limits on the interbank market are closed or have already been selected,” says Denis Poryvai, an analyst at Raiffeisenbank.

Fluctuations in the volume of debt could be associated with the borrower's attempts to raise funds from alternative sources, for example, to sell securities or other assets in order to pay off an expensive debt to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. However, since the debt has grown again, perhaps due to the continued outflow of funds from corporate clients, the player still needs liquidity and the same securities could be pledged again, the analyst adds.

Banks are reluctant to disclose data on their activity in the interbank lending market, since usually the limits on the interbank market are closed for players whose financial position is suspicious, says the treasurer of one of the large banks. “In particular, this was the situation in the summer with the bank FC Otkritie,” he recalls. - Already in September, after the announcement of the reorganization of FC Otkritie, banks began to restore the limits of its lending. About this, in particular,.

According to the analyst of Raiffeisenbank, to raise about 30 billion rubles at a time on REPO. could a bank with assets of 200 billion rubles. RBC sent inquiries to market participants with assets of RUB 200 billion or more. (37 banks) regarding whether they raised funds for this instrument. Ten banks (VTB, UniCredit Bank, HomeCredit Bank, Zenit, Absolut Bank, Vostochny, Novikombank, Vozrozhdenie, Sovcombank, Svyaz-Bank) reported that they did not raise funds from the Central Bank on REPO at a fixed rate during the period January 9-12. “Bank Vozrozhdenie did not attract money from the Central Bank,” Chairman of the Board of Bank Vozrozhdenie Mark Nakhmanovich told RBC. - On the contrary, during this period, the bank placed free liquidity on the interbank lending and repo market in the amount of RUB 7 billion to RUB 10 billion. daily". “They didn’t attract it, because the instrument was not profitable,” Dmitry Gusev, Chairman of the Board of Sovcombank PJSC, told RBC. - Periodically, we conduct tests about once a year that everything works, and we take a small amount. The last time they were attracted was in the first quarter of 2017 ”. The remaining 27 financial institutions did not respond to RBC's request.

The regulator did not make any statements that the banking sector recovery is over, reminds the senior director of ACRA Kirill Lukashuk. “There are players in the sector (both small and relatively large) whose financial sustainability raises many questions,” he says. - Their further fate depends on the position of shareholders and how much they can listen to the recommendations of the Central Bank.

FC Otkritie returned to the Bank of Russia the resources provided at the end of August to support the bank ahead of schedule. This was announced yesterday by the head of the bank, Mikhail Zadornov. In early February, the second tranche of funds was returned in the amount of 180 billion rubles. The first tranche, for 150 billion rubles, was returned by the bank at the end of last year. Thus, the bank could return expensive resources to the regulator, while continuing to use cheap funds.

One of the bank's VIP clients who attended the meeting with Mr. Zadornov told Kommersant that Otkritie FC Bank early returned 180 billion rubles to the Central Bank in February. This information was confirmed by the bank. Thus, if we take into account the 150 billion rubles that the bank returned last year, Otkritie returned almost half (46.5%) of the liquidity received from the regulator last year since the beginning of the reorganization.

According to Kommersant's information, the head of FC Otkritie Bank Mikhail Zadornov held a meeting on Thursday with the largest clients of the bank's corporate and investment block. At it, he assured representatives of large business of the stability of the bank's work, and also spoke about the early return of almost half of the funds issued by the Bank of Russia shortly before the introduction of the temporary administration. According to Mikhail Zadornov, "the bank is not experiencing problems with liquidity now." At the same time, he noted that "the growth of client funds in December-February speaks about the restoration of client confidence and an increase in the financial stability of the bank." In particular, according to the bank's reporting for December 2017 alone, customer funds increased by 90 billion rubles, to 719 billion rubles. According to the interlocutor of Kommersant, it was important for clients to receive not only statements from the Central Bank about the continuity of activities of FC Otkritie, but also personal assurances from Mr. Zadornov.

Apparently, ahead of schedule, FC Otkritie returned to the Bank of Russia relatively expensive liquidity, which it received at the initial stage of reorganization. According to the bank's statements, in August it received the Central Bank 330 billion rubles. for up to 180 days (see Kommersant, September 19). At the end of September, the Central Bank gave the bank another 380 billion rubles, but for a period of up to three years. Thanks to such injections, the bank stopped the practice of concluding expensive repo deals with the Central Bank (at 10% per annum).

At the same time, according to the agency Fitch, the average cost of funds attracted by FC Otkritie from the Central Bank in the fourth quarter of 2017, that is, in fact, two deposits, amounted to about 4% per annum. This indicator is almost two times lower than the rates of the interbank market prevailing at that time (7.5-8.5% per annum). Bank's desire to return 330 billion rubles ahead of schedule. makes economic sense if this refinancing was provided at a higher price than the average rate. It is possible that the Central Bank could provide the bank with 380 billion rubles. at the standard rate of 0.51% per annum in cases of reorganization, while an earlier and shorter deposit, in 330 billion rubles, at a rate of at least 8% per annum. Thus, the bank could seek to get rid of expensive funds and leave almost free ones. Otkritie FC Bank did not comment on the rates at which the Central Bank provided them with liquidity yesterday.

Ruslan Korshunov, Junior Director for Banking Ratings at Expert RA, notes that these funds were placed in Otkritie to compensate for the outflow of funds of legal entities, which lasted from June to November 2017. The bank, he said, was able to return liquidity after the stabilization of the passive base and the inflow of funds from legal entities in December (an increase of 21%). Alexander Danilov, Senior Director for Financial Institutions at Fitch, agrees with him, who also noted that “the Central Bank has flooded the bank with money in case of continued outflows”.

Vitaly SOLDATSKIKH

"This is a mockery": UniCredit began to block clients' salary cards

Bank with foreign capital UniCredit began to block cards of individual clients.

One of the bank's clients reported this to the Observer.

"Since March 22, my salary card has been blocked. It has 7,283 hryvnias 53 kopecks: I can't buy bread or pay for an apartment," he complained.

According to him, in order to unblock the card, the bank asks not only to pass identification, but illegally demands to provide a declaration.

“Maybe they should give them the keys to the apartment? I don’t understand: this is a salary project, I’m an individual, what kind of declaration? They don’t explain anything to me, they refuse to unblock the card, they refuse to return the money too. I have been serviced in this bank for several years, but I see this for the first time: so that without warning or explanation ... This is a mockery ", - said the client of UniCredit.

When asked by the Observer about the possible reasons for such actions of the financial institution, he suggested that the bank began to have liquidity problems. “Perhaps they just ran out of money, and they are trying to resolve their issues at the expense of clients, including me,” said the client of UniCredit.

Reviewer

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