Seven signs that the bank has problems, on the example of "discoveries" and Binbank. Stability and reliability of the bank. Financial Analysis of the Bank Unicredit Bank UniCredit Problems with liquidity

How many rumors will not appear in the near future: and that the Bank URALSIB is closed in 2018, and the bank home loan will soon close, and the Russian standard bank has already closed, and the Eastern Express Bank closes in 2018. Such conversations - rather a consequence of the unpleasant customer experience in the bank than believable statements.

Judging by the reviews and comments of users, banks are to blame, even if the client himself crossed the payment or signed a disadvantageous agreement with an overestimated loan percentage. Yes, banks enjoy financial illiteracy and self-identity of customers, but we will be honest: we yourself are to blame in our troubles.

How to understand that the bank closes

Often determine which of the credit financial organizations will close, leaks from the Central Bank of Russia, namely:

news of the coming review of the license of financial organizations,
rumors about the introduction of the temporary administration,
reducing the rating of estimated agencies that directly submit to the Central Bank of Russia,
problems to receive cash in ATMs and cash desks of financial organizations, etc.

The central bank as a megaregulator has much more levers of influence and forecasting tools than we are used to thinking. On the example of organizations that make up rating assessments can already be guessing the problems of the bank or the attitude of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to it. Just so licenses do not deprive, this is preceded by clear events: poor reporting of credit institutions, "holes" in balance, flight of directors with capital capital, difficulties in obtaining cash, etc. Therefore, when evaluating the possible bankruptcy of the Bank, estimate the likelihood of license revocation on the points specified above.

List of reliable banks for 2018

Below we give a forecast which banks will not close in 2018 in Russia. The list was based on the contributions of each bank, the network of branches, the volume of assets and issued loans. The rating will be useful, first of all, depositors to bank deposits.

Rating banks on assets:

Sberbank of Russia
Gazprombank
VTB 24
FC discovery
Rosselkhozbank
Alfa Bank
Bank of Moscow
National Clearing Center
UniCredit Bank

It is unlikely that the listed banks will be closed in the near future. Mergers are possible, but these banks probably will not come to the license. It is noteworthy that according to the rating of profit, the list of banks remains the same, with the exception of the National Clearing Center for Rosbank.

From this list, the Alpha Bank is allocated with a strong commercial bank, close in 2018, the Bank's leadership has no plans, besides, this bank is in the top three on the turnover of cash in ATMs - immediately after Sberbank and VTB.

Rating of banks on consumer loans:

Sberbank of Russia
VTB 24
Gazprombank
Rosselkhozbank
Bank of Moscow
Alfa Bank
Raiffeisenbank
Rosbank
CHF Bank
Eastern Express Bank

In this list we see loans issued to ordinary users for consumption. A mansion looks among the giants of the market Eastern Express. The bank closes or not in 2018 - we will live, we will see, we must carefully read credit and deposit treaties, to observe the financial statistics of banks, including the ratio of loans and attracted contributions.

Full list of banks

It is not easy to predict the closure of banks in Russia in 2018, the list of unreliable banks changes every 2-4 weeks. We share statistics, on the basis of which you yourself decide, the bank will go bankrupt in the near future or not.

Ranking Reliability of banks on assets for January 2018

A place	Bank	Capital, million rubles.
1	SBERBANK OF RUSSIA	1945905833
2	VTB	948588518
3	Vnesheconombank	368584340
4	Gazprombank	333854635
5	Rosselkhozbank	217650802
6	VTB 24	178226766
7	ALFA BANK	175492362
8	BANK OF MOSCOW	161241774
9	UNICREDIT BANK	129894505
10	FC discovery	120347672
11	Rosbank	115723340
12	Raiffeisenbank	103022027
13	Promsvyazbank	59255680
14	Citibank	56344583
15	MDM Bank	55073976
16	KHANTY-MANSIYSK BANK OPENING	46766584
17	BANK "SAINT-PETERSBURG	46358807
18	CREDIT BANK OF MOSCOW	43847588
19	Uralsib	43442887
20	CHF Bank	42799327
21	RUSSIA	40552281
22	AK BARS	38961154
23	RUSSIAN STANDARD	38919484
24	National Clearing Center	37861245
25	Nordea Bank	32884937
26	ING Bank (Eurasia)	31803253
27	Svyaz-Bank	30072189
28	OTP Bank	27875411
29	ZENITH	26041511
30	ABSOLUT BANK	25940565
31	Revival	24366352
32	SME Bank	24203509
33	EASTERN EXPRESS	23975208
34	Binbank	23604038
35	MOSCOW INDUSTRIAL BANK	23347403
36	MTS Bank	23034031
37	Centrocredit	22365230
38	Rusfinance Bank	21468541
39	Rosurebank	21174183
40	Sovcombank	19974792
41	Globax Bank	19491904
42	Petrocommerz	19486998
43	TKS Bank	18544242
44	Transcapitalbank	17511470
45	OBVERSE	17056782
46	Northern Sea Path	16918862
47	CREDIT EUROPE BANK	16729973
48	Deutsche Bank	16633272
49	Vesselbank	16225135
50	Avangard	15332684
51	Tatfondbank	15015233
52	Russian credit	14832971
53	Deltacredit	14815839
54	Ugra	14721565
55	Russian capital	14195154
56	Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ufdjay (Eurasia)	13705000
57	Bank Credit Swiss (Moscow)	13547018
58	Ubrir	13014328
59	Mizhuho Corporate Bank (Moscow)	12687309
60	Investment trade bank	12515944
61	BANK ROSGOSSTRAH	12468960
62	Asia-Pacific Bank	12375681
63	RENAISSANCE CREDIT	11973535
64	Inteza	11951626
65	J.P. Morgan Bank International	11854580
66	EIC-ESB-SI Bank (PP)	11698156
67	Commercial Bank (Eurasia)	11679538
68	Zapsibcombank	11309207
69	SKB-BANK.	11219725
70	National Settlement Depository (NPO)	11187390
71	Peresvet.	11173648
72	Sumito Mitsui Rus Bank	10824762
73	Novikombank	10406528
74	Note Bank	10305648
75	SETELEM BANK	10193181
76	Eurofinance Mosnarbank	10161096
77	Loko Bank	10157816
78	Bank BFA	9263375
79	Probusiness Bank	9117174
80	Center-Invest.	8974752
81	Toyota Bank	8862692
82	Volkswagen Bank Rus.	8774530
83	RN Bank	8698937
84	FISSERVISBANK	8651110
85	National Reserve Bank	8557474
86	Soyuz	8320551
87	Surgutneftegazbank	7934867
88	Svyaznoy Bank	7541645
89	SUMMER BANK	7517221
90	Moscow Mortgage Agency	7446504
91	Metcombank	7280143
92	Kuban Credit	7216444
93	Expobank	7072251
94	Metalinvestbank	6945672
95	BNP Pariba	6927725
96	Celindbank	6852935
97	Chelyabinvestbank	6846837
98	UNIASTRUM BANK	6825478
99	SOVIET	6588398
100	Mercedes-Benz Bank Rus	6432118

Over the last month, two private Russian banks from the top 20 have fallen under the centralium sanation. The fact that with the bank "Opening" something was wrong, they spoke long before he was on the verge of closing. After the Central Bank agreed to save FC "Opening", as help to the regulator addressed. It is noteworthy that both of these credit institutions, as well as Promsvyazbank and the Moscow Credit Bank mentioned in the letter of the Alpha Capital. Analyst an organization in August declared their possible instability.

In the Central Bank, meanwhile, they assure: the effect of dominoes in the Russian banking sector is not worried. According to the deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Vasily Pozdysheva, after the letter of Alpha-Capital analytics, many banks have reduced the number of connections among themselves.

Someone realized that it was better to make a little more, so that the Domino effect did not occur, and according to the results of this work, the domino effect is excluded, there is no risk. If there was a review of the license, it would be possible to talk about the Domino effect, and the banking sector consolidation fund provides support from the point of view of liquidity, banks continue to work as usual.

The Deputy Chassis of the Central Bank stressed that until recently, cross-schemes were actively used by all banks, and not just FC "Opening", Binbank, ICD and Promsvyazbank.

How banks went along the way

In a situation with Binbank, the regulator uses the same scheme as in the first Sanation of FC "Opening": the Central Bank will become the main investor. The moratorium on the satisfaction of creditors 'claims is not introduced, the mechanism forced conversion of creditors' funds in stock (Bail-in) does not apply. This is the second case of a banking group's system forces by the Consolidation Fund of the Banking Sector, controlled by the Central Bank.

The meaning of a sanation is to enable the bank to continue its activities, but under the control of the Central Bank. The Central Bank will receive 75% of Binbank shares.

Binbank and "Opening" - Banks from the first twenty of the country's credit organizations in assets: On August 1, Binbank occupied the 12th place among Russian credit institutions in terms of assets with 1.2 trillion rubles, and FC "Opening" was on the 8th Place with assets 2.16 trillion rubles. The scenarios for which banks went to the reservation differ, but some unpleasant calls coincide.

Full outflow

As in the situation with the "discovery", in the summer of the Binbank began the outflow of funds of depositors. For August, the amount of deposits of the population decreased by 22.1 billion rubles. According to RIA "RATIONTING", BINBANK deposit portfolio as of July 1 amounted to 552.9 billion rubles.

The outflow of physical and legal entities from Binbank in September amounted to 56 billion rubles. A third of the outflows - individuals, first of all, those whose contributions exceeded the insured limit of 1.4 million rubles. According to preliminary estimates, the Central Bank, the need for the preparation of Binbank currently reaches 250-350 billion rubles.

For example: 105.8 billion rubles went out of the "discovery" in June. From corporate term deposits. 72.5% of funds took government structures. Against the background of negative information about the problems of the bank in July, investors took 617 billion rubles from it. The bank himself called the outflow "planned" and stressed that he prepared a liquidity pillow in advance.

Warning of problems

On August 16, Alfa-Capital Management Code sent letters to its customers with a message about the problems of four Russian banks, including the "discovery" and Binbank. Risks, according to representatives of the Company, primarily subjected to subordinated bonds, "which in the event of a sanation is likely to be written off completely."

That is, according to experts, it could cause the outflow of the funds of the Binbank depositors (customers began to take money from "discovery" significantly earlier - from May).

However, the management of the Alfa-Capital Management Company stated that it was only a personal point of view of a separate employee. And in immediately disunched on the opinion of the Alpha Capital manager and denied the information about the presence of problems at the "discovery", Binbank, Promsvyazbank and the ICD.

As the representatives of the two remaining "banks of the Moscow Ring" said, due to the sanation, the interests of Promsvyazbank and the ICD will not suffer. "The position of the Bank is stable, the bank performs all the standards of the Central Bank with a margin. The resource base remains well-diversified by the sources of capital attraction, "they told in Promsvyazbank.

Problem assets

Like FC "Opening", which lost 2.6 billion rubles. Because of the problems in the "Redemption" (the group was one of the bank's creditors), Binbank had great difficulties due to their own assets. Binbank's financial state of the Board of Directors, Michael Shishkhanov, explained to the business strategy, as well as the problems of the Sanka Bank and the affiliated MDM Bank.

Earlier, I did not calculate the business forces: the problems of the growth bank, taken to a sanation, and the MDM Bank turned out to be much more serious than expected in the conditions of the falling market and the current economic situation. And I fully divide the position of the Central Bank, one of whose most important tasks is to maintain stability in the Russian financial market.

Earlier, in an interview with RBC Shishkhanov also stated that he did not expect that the MDM bank would have such bad assets.

It is aggressive growth due to the acquisition of new assets, many experts are associated with the emergence of problems both at the "discovery" and Binbank.

Kirill Lukashuk, Senior Director of Analytical Credit Rating Agency:

Vasily Oleinik, Expert Investment Holding "Finam":

Four more signs that the bank has problems

Despite the fact that during a reservation, the clients of "discoveries" and Binbank will not suffer, tranquility of depositors such fluctuations in the banking market are not added. However, even before the revocation of the license, credit organizations look quite safely: they call new customers, advertise their services, deny the whole negative. Guess who will be the following is impossible. But for a few moments it is still worth paying attention to (however, it is not at all a guarantee that something happens to something with the bank).

Interruptions in the Bank's work, reducing the number of offices and frequent breakdowns

Everything looks rather innocent: because of some external causes or "enemies" failure in the bank's system. Translation of money freezes, ATMs cease to work, like Internet banking. The last two examples are "Ugra" and "Opening". In the first case, they explained all the technical failures, in the second - damage to the cable.

Turning off the bank from BESP

The system of banking electronic urgent payments (BESP) is used to carry out major urgent payments in rubles in real time throughout the country. In case of violation of the established requirements, the regulator may partially or fully limit the participant access to the BESP system. In most cases, this means that the regulator has a claim for its work. In rare cases, the disconnection from this system is a temporary caused by the technical failure.

High rates

Reliable banks will never offer you very high bets. Often, to attract new depositors, the problem bank raises rates. The average maximum rate of top 10 Russian banks on deposits of individuals in rubles for the third decade of August amounted to 7.33%. The Central Bank recommends that banks do not exceed the level of the average maximum rate of the top 10 of credit institutions by more than 3.5 PP.

Reduced rating

Reliability of banks assesses not only the Central Bank, but also independent Russian and foreign rating agencies. However, there's already a matter of taste - to trust such publications or not. But, for example, shortly before the Sanation "Opening", an analytical credit rating agency (acre) assigned to FC "Opening" Rating BBB- on a national scale with a stable forecast. The rating agency first assigned such a low ranking to a private system-forming jar.

Why Central Bank saves banks

After the announcement of the Sanation, it turned out that the owners of Binbank had long been negotiation with the Central Bank for the exit of the problem situation. The decision to ask the regulator about the reservation was made after the owners did not find funds for the preparation of their bank.

From the press release of Binbank:

Speaking of the reasons for the reasons of Binbank, the Deputy Chassis of the Central Bank Vasily Pozddyshev noted that, despite the fact that the Bank did not apply to the number of systemically significant Russian banks (such as "opening"), the total balance of bank banks represent a systemically significant group of credit institutions . Binbank is also included in the list of significant organizations in the payment services market.

Vasily Pozdyshev, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank:

Previously, the deputy chairman of the Central Bank Dmitry Tulin said that the model of doing business "hopeless and dangerous to society" is not left for the "Ugra" bank. And wait for the reviews of licenses in large, significant banks are not worth it.

The list of systemically significant banks includes ten major credit institutions, which total accounts for about 60% of the total assets of the Russian banking sector. This is "UniCredit Bank"; Bank GPB; VTB, Alfa Bank; Sberbank; FC "Opening"; ROSBANK; Promsvyazbank; JSC "Raiffeisenbank"; JSC "Rosselkhozbank".

The text used quotes from TASS, RBC, RIA Novosti, Kommersant-FM, Reuters

Why repurrent grows

The increase in the debt of banks on repos to the Central Bank in January immediately in the amount of about 30 billion rubles. - Nepipical situation in recent months. After the announcement of the Sanation of the Bank "FC Opening" with the participation of the Central Bank, the volume of expensive liquidity attracted by the Central Bank gradually decreased. In October, the average debt on repo with a fixed rate was 12.06 billion rubles, in November - 4.23 billion rubles, and in December - 2.31 billion rubles. At the same time, the maximum volume in December was 4.6 billion rubles, evidence of the data of the Central Bank.

Most players under the current environment makes no sense to attract funds for expensive repo operations with the Central Bank, market participants noted. "Now, banks have an oversufficient of ruble liquidity, especially for the short-term period, the proposal on the interbank exceeds the demand," Alexander Karpov, the head of the management of conversion and interbank operations of the Zenit Bank, notes. - The afternoon rates of the interbank market accounted for 7%, which is close to the minimum level offered by the Central Bank for one-day deposit operations of permanent action. The rates of attracting the Central Bank deposits from January 15 are set at 6.75%.

History of the question

The last time a sharp increase in debt on repo operations with the Central Bank was noted in July-August. Since July 11, the amount of repo debt has almost increased daily and by August 1 reached 404 billion rubles, and by August 31 reached the maximum value for 2017 - 767.2 billion rubles.

As it turned out later, almost all summer growth in debt was provided by the borrowing of the FC Opening Bank. Having received an ACRA rating at the BBV-level agency ranking in June, the Bank could not attract the funds of the federal budget and pension savings, experienced an outflow of funds from corporate and private clients and. In July and August, customers took more than 660 billion rubles from the bank. As a result, on August 29, the Central Bank announced the Sanation "FC Opening" on a new scheme with direct participation of the Central Bank as an investor and involving the funds of the Banking Sector Consolidation Fund (FKS).

Who could now hold on repo

One-time increase in the volume of debt to the Central Bank on Repo could be provided with one player, which is in dire need of liquidity, experts consider. "In general, the liquidity in the banking sector is significant, but individual players may experience a deficit," Alexander Danilov believes. "Most likely, we are talking about one player who has a need for liquidity, but there are no cheaper options for attracting, for example, it is closed or limits on the interbank are closed or already selected," Raiffeisenbank analyst Denis is treated.

Oscillations in the amount of debt could be associated with the attempts of the borrower to attract funds from alternative sources, for example, sell securities or other assets to pay off expensive debt to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. However, since the debt rose again, possibly due to the continued outflow of corporate client funds, the need for liquidity on the player is maintained and the same papers could be laid again, adds an analyst.

Banks reluctantly disclose data on their activity in the market of interbank lending, since usually the limits on the interbank are closed on the players whose financial position is suspicious, says the treasurer of one of the major banks. "In particular, this situation was in the summer and with the bank" FC discovery, "he reminds. - Already in September, after the announcement of the Sanation "FC Opening", banks began to restore the limits of his lending. About this, in particular,.

According to the analyst of Raiffeisenbank, to at the same time to attract about 30 billion rubles on repo. Could a bank with assets from 200 billion rubles. RBC sent requests to market participants with assets from 200 billion rubles. (37 banks) as to whether they attracted funds for this tool. In ten banks (VTB, UniCredit Bank, HomeCredit Bank, Zenit, Absolut Bank, Eastern, Novikombank, "Revival", Sovcombank, Svyaz-Bank) reported that they did not attract funds from the Central Bank on a fixed rate during the period from 9 to 12 January. "The Bank" Revival "did not attract the money of the Central Bank," Chairman of the Board of the Bank "Revival" said RBC, Mark Yakhmanovich. - On the contrary, at the specified period, the Bank placed free liquidity in the MBC market and repo in the amount of 7 billion to 10 billion rubles. daily". "Not attracted, as the tool is unfavorable," Chairman of the Board of PJSC "Sovcombank" said Dmitry Gusev, said RBC. - Periodically, we spend the tests about once a year that everything works, and take a small amount. The last time was attracted in the first quarter of 2017. " In the remaining 27 financial institutions did not respond to RBC request.

The regulator did not make statements that the rehabilitation of the banking sector was completed, resembles the senior director of the Acre Cyril Lukashuk. "There are players in the sector (and both small and relatively large), the financial stability of which causes many issues," he says. "Their further fate depends on the position of shareholders and how much they can listen to the recommendations of the Central Bank".

FC discovery ahead of time returned to the Bank of Russia provided at the end of August resources to support the bank. This was announced yesterday the head of the bank Mikhail Zadornov. In early February, the second tranche of funds in the amount of 180 billion rubles was returned. The first tranche, by 150 billion rubles, the bank returned at the end of last year. Thus, the bank could return the expensive resources to the regulator, continuing to use cheap tools.

The fact that the PC Opening Bank returned 180 billion rubles in February, he told "Kommersant" one of the VIP clients of the bank, who were present at a meeting with Mr. Zadornov. This information was confirmed in the bank. Thus, if we take into account 150 billion rubles., Which bank returned last year, the "discovery" returned almost half (46.5%) liquidity received from the regulator last year since the beginning of the retention.

According to "Kommersant", the head of the Bank "Otkunkey" by Mikhail Zadornov spent on Thursday a meeting with the largest clients of the bank's corporate and investment block. On it, he assured representatives of a large business in the stability of the Bank's work, and also spoke about the early return of almost half of the funds issued by the Bank of Russia shortly before entering the temporary administration. According to Mikhail Zadornov, "the bank is now not experiencing problems with liquidity." At the same time, he noted that "the growth of customer funds in December-February speaks of restoring customer confidence and increasing the financial stability of the bank." In particular, according to the bank's reporting, only for December 2017, customer funds increased by 90 billion rubles., Up to 719 billion rubles. According to the interlocutor, "Kommersant", it was important to obtain not only the statements of the Central Bank on the continuity of the FC discovery activities, but also the personal assurances of Mr. Zadornov.

Apparently, the early "FC discovery" returned the Bank of Russia with a relatively expensive liquidity, which he received at the initial stage of rejection. According to the bank's reporting, in August he received the Central Bank of 330 billion rubles. For a period of up to 180 days (see "Kommersant" of September 19). At the end of September, the Central Bank further issued a bank another 380 billion rubles, but for a period of up to three years. Thanks to such infringements, the bank ceased the practice of imprisonment of expensive repo transactions with the Central Bank (under 10% per annum).

At the same time, according to the Fitch agency, the average cost of the Otkunction Agency "FC" from the Central Bank of funds in the fourth quarter of 2017, i.e., in fact, two deposits, amounted to about 4% per annum. This indicator is almost two times lower than the rates of the interbank market (7.5-8.5% per annum). The Bank's desire to return 330 billion rubles ahead of time. It has economic meaning if this refinancing was expensive than average rate. It is possible that the Central Bank could provide a bank of 380 billion rubles. According to the standard in cases of a betting rate of 0.51% per annum, while an earlier and shortest deposit, at 330 billion rubles, at least 8% per annum rates. Thus, the bank could strive to get rid of expensive funds and leave almost free. In the bank "FC Opening" yesterday did not comment on the rates on which the Central Bank provided them with liquidity.

The younger director of the banking ratings "Expert RA" Ruslan Korshunov notes that these funds were posted in the "opening" to compensate for the outflows of Jurlitz funds that continued from June to November 2017. The bank, according to him, was able to return liquidity after stabilizing the passive base and the influx of Yurlitz funds in December (an increase of 21%). Senior Director for Financial Institutions Fitch Alexander Danilov, who also noted that "the Central Bank flooded the bank with margins in case of continuation of the outflows."

Vitaly Soldatsky

"This is a mockery": UniCredit started blocking salary maps of customers

The Bank with foreign capital UniCredit began blocking maps of individuals.

About this "Observer" reported one of the customers of the bank.

"From March 22, my card for a salary project is blocked. On it 7 283 hryvnia 53 kopecks: I can't buy bread, I'll pay for an apartment," he complained.

According to him, to unlock the card, the bank asks not to just pass identification, but illegally requires to provide a declaration.

"Maybe they still give the keys to the apartment? I do not understand: this is a salary project, I am an individual, what is the declaration? I do not really explain anything, you refuse to unlock the card, return money too. I am serviced in this bank for several years, but I see it. For the first time: To without warning and explanations ... This is a mockery, "the UniCredit client stressed.

On the question of the "observer" about the possible reasons for such actions, the financial institutions, he suggested that the Bank had problems with liquidity. "Perhaps they simply ended money, and they are trying to solve their questions at the expense of customers, including me," the UniCredit client expressed the opinion.

Reviewer

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