Third world war apocalypse. Ten signs of the approach of the third world war. Possible outcome of the clash between the United States and Russia
Russia is not going to be the first to use nuclear weapons and will not initiate a global catastrophe, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.
He explained that the Russian concept of using this type of WMD does not provide for a preventive strike, only a response to an attack is possible. And it will all end in mutual destruction.
The issue of nuclear weapons is once again becoming topical with the growing tension around the world. The possibility of a preemptive strike was allowed in the Pentagon, however, with the stipulation that they would go for it only if they were firmly convinced that a strike against the United States was inevitable.
In the spring, they seriously discussed a possible attack on the DPRK - in response to threats from the North Korean leader.
And experts are discussing when the Third World War will begin and whether any of the potential participants will go for the suicidal use of nuclear weapons.
USA: Donald Trump is at war on Twitter
The belligerent tweets of the president of the most powerful state in the world at the moment have long been the talk of the tongue. Trump won the presidential race, among other things, thanks to the manner of saying what he thinks that has won over many, even if this is far from the standards accepted in politics. For example, why can't America use nuclear weapons if it has them?
Having become head of state, Trump did not abandon this manner, so sometimes there are calls to take away the account from the US president - or rather, the nuclear button.
In April of this year, a tweet in which Trump urged Russia to prepare for the arrival of “good, new and smart” missiles in Syria and accused it of supporting a “killer animal”, that is, Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, made the whole world afraid of the start of World War III.
The president himself, it seems, did not expect such a reaction at all. Less than an hour later, he published a completely different post in which he wondered why relations with Russia are now worse than during the Cold War, because there is essentially no reason for this.
The Kremlin reacted briefly to a question about Trump's tweets - they say, we are not for Twitter diplomacy, but for a serious approach. The clashes between American and Russian troops in Syria, which everyone feared, did not happen again.
North Korean leader: smarter than you think
Russia is a long-time adversary of the United States, and relations between the countries are really tense right now. However, the idea of a preventive nuclear strike at the Pentagon arose for a completely different reason: the US military was alerted by the threats of the leaders of the DPRK, whose rhetoric has become completely belligerent.
A small country in the north of the Korean Peninsula was engaged in the development of nuclear weapons, which did not suit the members of the so-called "nuclear club", that is, countries that already possess WMD. Sanctions were imposed against the DPRK, but this did not bother the leaders of the state.
A sharp aggravation of relations, called the August crisis, occurred last year. The head of the DPRK, Kim Jong-un, even threatened to launch a nuclear strike on the US air base on the island of Guam. The forces of the tiny Asian state and the United States, it would seem, are incomparable, but the DPRK, in the event of an armed conflict, could cause serious damage to its neighbors, South Korea and Japan. So the war had to be avoided.
Trump, of course, could not stand the threats of the North Korean leader and averted his soul on Twitter. The apotheosis was the exchange of "New Year's greetings": the leader of the DPRK, addressing the nation, said that he always kept the nuclear button at hand so that the United States could not start a war. Trump replied on the same Twitter that his button is bigger and it works.
As a result, both opponents turned out to be more reasonable than it seemed from their statements. Not without difficulty, efforts and difficulties on both sides, the crisis in relations was overcome, the leaders of the United States and the DPRK met in Singapore for the first time in history and even reached an agreement that the DPRK would denuclearize the Korean Peninsula if the United States provided security guarantees. True, the document does not contain any specifics, and many analysts said that Kim Jong-un outplayed his overseas counterpart. But war on the Korean Peninsula was avoided.
Russia: retribution is inevitable
In February of this year, the United States promulgated a new nuclear doctrine, which provides for the modernization of nuclear weapons and the development of their low-yield types.
It names Russia, China, North Korea and Iran as potential adversaries. Unlike small North Korea and relatively small Iran, Russia, as the successor to the USSR, is a longtime geopolitical rival of the United States. It was these two countries that became the first and main owners of terrifying weapons of mass destruction, capable of destroying any potential enemy - and at the same time the planet.
In 1987, after Soviet Secretary General Mikhail Gorbachev and US President Ronald Reagan signed an agreement on the elimination of intermediate and shorter-range nuclear missiles (INF). Massive disarmament continued for 30 years. However, now many experts fear that a new arms race has begun, and they are calculating which side has the advantage.
Some analysts believe that Vladimir Putin's famous speech in March with a message to the Federal Assembly, in which he spoke about new types of weapons for the Russian army, was a response to the updated US nuclear doctrine. And Trump's tweet about "smart missiles", in turn, was a response to Putin's speech.
At a meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, the Russian leader recalled that Russia did not intend to be the first to use nuclear weapons, but that a strike would be answered. To make sure that the attack has taken place, modern systems of early warning of a missile attack will help, which can detect the launch of missiles in any territory within a few seconds, as well as determine the flight path and the places where the warheads fall.
“The aggressor must know that retribution is inevitable, that he will be destroyed. And we, the victims of aggression, we, as martyrs, will go to heaven, and they will simply die, because they won’t even have time to repent,” the president summed up emotionally, assuring that Russia would not be the initiator of a “global catastrophe.”
Apocalypse in 40 minutes
The political situation in the world is becoming more and more tense, and experts and journalists are increasingly talking about the Third World War.
Some people think that it is already underway, others do not rule out that the conflict will begin in the near future. The most likely opponents are the United States on the one hand and Russia and China on the other. Some even believe that it is worth waiting for a clash between the US and China, but in this case, Russia, as an ally of China, is unlikely to be able to stay out of the fight.
Analysts see the future war in different ways, most often mentioning a hybrid war, in which the main role is played not so much by direct hostilities as by political and economic pressure and non-military attacks, such as electronic and information.
Opinions are expressed very different, but the vast majority of experts agree on one thing - there will be no "classic" nuclear war between Russia and the United States. According to calculations, the exchange of nuclear strikes will last 40 minutes and end with the death of mankind. And hardly any of the politicians will take such a suicidal step.
It would seem that even children understand that if it starts, then it will most likely be conducted with the application. So, this is the same apocalypse, which is so often, but the apocalypse is man-made. However, when looking at world news feeds, one gets the impression that there are people more than influential who are interested in the beginning.
Why is it so?
It seems that the reason, as always, is in human stupidity and arrogance. Each of the parties hopes that the opponents will retreat, they will be afraid of the aggravation of the confrontation, which means that it will be possible to get additional advantages. For example, the Caribbean crisis. But, there were local, and today, the fronts on which the Third World War is already underway, although not yet manifested, are many, and even the threat of Islamic terrorism, which can strike anywhere.
All these factors make the transition of the confrontation into a hot, one might even say uncontrollable phase, not only possible, but very likely.
It is high time for those who determine world politics to understand that playing with fire is a dangerous occupation, and if this fire is the Third World War, the danger increases millions of times. There is a dangerous misconception that World War 3 can be fought without the use of . This opinion is argued by the fact that reasonable people will not destroy a civilization that already has problems through the roof. But all these arguments are broken by one counterargument - reasonable people, they would not start a third world war. And since this misfortune has happened, it will not be long before the use of atomic weapons, even if at first local, tactical.
Where does such confidence come from - you ask, but everything, in general, is simple. This is before the start of the war, you can give in, give up some positions in order to find a compromise that will suit, if not many, then at least the majority of players. And with the start of World War 3, retreat will be equated with defeat, and therefore, in this war, all means, including nuclear weapons, will be acceptable. And so, on one of the sections of the front, a local one is applied, the enemy responds with an adequate blow and Armageddon begins, but not mythical, biblical, but real, high-quality and calculated.
And after all, everyone understands that not a single bunker, not a single super-protected structure will save from death, a painful death, even if delayed for years. But, the American is located near the borders of Russia. Russia is taking adequate measures, and then what? And how many factors and events are simply impossible to calculate? And when will people learn to learn from their history? Perhaps then the nuclear apocalypse will be a thing of the past forever.
Terrorist attacks, armed conflicts and disputes between the leaders of leading countries... Recently, such events are happening more and more often and suggest thoughts about a new war that will affect all states of the globe. There is an opinion that the Third World War has already begun. It is fought not on the battlefield, but on the Internet: through mutual attacks and data distortion. Alas, if the battles turn into reality, they can use nuclear weapons and other modern technologies. This threatens with a huge number of victims and destruction.
It is not surprising that more and more people are wondering: is the third world war awaiting the planet? There are a lot of opinions on this matter. We have collected all available information to give you the big picture.
Clairvoyant prophecies
In difficult times, even skeptics turn to the works of astrologers and psychics in the hope of positive forecasts. Unfortunately, this is not the most reliable source. Often, under the name of a well-known or not very visionary, fictitious "revelations" are printed. Surprisingly detailed "prophecies" by Vanga, Nostradamus, Edgar Cayce and other prominent clairvoyants can be found on the Internet.
Many clairvoyants predict a cataclysm, but will it be a world war?
Many of the predictions relate to the Third World War, the role of Russia and Ukraine in the battles, the conflict in the Donbass, and so on. Such data should be carefully checked. The older the prediction, the less clear information it provides. As a rule, the real prophecies of clairvoyants are very vague and can be interpreted in different ways. Here are some of these predictions. Believe them or not, the choice is yours.
Vanga's predictions
At the end of the last century, the Bulgarian seer promised the beginning of devastating battles: “ War will be everywhere, between all peoples". According to Vanga, the events described by her will be equal in scale to the biblical Apocalypse. They will start, when a person loses the ability to empathize". Religion should be the cause of the conflict.
It can be assumed that the danger comes from the Islamic East, where the terrorist organization ISIS operates. According to Vanga, the war will be accompanied by a huge number of catastrophes and natural disasters. But the seer did not name the exact dates. She told the listeners that it was not they who would see the war, but their children - today's youth.
Prediction of the Matrona of Moscow
A blind Russian seer made similar predictions. One of the last predictions of the saint has become the subject of much controversy. " There will be no war, without war you will all die, there will be many victims, all the dead will lie on the ground ... Without war, the war goes on!"- these are the words. But what would that mean? One of the interpretations suggests a cosmic catastrophe, the other - an incurable disease, from which many people will die. As an option consider an ecological cataclysm.
According to Matrona's predictions, not the Third World War awaits the earth, but an inevitable ecological catastrophe
On the Internet, you can read that Matrona's words refer to 2017. But it's not. The seer, like many of her colleagues, rarely mentioned clear dates. By the way, the terrible prophecy has a continuation: “ At sunset, all people will fall to the ground, and at sunrise they will rise, and the world will become different.". Matrona promised the Russian people salvation and rebirth.
Nostradamus' prediction
The legendary seer interpreted the future by the movement of celestial bodies. He passed on his knowledge in collections of almanacs, consisting of quatrains - one for each year. These quatrains cannot be taken literally. Here is a cryptic verse related to the coming year 2017:
“Out of rage, someone will wait for water,
The army is agitated with great fury.
The Nobles are loaded onto 17 ships
Along the Rhone; the messenger arrived late.
Most likely, the predictor had in mind a catastrophe at sea. The Rhone River is located in France, and the events described are most likely to occur there. But this quatrain hardly portends a global conflict. As for the near future, disturbing hints can be seen in the next quatrain. The verse refers to 2018 and contains the following lines:
“The fortress is undermined, and the old freethinker
Show the Genevans the traces of Nir.”
According to one interpretation, World War III will break out in Iran
The enigmatic "Nira" is considered as an anagram of the word "Iran". Accordingly, the threat of the Third World War may come from this country. A possible initiator of the war is the Non-Aligned Movement. By "Genevians" can be understood the United Nations. Its headquarters is located in the Swiss city of Geneva.
Pavel Globa's prediction
A well-known Russian astrologer is sure that the confrontation between the superpowers will not go beyond the Cold War. At the same time, the world is facing serious economic shocks. Poverty and unemployment will peak in many countries. The United States and Europe will lose their positions on the world stage.
But Russia will improve its well-being thanks to energy resources. Subsequently, the former Soviet states will join the Russian Federation: Kazakhstan, Belarus, perhaps even Ukraine. Russia's eastern ally, China, will also get stronger. The world is facing natural disasters. However, Globa believes that things will not come to global conflicts and a third world war.
Prediction Malahat Nazarova
A modern prophetess originally from Baku also gives fairly clear forecasts. In her prophecies, she speaks of 2017 as a turning point in history. According to Nazarova, in September it will become clear whether the Third World War is coming. At the end of every century, plus or minus ten years, chaos reigns on Earth. This period will end in 2017.
World War will be the inevitable outcome of the conflict of superpowers
The beginning of the war depends on the situation in the political arena. If the conflicting superpowers reach a compromise, the threat can be avoided. Nazarova believes that in 2017 the world will suffer many natural disasters. States will throw all their forces into the fight against cataclysms, and things will not come to international clashes. The seer also believes that in 2017 China will face a conflict with Japan. However, it is not known whether it will affect other countries.
The clairvoyant does not believe that the war will end with the Apocalypse. Life on earth is eternal, says Nazarova. According to the theory of hierarchical catastrophes, the end of the world awaits us in 2017. But let us note that practically every year the followers of this or that doctrine wait for the Apocalypse, and so far in vain. Therefore, you should not rely entirely on the opinions of seers. It is better to pay attention to the statements of politicians and experts.
Military-political forecasts
The prospect of a Third World War scares not only the inhabitants, but also those who influence the fate of the world. In 2015, American political analyst and former military man Joachim Hagopian published an article on the GlobalResearch portal. The expert draws attention to the "alarm signals" that indicate the approach of war. Hagopian writes that the strongest powers - the US and Russia - are preparing for a possible conflict. The parties enlist the support of allies. The states are guided by the EU, Russia - by China and India.
The depletion of natural energy resources, on which the well-being of many countries rests, is another prerequisite for hostilities. The expert believes that America is facing bankruptcy in the near future. This will lead to war. The opponents will be the US, NATO and Israel on the one hand, and Russia, India and China on the other. Australia will side with the US. But a separate conflict will begin between South and North Korea. Hagopian predicts that in the course of the war, entire nations can be destroyed.
The United States and Russia are considered the most likely parties to the conflict
Another American officer, former NATO chief Alexander Richard Shirreff, presents his prediction in 2017: War with Russia. The work is not a documentary, but behind the fictitious events it is easy to discern the main idea: the rash policy of the United States leads to conflict with the Russian Federation. The result will be the defeat of the States.
According to the plot, Russia captures the Baltic States, which are members of NATO. This event marks the beginning of the war. The reduction of funds allocated for the needs of the army leads to the defeat of the United States ... The Western media considered this version of events plausible. But the Russians themselves hardly believe in the capture of the Baltic states. Such a decision would be reckless for the Russian government, whose position is stronger than ever.
Possible outcome of the clash between the United States and Russia
But if we imagine that the events described will take place, we can estimate the strengths of both sides. According to British Air Force Colonel and international relations professor Ian Shields, the number of NATO military units far exceeds Russia's resources. Compare: the North Atlantic Alliance has more than 3.5 million soldiers, Russia - 800 thousand. The number of NATO tanks is 7.5 thousand versus 2.7 thousand in the Russian Federation.
But in a battle, not only the amount of resources is important. Many factors can be decisive. According to Shields, the Third World War will bear little resemblance to the Second. In battles, ultra-modern technologies, including computer technologies, can be used. The battles will become less protracted, but there will be more casualties than in any of the previous wars.
There is a possibility that World War III will become a war not of weapons, but of minds
Unlike many political scientists, Shields does not take the risk of nuclear war seriously. The use of atomic weapons will entail global destruction, which neither side wants. The expert adheres to this opinion in relation to chemical and bio-technologies. If a weapon of this type is used, it will not become the main one.
Alas, this does not mean that the Third World War will not bring significant consequences. Shields believes that the conflict will cover all areas of human life. An important role will be played by the so-called "information war", which will unfold on the Internet, television screens and newspaper pages. In addition, the war will affect the economy, finance, politics and so on. The expert believes that the battles will even be transferred to outer space.
Predictions of Vladimir Zhirinovsky
The threat of World War III is not only spoken about in the United States. In April 2016, the head of the Liberal Democratic Party, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, said that the West was preparing for a world war, which would be carried out "by the hands of the Slavs." According to the politician, the Americans' method is for Ukraine to fight against Russia, and for the United States to receive financial benefits.
Zhirinovsky emphasized that the States entered all wars at the very end, when the outcome was clear. After the end of the conflict, the United States imposed conditions favorable to America on the rest of the states. According to Zhirinovsky, it will happen this time as well. The states will enter the war when Russia captures the capital of Ukraine, and will dictate to the Russian Federation which regions of the country to transfer to neighboring states. When will these events take place?
One of the likely scenarios is a clash between the Russian Federation and Ukraine
The politician is sure that the war could break out from 2017 to 2025. After that, the world is waiting for a technical breakthrough comparable to human space flight. Russia will have such military resources that no country will dare to oppose the Russian Federation. This radical scenario is quite consistent with the spirit of the Liberal Democratic Party. But Zhirinovsky's statements rarely materialize.
The thought of World War III has been haunting minds for years. Everyone wants to know if this terrible event threatens the planet. But should anyone who claims to be a political expert or clairvoyant be trusted? Indeed, in this way we are constantly in anticipation of trouble and miss the joyful events that happen at every step.
But, nevertheless, since some have not yet been removed, and also given the rather expressive nature of the new “hegemon” president, I want to note that from the current state of relations to a possible military escalation for any reason is one step, and this need to be understood. In this connection, I believe that my thoughts on the topic of the “project of the apocalypse”, its goals and beneficiaries make sense. At least in theory...
P.S. However, I really hope that this is my last ... So.
It is absolutely clear to everyone that, since it is impossible to win in it. And although the "pre-war" hysteria is being pumped from all sides (note: the text was written a few months ago), but the majority perceive everything that happens only as a "cold war 2.0", which will never turn into a "hot" one, since, as already mentioned, "there can be no 3rd world war, because it is impossible to win in it ..."
It would seem, what else is there to talk about? But I had an odd thought.
Yes, it is impossible to win the 3rd World War. But to whom"Impossible" to win it? And this question is very important. The answer is obvious - to the participating countries.
As, in itself, the use of nuclear weapons does not mean the automatic death of all life on earth, since, firstly, not all missiles will take off (this can be taken care of); second, humanity already in total, more than a thousand warheads exploded, and the “ball” did not crack, we did not mutate, and the majority did not notice this and may not even be aware of this fact at all; thirdly, thermonuclear weapons, under certain conditions, introduce very little radiation compared to conventional nuclear weapons, and their main effect is “only” the explosion itself and the accompanying shock wave (that is, territories subjected to thermonuclear bombardment can be then relatively quickly recultivated); fourthly, after all, not only Americans have missile defense systems, but we also have them (S-300, S-400 and older systems, as well as new systems unknown to the general public, interceptor aircraft, finally) , so not every warhead will reach the target. Thus, it is necessary to understand that after the use of nuclear weapons, vast territories of the United States and Russia (and, possibly, partly of Europe) will be infected for several decades, several tens of millions of people will die almost simultaneously, and about the same number will suffer from "radiation radiation" for many years afterwards. diseases”, and... And that's it. The earth will survive, mankind will survive.
Who needs it? Who might be interested in this? Here is the right question!
Like, in this theoretically coming "new world" there is no place for "national" states, but the onset of a new "feudalism" is expected, which, of course, will differ significantly from the previous one, but the essence will remain approximately the same - the world will be divided into very small territorial formations (certain municipalities), which will be managed, in general, by international corporations (). Well, or something like that. That is, there will be “local authorities” (municipalities and other “managers in the field”) and some kind of “world government” (and again please don't laugh at this). And the “world government” is supposed to be some supreme (advisory?) governing body (by the united corporations?).
Monopoly is the highest form of existence (concentration) of capital. Global monopoly is a natural continuation of evolution capitalism and the ultimate goal for"global capital" ()."New World" under the control of the "world government", created from representatives"global capital"is the highest form of globalization.
Such radical changes require an equally radical reason, don't they?! How can "global capital" destroy "nation states"? Very simple - with the help of the global apocalypse!
It seems to me that if large "national" states unleash another "world" war, this will be a sufficient reason and basis for an attempt to abolish all large "national" states in principle. At least, there is a sense and a certain logic in this. Especially in light of the above.
Hop! - and the puzzle was formed.
What is the risk of "global capitalists"?
Yes, the number of future subjects will be reduced, but this is not very important, compared with the goal - a new world order under the control of unlimited "global capital".
In addition, all old (American and European) debts will be eliminated at the same time, and a new currency will be introduced. "", he, of course, is "golden", but only he now has plenty of debts to the rest of the world, and he will have to do something with it anyway, sooner or later. A global war is a good reason, among other things, to change money and get rid of old debts, which there is no way to get rid of in a normal way (In general, this is nonsense: the “richest” country, so to speak, “hegemon”, with the most armed army in the world, everyone around must and has no real opportunity to pay, without bringing down their own (and the world's) economy. And what is the logical way out?) At the same time, those who will own this "new money" will again , but already undividedly, without unnecessary and burdensome " democratic» fictions, own the whole world. That is, in fact, "global capitalists" do not suffer, in general, any losses - only profit and a sea of power.
The future "masters of life" are not exposed to any personal danger: they will know for sure -. And they have the means and opportunities, which are more than enough to thoroughly prepare for the "apocalypse." Including prepare in advance their small, but very armed "private" armies. And as the experience of ISIS shows: relatively small units of scumbags can successfully fight even with the largest armies of the world, and if they are better armed, motivated (and almost unlimited power is a good motivation) and create disorganization in the "regular" troops of "national" states, then the defeat and collapse of large countries and the establishment of a "new order" in their place are ensured.
In addition, in the near future (20-30 years after the "global" war, and in the case of the use of thermo-nuclear weapons, even much earlier), Russian natural resources will become available. At the same time - what is important! - without "harmful" indigenous population. This is a good bonus. Naturally, control over all natural resources will belong undividedly to the new "world government".
In order to control disparate peoples, the former huge armies will no longer be required, just like the used nuclear weapons - powerful mobile and decisive (cruel) "police" armies of private corporations will be enough. At the same time, of course, the remaining media will present this to the people as a “new great historical world achievement,” nothing else.
Therefore, the project of the apocalypse, as it seems to me, is already being written. It’s only a pity that if I turn out to be right, then I won’t experience the feeling of satisfaction from the realization of my clairvoyance, since I will evaporate, along with others, in its very first minutes ...
Such is the gesture.
P.S. By the way, you probably noticed that China is not mentioned in any way in this scenario. I wonder why, what do you think?
On the other hand, to be honest, it seems to me that China will also be partially “evaporated”, if anything ...
P.S.2 And the last thing: and, in fact, why is everyone so happy about Trump's election?
Firstly, this is just such an extravagant and expressive person who is the best fit for the role of the "apocalypse" detonator.
Secondly, Trump is the new president of the very “most armed country” that has been facing an insoluble problem of external debt for many years, and this debt of theirs from year to year is only becoming more and more cyclopean in size and less and less possible to repay, and more and more it becomes obvious to everyone.
Thirdly, Trump is the flesh and blood of the same “global capital”. That is, it is Trump and people like him who are primarily (theoretically) interested in implementing this scenario...
Well? Keep laughing?.. :)
Forecasting a global conflict is a thankless task, but when specialists discuss this issue, one has to deal with stubborn statistics. It turns out that the problem of the third world looks much more serious than it might seem at first glance.
In 2016, the Nobel Symposium was held, where Nassim Taleb refuted the theory of a decline in violence in the world, and at the same time mathematically substantiated the terrible conclusion - a big war with tens of millions of victims cannot be avoided, – reports Medium.
Ironically, the point in the long-term "intellectual war" of scientists about the prospects for real wars was put at the symposium of the Nobel Peace Committee.
The story of this "intellectual war" is interesting and exciting, like a thriller. To understand its origins, jets and currents, you need to know what preceded it and what became its catalyst.
It all started almost 20 years ago, when the concept of singularity acquired a chronological outline in connection with the publication of independent calculations by scientists from different countries, which combined the evolutionary and historical process into one progression.
The results of the calculations showed that by the middle of the 21st century, the evolution of mankind and its history, in their generally accepted understanding, can end at the same time.
Three Singularity Scenarios
Independent calculations by three scientists from Australia, Russia and the USA showed that the decreasing periods between global phase transitions in the history of the biosphere and anthroposphere form a geometric progression, the denominator of which is approximately equal to the base of natural logarithms.
Having extrapolated the hyperbolic curve into the future, all three authors came to the conclusion at the end of the last century: around the middle of the 21st century, the hyperbola turns into a vertical.
Scale invariance of the distribution of biospheric phase transitions in time (A.D. Panov / Singular point of history, 2005) This result, designated in the international literature as the Snooks-Panov Vertical, should mean that the rate of evolutionary changes tends to infinity, and the intervals between phase transitions - to zero (for more details, see here).
In accordance with this theory, in the middle of the 21st century, humanity expects a new phase transition, which will transfer humanity to a different phase of development.
There is no consensus on the reasons for this phase transition. But there are three hypotheses.
Some cite as such a reason a technological singularity - a hypothetical moment after which technological progress will become so fast and complex that it will be incomprehensible, presumably following the creation of artificial intelligence and self-replicating machines, the integration of man with computers, or a significant leap in human capabilities. brain through biotechnology.
Others consider the most likely cause of the civilizational phase transition to be a global military conflict that will either destroy humanity or throw it back to prehistoric times. In Einstein's words, "I don't know what weapons World War III will be fought with, but stones will be used in World War Four."
Still others consider the most likely combination of both of the above factors - technological progress and war, generalizing them into a single concept - "knowledge of mass destruction" (Knowledge-enabled Mass Destruction).
Nevertheless, regardless of the reasons for the phase transition of mankind, mathematically there are only three scenarios for the further course of events according to three possible attractors.
N.B. Any nonlinear system tends to some stable final states - attractors, to one of which the system comes sooner or later (although it is far from always possible to predict which one, when and in what way it will reach it).
1. Scenario 1st - development curve falling down. Such a movement towards a simple attractor is the self-destruction of civilization, the beginning of a "descending branch" of history with the prospect of a more or less painful degradation of the anthropo- and biosphere to a state of thermodynamic equilibrium (heat death). This option is most likely the result of a global war.
2. Scenario 2nd - horizontal strange attractor(horizontal sideways movement) involves the inclusion of some stabilization mechanisms for the long term. In a sense, this is also the “end of history”, since, having ceased to develop progressively, the carrier of intelligence limits the ability to control large-scale processes and becomes hostage to the natural tendencies of aging of the biota, the Earth, the Sun, etc. And this option is also similar to the result of a global war.
3. Finally, the 3rd scenario - vertical strange attractor would mean an unprecedented steep turn in the vector of "removal from nature", most likely as a result of the onset of the Technological Singularity described above.
The second and third scripts were credited by filmmakers, writers and the most cautious of visionaries.
The 3rd scenario has become a favorite plot of Hollywood (Terminator, Matrix, etc.) and technological newsmakers, visionary alarmists (Nick Bostrom, Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, etc.).
The 2nd scenario, in the form of an extrapolation of today's consumer society to a world that has not found an antidote to the nightmares of consumerism, consumption and idleness, has become the basis of many literary dystopias, starting with its first (and most successful) description in Arkady and Boris Strugatsky's novel "Predatory things of the century.
But with the first apocalyptic scenario, the most humanly obvious and terrible, everything turned out to be difficult. After all, he spoiled the cards for both business and politicians, depriving humanity of the motivation to buy more and more new things, invest in securities and vote for the same and the same politicians. Who will do this on the eve of the coming apocalypse?
In order to bring this scenario of the possible future of mankind out of the realm of mass ideas, a tried and tested method was used from the practice of propagandists and forest firefighters - to fire oncoming fire (an idea, a concept). The concept of a steady reduction in wars and violence in the world (also called the concept of a long peace) has become such a backfire.
Good angels of long peace
The main conductor of the concept of a long peace was Steven Pinker, an American cognitive psychologist, professor at Harvard University, who wrote the world bestseller The Better Angels of Our Nature on this topic. The Decline of Violence in History and Its Causes.
In his book, Pinker concluded -
the new norms of community life established by the states gradually changed human psychology itself, which began to take into account the interests and needs of other people.
The spread of literacy, democracy and the development of supranational institutions, according to Pinker, played an important role in the process of civilization. Commerce also did a good deed, demanding tolerance and ‘turning enemies into buyers’.
Demographic trends, in particular, have led to a reduction in the number of young people in the general population, which has reduced the army of people prone to violence. Technology, from the atomic bomb to television and the internet, has also weakened the incentives to start a large-scale war.
Decrease in bloodshed of wars in human history (according to Pinker) (http://mesokurtosis.com/posts/2015-05-29-taleb-pinker.html) Finally, Pinker concluded, the leaders of the superpowers have done an excellent job of ending the arms race and ending the Cold War. And the ideologies that contributed so much to the expansion of violence in the 20th century (fascism and communism) were decisively crushed.
The main conclusion from Pinker's concept is that the result of the decline in violence is the long peace observed since 1945 without global military conflicts, which humanity entered after the end of the 2nd World War.
Pinker illustrated this conclusion with extensive statistical data.
Statistics on the decline in war casualties in the world since World War 2 (Joe Posner/Vox, 2016) But since the statistical base used by Pinker to substantiate the concept of a long peace was limited to 2009, in the 2010s, after the military conflicts in Syria and Iraq, many questions arose for Pinker regarding the confirmation of his concept on new data.
Of course, it was not without criticism, which appeared immediately after the release of Pinker's bestseller. Criticized in different ways.
The reviewer for The New Yorker pointed out that the book focuses exclusively on Western Europe, and that if we add to the losses in the wars the victims of the Stalin and Mao regimes, then the number of people who died violent deaths in the middle of the 20th century will exceed hundred million.
The British philosopher reproached Pinker for speculating on science to strengthen faith in the future. He called Pinker's concept "a high-tech prayer wheel," a set of spreadsheets containing inspiring statistics on human progress, and algorithms curated to prove that progress exists.
But the main claim to Pinker's concept was formulated most clearly by a professor from Harvard. "Pinker prefers to replace lack of data with bad data"
Pinker has repeatedly responded to criticism. The most striking example of such a response - is in the journal Sociology, where he responded to several critics at once (personally to each and all in a crowd). This answer ended very effectively.
Pinker announced that, based on all the data clarifying his concept, he predicts -
The annexation of Crimea by Russia, which most likely would have become a pretext for a world military conflict in the 20th century, will not now lead to a world war, or even to a serious military conflict.
And he invited everyone to check this prediction in the coming months (it was in early March 2014).
And so it happened, and the critics, according to Pinker, were finally confounded. They had only to give up on the nimble Pinker and his uplifting utopia of good angels of a long peace.
Chronicle of "intellectual war"
Nassim Taleb's criticism of the concept of a long peace was fundamentally different from all previous ones.
According to Taleb, "Mathematicians think in objects (precisely defined and positioned), philosophers in concepts, jurists in constructions, logicians in operators, and fools in words."
And so Taleb decided to build a critique of Pinker's concept not on words (to which Pinker also responded with words "-" and in superior numbers), but on purely mathematical reasoning, which can be answered meaningfully only in the language of mathematics, and not with regular lengthy reasoning.
The main mathematical object of criticism was fat-tailed distribution(Fat Tailed Distribution). This probability distribution has the feature of exhibiting a large coefficient of skewness. In the "fat tail" of the graph of this distribution, "Black Swans" - "rare, unlikely, but very significant events" - are often hidden, which makes the calculation of average values meaningless.
It will turn out like in a joke about the average temperature in the hospital - 36.6 and ten people died.
Or as in the well-known "surprise turkey", which believed that the purpose of the owner was to feed it well, and its purpose was to eat plentifully. It's always been like this, thought the turkey. But then Christmas came, and surprise surprise.
Taleb's illustration of the "Turkey Surprise": The "Long Peace" is a Statistical Illusion. 
Taleb's illustration of the "turkey surprise": exactly the same distribution - second hundred years (The “Long Peace” is a Statistical Illusion) It follows from Taleb's argument that the theory of a long peace - is just nonsense of an idealist who does not understand the mathematical subtleties when processing distributions with "fat tails". Taleb compared the theory of a reduction in the number of wars and violence with the theory of a stock market rising without crashes.
Pinker's response to Taleb's criticism soon appeared, followed by another intellectual salvo from Taleb. Now co-authored with Pasquale Cirillo, Professor at Delft University of Technology.
The latest scientific work is of great value in addition to criticizing the concept of a long peace. In it, the authors, for the first time in the world, mathematically proved that the historical data on military losses used to this day are exaggerated many times over. The authors not only proved this, but also did a great job of cleaning data from several thousand historical sources.
But the main achievement of this work is that the authors, using
Theory of extreme values - Extreme value theory (a special section of mathematical statistics for working with "Black Swans" that have a maximum probability deviation from the mean value - hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, etc.)
And the Generalized Pareto distribution (allows you to model only the tail of the distribution),
proved the following 2 most important statements.
1. The hypothesis of a decrease in violence (whether throughout history or over the past 70 years) is statistically unreliable.
2. Since in the entire previous history, wars with the maximum number of deaths occurred approximately once every 100 years, the 70+ years that have passed since the 2nd World War cannot be an argument for any change in the trend towards a decrease in violence in the world.
In fairness, it should be mentioned that this outstanding work of Taleb and Cyrillo was not without criticism.
Critics, first alone, and then together with Pinker, tried (again only in words) to cast doubt on the very approach of Taleb and Cirillo.
Like, who will prove that after 1945 the trend that existed in all previous centuries has not changed? - an interesting argument that allows you to question anything from Newton's laws to the daily sunrise (who will prove that tomorrow it will rise from 100%?).
Another critic tried to challenge the main weapon of Taleb and Cyrillo, their mathematical method. But as a result, the argument turned out to be purely verbal. Like, the theory of limiting values is a good and correct thing, but who said that it is applicable when analyzing the number of military casualties over time? It turns out again - who will prove ... ?
In general, those who wish to trace in detail the entire chronicle of the "intellectual war" can easily do this by reading, for example, this (there is even
Mathematical Encyclopedia
Holy Blessed Tsarevich Dimitry of Uglich (†1591)
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