Imperfect random molodin. "(No) committed accident. As a case manages our life, "Leonard Molodinins. Prologue. How the case manages our life

In the book "(no) committed accident. As a case manages our lives, .
This book is a great way to shine ancient and refresh in memory of something from the course of higher mathematics, the history of natural science knowledge, astronomy and statistics for those who studied these wonderful disciplines in universities; The presented the basics of the theory of probability and its applicability in everyday circumstances (with numerous examples) for those who did not intend to study them especially were also understood. Finally, a professional and friendly prompt ricking granite relevant sciences at the moment.

Under a magnifying chance.
I remember how a teenager during Shabbat I looked into the yellow flame languages \u200b\u200b- they were randomly dancing over white cylinders of paraffin candles. I was too small to think about some kind of romance for candles, but still the flame fascinated - his flicker gave birth to all sorts of bizarre images. The images moved, merged, grew and decreased, and all this happened without an obvious reason or a plan there. Of course, I suspected the basis of the movements of the flame of some rhythm, the plan, a certain model, which scientists are able to predict and explain with the help of mathematics. "Life is quite different," the father told me. - It happens, it happens that it is not possible to predict. "

Father told me about those times when sitting in Buchenwald, a Nazi concentration camp. Prisoners held the injignment; Once the father stole a loaf of bread from the bakery. At the insistence of the baker, the gestapovtsy gathered all who could commit such a crime, putting in a row. "Who stole bread?" - asked the baker. No one admitted, and then the baker told the guards to shoot one after another - until they were shooting anyone or until someone is confessed.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Prologue
chapter 1 under the Magnifying Accident
The secret role of the case.
What is the cat's rattle rat.
chapter 2 Laws of Truth and Half
Basic principles of probability and cases of their improper use
Why a truthful story is often less believable than fiction.
chapter 3 Dreaming Through Pebra Probability
Basics for thinking about random situations. From the player in the rough italy before "what we argue?".
chapter 4 Locking the Way to Success
How to calculate the number of output methods and why it matters.
The meaning of waiting in mathematics.
chapter 5 Confrontation of the Laws of Large and Small Numbers
The degree of reflection of probabilities in the results we observe.
Paradox of Zenon, the concept of limits and the defeat of the casino.
chapter 6 False positivity and positive falsity
How to calculate expectations in the light of events that occurred or new information. Errors in the conditional probability: from the sample to identify the hidden form of the disease to trial over O. J. Simpson and the "accusation errors"
chapter 7 Measurement and Error Distribution Law
The meaning and lack of meaning in measurements. Bell-shaped curve and assessment of wines, political polls, school marks and the movement of the planets.
chapter 8 Ordered Chaos
As large numbers are able to level random chaotic, or as out of 200 million drivers, a single organism is obtained with its habit.
chapter 9 Illusion of patterns and pattern of illusions
Why regularities in random events are often imposed on misleading.
Is it possible that a million of the following zeros or the success of the financial guru with Wall Street was random?
chapter 10 Launcher Drunk
Why theory of chance is more fundamental than the theory of conditionality.
Bruce Willis, Bill Gates and the theory of "Normal Accidents".
Thanks
Notes
Pointer.

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(No) Perfect Accident. How the case manages our life

Dedicated to three wonders of chance:

Olivia, Nikolai and Alexey ...

as well as Sabine Yakubovich

How the case manages our life

A few years ago, one Spaniard won into the national lottery; His ticket number ended with a number 48. By his "achievement", the Spaniard told how he managed to get rich. "Seven nights in a row I dreamed of a seven," he said, "and the family seven and there are forty-eight." Those who better remember the multiplication table, which is grinning: Spaniard was wrong, but everyone has their own vision of the world, through which we skip our sensations, process them, leaning the meaning from the ocean information in everyday life. And while often mistaken, and our mistakes, even if not so obvious, like this Spaniard, are no less significant.

The target in the situation of uncertainty from intuition was small, it was known in the 1930s: the researchers noticed that people were neither to build a sequence of numbers that approached for mathematical criteria of randomness nor to say if there were a number of numbers Chose randomly. Over the past decades, a new scientific discipline arose, which studies the formation of judgments in a person, accepting solutions in conditions of incomplete, insufficient information. Studies have shown: where the case concerns the case, the thinking process of a person gives off. The most different branches of knowledge were involved: from mathematics to traditional sciences, from cognitive psychology before the behavior economy and modern neurobiology. But although recently research results and were noted by the Nobel Prize (in the economy), as a whole, they did not become a public domain, did not go beyond the scope of academic circles. This book is an attempt to correct the situation. It will be discussed in principles that underlie the accident, about their development, how they affect politics, business, medicine, economics, sports, leisure and other areas of our life. In addition, the book states how it is a person who makes his choice, processes that force a person in a situation of chance or uncertainty to come to erroneous judgment and take stupid solutions on its basis.

Data failure involuntarily generates contradictory explanations. That is why it was not easy to confirm the fact of global warming, it was for this reason that drugs, it happens, first declare safe, and then declare out of the game, and most likely, it is because of this not everyone will agree with my observation: chocolate-milkshakes - An integral part of the strengthening heart diet. Unfortunately, the false interpretation of data leads to numerous negative consequences, both large and small. For example, both doctors and patients often incorrectly perceive statistical data on the effectiveness of drugs and the importance of medical tests. Parents, teachers and students incorrectly assess the importance of exams as something like checking the ability to learn, and tastors, evaluating wine, make the same mistakes. Investors based on the indicators of mutual investment funds for a certain period come to incorrect conclusions.

In the world of sports, the conviction based on intuitive customer experience is widespread: the victory or defeat of the team for the most part depends on the professional qualities of the coach. As a result, after losing the team, the coach often fired. However, the results of a recent mathematical analysis suggest that, in general, these dismissal of the game does not affect the character of the game - minor improvements achieved by changing coaches are usually overlapped with a random nature of changes in the game of individual players and the entire team. The same thing happens in the world of corporations: it is believed that the Director-General has superhuman abilities, can create or destroy the company, but on the example of such companies as "Kodak", "Lysen", "Xerox", again and again convince - the power of deceptive . In the 1990s. Gary Wendt was considered one of the most successful business people, he ruled "General Electric Capital", headed by Jack Welch. When Venndata took the company's serious financial position in Conseco, he requested $ 45 million, heaving on his reputation. During the year, the company's shares have grown three times - investors were full of optimism. Two years later, Venndt suddenly quit, "CONSECO" went bankrupt, the shares were made for a snot. What, Venndt got an easy task? Maybe he lost interest in the case, suddenly caught fire with a desire to become the first among bowling professionals? Or Vennda crowned, based on dubious assumptions? Based, for example, on the fact that the managerial has almost absolute abilities to influence the company. Or that a single success in the past serves as a reliable guarantee of achievements in the future. Anyway, it is impossible to give unequivocal answers to these questions, do not own the situation. I will come back to this example, and that much more important, I will tell you about what is necessary to recognize the signs of accident.

It is not easy to sail against the flow of human intuition. We also make sure that the human mind is arranged in a certain way - for each event, it is looking for a completely definite reason. And it is difficult for him to take into account the influence of factors not correlated or random. Thus, the first step is the realization that the success or failure is sometimes the result of not exceptional abilities or their complete absence, but, as the economist Armen Alchian, "random circumstances" expressed. And although random processes underlie the device of nature and wherever they are found, most people do not understand them and simply does not give them importance.

The name of the last chapter of the book, "walking drunk," comes from the mathematical term describing random trajectories, for example, the spatial movement of molecules, increablely encountered with its fellows. This is a peculiar metaphor of our life, our college path up the career ladder, from the bachelor's life to the family, from the first well on the golf course to nineteenth. It is surprising that this metaphor is applicable to mathematics - mathematics of random wandering and methods for its analysis can be useful in everyday life. My task is to shed light on the role of the case in the world around us, demonstrate how to recognize its action to deeper to penetrate the essence of being. I hope that after this trip to the world of accidents, the reader will see life in the new light, it will better understand it.

Chapter 1. Under the Magnifying Accident

I remember how a teenager during Shabbat I looked into the yellow flame languages \u200b\u200b- they were randomly dancing over white cylinders of paraffin candles. I was too small to think about some kind of romance for candles, but still the flame fascinated - his flicker gave birth to all sorts of bizarre images. The images moved, merged, grew and decreased, and all this happened without an obvious reason or a plan there. Of course, I suspected the basis of the movements of the flame of some rhythm, the plan, a certain model, which scientists are able to predict and explain with the help of mathematics. "Life is quite different," the father told me. - It happens, it happens that it is not possible to predict. " Father told me about those times when sitting in Buchenwald, a Nazi concentration camp. Prisoners held the injignment; Once the father stole a loaf of bread from the bakery. At the insistence of the baker, the gestapovtsy gathered all who could commit such a crime, putting in a row. "Who stole bread?" - asked the baker. Nobody admitted, and then the baker told the guards so that they were shot alone by one - until they were shooting all or

(No) Perfect Accident. How the case manages our life Leonard Molodinov

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Title: (No) Perfect Accident. How the case manages our life

About the book "(no) committed accident. How the case rules our life, "Leonard Molodinov

In the book "(no) committed accident. As a case manages our lives, .

This book is a great way to shine ancient and refresh in memory of something from the course of higher mathematics, the history of natural science knowledge, astronomy and statistics for those who studied these wonderful disciplines in universities; The presented the basics of the theory of probability and its applicability in everyday circumstances (with numerous examples) for those who did not intend to study them especially were also understood. Finally, a professional and friendly prompt ricking granite relevant sciences at the moment.

On our site about books Website you can download free without registration or read the online book "(no) committed accident. As a case manages our life, "Leonard Molodinov in Epub, FB2, TXT, RTF, PDF formats for iPad, iPhone, Android and Kindle. The book will give you a lot of pleasant moments and the true pleasure of reading. You can buy the full version from our partner. Also, we will find the latest news from the literary world, find out the biography of your favorite authors. For beginner writers there is a separate section with useful advice and recommendations, interesting articles, thanks to which you yourself will be able to try your hand in literary skills.

Quotes from the book "(no) committed accident. How the case rules our life, "Leonard Molodinov

Fascinating occupation of probabilistic prediction.

Theories of "Normal Accidents".

Historians-traditionalist and historians-socialists.

The main idea of \u200b\u200bthis book is what we see, what we are aware of what is in reality is three, completely different things. Our senses do not allow us to see most of the reality, and our brain is a slight movement of thought cut off everything else.

We simply cannot realize all the greatness of this world. Even more is everything that we are now armed with a scientific point of view - all this is also not able to help us in this awareness.

Take at least chance. It seems that there is a whole science that studies them is a huge mathematical apparatus, there are computers capable of all this apparatus to apply. But still, the average person is capable only to think the categories "the likelihood of 50%, it either happens or not." And from this most problems in this middle person and humanity in general.

We often underestimate or overestimate the role of chance in our lives. Just can not think abstrants. Well, our brain does not work in a similar coordinate system. He can't answer the question: "How the likelihood that the second child in the family of two children will change is a girl if we know that the name of one of the girls is Philadelphia." He can not even realize the question. Our intuition suggests that no payload is no additional information about the name. But in fact - it is, this load is, and it strongly changes the probabilities.

And on the basis of these simplifications and misunderstandings, we draw our picture of the world. The world in which, as we consider, the likelihood of throwing a hundred eagles in a row is much higher than becoming a famous writer. This book is capable of to dispel the fog over this issue. Not finally, of course, but at least partially, to the extent necessary for awareness, how much knowledge is imperfect.

The whole book consists of small excursions in the story of how probability was studied and this science was developed. Talk about scientists and just random people standing at the origins of probability theory. They are not given too complicated, even somewhere banal calculations (enough school courses of mathematics). Understanding simple paradoxes (like "Monti Hall" or "birthdays in the room"). Well, so as not to lose topicality, try to show us the use of probability theory in the real world.

Do you think Bruce Willis has achieved his glory only thanks to his talent? And Bill Gates went from a simple programmer to a millionaire, using only his mind? No, nothing like that. They all helped the case in one way or another. The case is actively ruled in our world that we prefer to ignore its influence on our lives. We believe that we can control your life. Now think again - how many times in an hour, he intervened in your decisions. Here you have worried about the elbow, and you were distracted from reading, it means that they lost a couple of seconds, and this couple will not have enough seconds to get out on time, and you are late for the bus and do not have time for an interview. That's so unnoticed, one small event caused such a reaction.

It is clear that this thought is not new, there are already many books written on this topic. And on the story of the formation of science, and the introductions to the theory of probabilities and the problems of the awareness of these events. But only they are given in different books, and here everything is assembled under one cover. The reader is introduced into the whole of this problem, slowly miley. That is, from the point of popularization of this point of view and science as a whole - everything is fine here. It is clear that if you have already read these books, you probably won't find anything new here, and even in some places you will miss many details that did not enter this book.

The book was able to introduce into science on probabilities, as an illustration of how accidentally affect us, about the problems of the perception of the world and as grain of common sense. But for those who already know anything about this or conceived - I think there will be nothing new here.

In the book "(no) committed accident. As a case manages our lives, .

On our site you can download the book "(no) Perfect Accident. As the case manages our lives," Leonard melodinov free and without registration in FB2 format, RTF, EPUB, PDF, TXT, read the book online or buy a book in the online store.