Frozen deposits of Sberbank. Can they freeze deposits? How protected contributions in Russian banks? How to save your money - deposits or stockings

The restriction on cash issuance is quite an extreme measure in relation to its population. For the last 2 times in the history of Russia, this was from 1941 to 1944 and in 1991. In 91st, some estimates, citizens lost $ 600 billion, that even without taking into account inflation and the denomination of 1998 in the current rubles is 46 trillion. or 3 budget of Russia. The current amount, by the volume of almost 23 trillion. rubles stored by the population in deposits in conditions also becomes a lounge piece. However, the probability of freezing deposits in 2016, although it is different from zero, but not great. Why?

• With the current rate of spending of budgetary funds, the money of the reserve and national welfare fund at least 2 years. At the same time it is planned to carry out some, and long-term will look for support above the current levels. So there is still a cash pillow.
• Do not forget about the autumn elections. It seems that "freezing" along with the already occurred 2-fold impairment of the national currency will not add optimism to voters, and the voting in this case can present surprises. Although, provided that 2/3 of Russians do not have any accumulation, the space for maneuver remains here.
• In general, talking about the inability to fulfill ruble obligations inside the country is quite naive. Choosing between the internal default, the "freezing" of deposits and inflation through the inclusion of the "printing machine", the state with a high probability will choose the latter. That is, the problem of ruble debts is sufficiently conditional - there is always a state to solve it. Another case deposits currency.

And what about currency deposits?

Dollars and euro cannot be printed in contrast. The share of currency deposits in the overall structure is 30%, in dollar equivalent - $ 90 billion. Which in itself is not a critical amount - it is comparable. However, even if the influx of currency depositors in banks will happen and becomes a problem, you can resort to the scheme of forced conversion currency in rubles at the current CBA rate, as it happens with foreign exchange deposits in the event of a bank license. And as we have already noted, rubles in emergency cases - not such a big problem for the government.

The reserve also has a so-called "Cyprus version", when the obligations of banks before depositors can be forced to convert into stocks or long-term bonds. The introduction of such a mechanism for large (from 100 million rubles) of depositors is discussed in the Ministry of Finance.

In which case can still freeze?

Deposits may briefly freeze or limit amounts to issuance in the case of panic among depositors. Usually it takes several factors as in December 2014. Then, after a night increase of the Central Bank of the key rate by 6.5%, the euro and dollar courses rose throughout the day to 23%. On the background of panic in some

I am writing this text in the evening on Monday, March 17, 2014 the first sanctions Adopted, they are directed against Russian and Ukrainian politicians. But this is just the beginning. Since the Ukrainian crisis may continue for a long time, may be followed by other actions of Russia, which US + EU will not like, and we can expect the escalation of the crisis, as well as the introduction of new sanctions.

Formulation of the problem

In this situation, Russian representatives middle class You need to think how to set up your finances on the crisis. For citizens of other countries, apparently, these reflections will not be relevant, at least as long as. And there - who knows. It is necessary to configure it is not only for sanctions, but also for the crisis, since the sanctions themselves may not be directed to the middle class, but provoke a crisis that will hit the average class. I do not take accurately predict exactly how events will develop, but I think that at such a moment, as now, you need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. So what is the "worst"?

I think that the worst layout will be the arrest and confiscation of all Russian assets in the US + EU + in the countries of political allies of the United States and the EU (in Switzerland, for example). It may mean that funds are confiscated in bank accounts, securities, real estate, other property and assets of all Russians, and not just politicians. And not only physicals, but also legal entities (and state-owned companies, and private), and even the Russian state. This is my scenario called Apocalypse. I do not even want to think, for how many percent it is possible, and under what sobs, and what we will answer. Just this is the worst alignment in my understanding.

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Can currency deposits give a surprise? Can, and more like. In this column I will explain why foreign currency deposits are more dangerous ruble.

Ruble-downshifter rapidly dives down after falling oil. And the price of oil from northern Dakota and even dropped below zero. Edak will soon be the prophecy attributed to Saltykov-generous: "It is still nothing that in Europe for our ruble give one festive, it will be worse if for our ruble will be given to the muzzle." Plus, sanctions are not helping to strengthen wood.

Budget revenues substantially consisting of oil and gas revenues are falling. The growing budget deficit must somehow finance. You can, of course, raise taxes, cut the costs, sell property, not yet stolen. But the growth of taxes and reducing spending on social articles is fraught with a social explosion. And large-scale privatization, as nor paradoxically, is possible only at the expense of the budget. Therefore, the state will have to raques in the pockets of the depositors, in which about 22 trillion rubles were poured. For comparison: Russia's GDP in 2014 amounted to 71.4 trillion rubles.

People are more expensive to be shued at higher percentages of ruble deposits and prefer their foreign exchange deposits. But, as we know, on each tricky investor there is a screw thread screw. In fact, currency deposits in an unstable developing economy are more dangerous than deposits in national currency. Because in addition to frost, which is applicable to both deposits in national currency and currency deposits, a specific ambush is also possible: the forced conversion of currency deposits into deposits in the national currency at the rate is very far from the market.

We have already passed the freezing of deposits. On freezing deposits in the USSR during the Great Patriotic War, you can read in my column "War and deposits" on banks.ru. But the forced conversion of deposits has not yet been. There are examples only from foreign practice. So, in January 2002, in Argentina, dollar deposits were forcibly converted into deposits in Peso at the official rate of 1.4 per dollar, despite all deposits, and in currency, and in the peso were frozen. On June 25, 2002, the course fell to the level of 3.86 pesos for the dollar. "Fallen" all depositors, but currency - especially.

Does the state incentives have forced to convert foreign currency deposits? Of course, there is. Firstly, this conversion will mean a sharp decline in banks' liabilities, including state. Secondly, in the conditions of the depositors raid for banks, currency depositors are especially dangerous for the state: canopy currency deposits may collapse into the economy, because in conditions of a sharp reduction in exporting currency to calculate with currency deposits, banks will ultimately be taken from international reserves of the Central Bank. And they are already pretty empty: August 8, 2008, the foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation reached a historic maximum of $ 598.1 billion, and as of January 8, 2016, they decreased to $ 368.1 billion. Ruble depositors are not so dangerous for financial stability - rubles for calculation with them can be printed.

What kind of pressure on international reserves can we talk about? The amount of currency deposits in Russian banks as of December 1, 2015 amounted to 6.1 trillion rubles, or $ 91.8 billion.

Of course, the "soft" expropriation can cause a perturbation of robbed depositors, which is hardly necessary before the elections. But this expropriation will be adopted calmly if it becomes a reaction to some regular military conflict. For example, with Turkey.

Are you owner of savings in dollars or euros? In this case, you will probably be interested in the question of what will be in Russia with foreign exchange contributions, will it be profitable for them to issue them, are the new laws toughening them? All this is further in our article.

Currency deposits today

According to data that transmit leading banking companies in our country, at the beginning of 2017, increased activity among investors who had accumulated in foreign currency were noted. It was explained by the fact that many of them issued deposits in 2016 under favorable conditions, and now it's time to either close the contract, or to prolong it.

If, with the closure of the account, everything is clear - you get your initially embedded amount + interest on pre-agreed conditions, then everything is not so smooth with prolongation.

Recall that this concept means the extension of the contribution to the current conditions for it, and if there is no more such program in the bank, the extension is carried out under the conditions of the product "to demand".

What does the extension on topical conditions mean? This means that the period of action of your deposit, the amount deposited + income, the frequency of charges and additional options remain unchanged, but the percentage will be changed to the one that the Bank offers at the time of prolongation.

And it is for this reason that many citizens prefer to close the account at all, and send money to the purchase, for example, to acquire a tour to rest than to extend it under unprofitable conditions for themselves.

What will happen in our country with deposits in foreign currency?

It is clear that if the Russians begin to actively invest, and then they will increase them with the help of a deposit, then it negatively develops on the stability of the ruble and its course.

It is for this reason that banks seek to minimize interest rates on currency programs to reduce their attractiveness for consumers.

The press often sound different "horror stories", for example, that such contributions want to prohibit at all, or appoint an increased, or forcibly making conversion in rubles. We are in a hurry to calm you - all this is only the proposals of some deputies who have no legal force.

Conversion of your savings in rubles is really possible, but only if the bank, where you serve, will lose its license.

Is it worth issuing similar contributions now?

Experts and analysts agree that now is not the most favorable time in order to invest in foreign currency. The ruble exchange rate gradually increases, it is strengthened towards other world currencies, banks offer interest all below with each month.

However, if it is important for you to keep your accumulations in a bank organization, then we can offer you some options. When choosing, focus not only on the terms of the program, but also on the reliability of the company.

For investment in US dollars, you should contact:

• UniCredit Bank - rate up to 3%,
• Bank "St. Petersburg" - up to 2.7%,
• NS Bank - up to 2.6%,
• BINBANK, SMP Bank, Russian International Bank - up to 2.5%,
• Globeks Bank - up to 2.25%.

For savings in euros:

• BBD Bank - up to 1.8%,
• Lightbank - up to 1.75%,
• Russian International Bank - up to 1.5%,
• Eastern Express Bank - up to 1.45%,
• Ubrir - up to 1.3% per annum.

Thus, according to experts, in 2019, Russia will continue to reduce foreign exchange deposits, so it is better to find other directions to invest money.

One beautiful morning began with a clearly conscious sensation of the impending event of a serious scale. Sharp and lump-sum change of the rules of the game. In my professional region, of course. Moreover, much more serious than the expected collapse of the stock market or further devaluation. It has already become the usual thing to which it is bad, poorly adapted, defended to the measure of the Forces and live with it.

In short, it was clear how day: We are waiting for surprises, extremely unpleasant, and very soon. Those who wish to make fun of Wanga may stop here and go right away in the comment. Immediately warn you: this is a premonition of a completely sober head.

For the rest - the result of reasoning.

As a person is extremely rational, such intuitive things are extremely discomfort, so I had to build a tree of options, otherwise you will become paranoid. Raise numbers trying to bind them among themselves.

I think that the only event in the financial field, which has a global effect within the country, can only be something from the banking sector. In politics now, too, a lot of things will happen (no matter, in external or in the inner). Something will affect finance, something is not, but it will be left behind the brackets.

The mass effect here is possible only from events with deposits and (or) cash circulation and in no way. Ready to listen to other options and discuss them later, but here I will render the justification of the option that I have in the first place in probability for the implementation. The rest is a restriction on cash, on transboundary translations, further descending.

So, list:

The Central Bank announced that she would roll out a list of 50-60 systemically significant credit institutions. You can discuss idiocy of this step later, but the most obvious consequence - after a small time, the rest of the banks will simply die with depositors and customers. And the deadlines are not important here.

In total in the country 854 banks.

According to statistics for the 1st half of 2013, 41% of deposits exceed the insured level of 700 thousand rubles.

The volume of contributions of the population almost reached 17 trillion rubles last year.

The concentration of deposits in Top-30 banks is almost 79%, and in potential top 60 - at least 85-88%.

According to the results of cleaning 2013-2014. Private depositors lost 51.9 billion rubles that are not covered by insurance deposits. The business suffered a loss in the bunting banks by 81 billion. The numbers are not yet proven, you can not take into account if you wish, but I personally trust them with source.

The size of the QAP Foundation is about 160 billion rubles. You can dig a specific number, but it is also clear that almost all deposits are issued by loans, the rest is in the cash desks of banks or on the corschets in the Central Bank. In other words, in the bank physically your contributions has long been no longer. I believe that by 45-60% these are consumer and corporate loans, 10-15% of the bond, 10-15% of the cashier and the corschet (instant liquidity), and so, on the little things. Bankers can suggest specifics.

We simulate.

The economy continues to fall as the banking sector continues. Relicked out a list of top 60 banks. This means that approximately 17 trillion * (100% - 85%) \u003d 2.5 trillion will be in "non-system" banks, the number of which is almost 800. Of these "non-system" deposits of approximately 2.5 trillion * 41% \u003d 1 trillion exceed Level of 700,000 rubles. Given that on the results of purification, only a couple of dozen banks in 2013-2014. The unbalanced losses of depositors are more than 50 billion rubles, the massive movement of the money output will supply hundreds of billions not covered with insurance. The size of the DC is 160 billion.

And I ask you not to forget about billions of business on current accounts in such banks. I suspect that 40-50% of such money - under salaries and 15-20% - for taxes. That is, even those who can not have deposits in banks at all will suffer, as well as the budget. Although there is a discussion question, judging only in several familiar entrepreneurs who fell on "".

Today there is no or me is not aware of the mechanism for the preparation of QA budget money. In principle, it is possible how we all know, take any law within two days. But with that voltage that is today in the budget, no one has a special desire to hang such gigantic additional expenses for the treasury.

Therefore, just as it was with the devaluation, there are many interesting things to freeze deposits, ranging from the budget and ending with large banking structures that have long wanted to have irrevocable deposits (which naturally). And almost no one, except for the population, of course, who is against. But if with almost man-made devaluation they spit on it, then it is possible. Especially since, according to the VTI, the president has an extremely high rating, that is, the political component is present. A person with such a rating can be cordially asking for a couple of months to wait, understand, forgive, and all the humble. And the fact that there is nothing more constant than temporary, we know.

A piece of 500 billion dollars in the accounts of citizens can be turned into a permanent resource. Moreover, according to polls, 55-60% of citizens quite agree with the Soviet economic model and, apparently, this is just the majority of those 75-80% of the population, which does not have savings at all. So morally ready for any restrictions at least in politics, even in the economy. The remaining 20-25% of the "beneficiaries" of the monetary reform will touch and humble. I believe that if the script does not die with hunger, will be allowed to issue 20-50 thousand times a month. Well, or will be introduced the limit on the calculation of the cards.

Now, when there is no need to pretend and build a mythical financial center, when it is strongly pressing outside, there are practically no restrictions in the internal financial policy. Up to the physical seizure of precious metals (as Roosevelt in the United States at the Great Depression), cash, especially in the currency. Those who remember the monetary reform on Pavlov and freezing on Gaidar will understand. I repeat again: no restrictions of a repressive nature.

The condition is only one thing: to maximize the effect of taking measures of this kind and scale, they must be as as sudden as possible. Honestly, it is more convenient than now, I do not see.